official Kerry campaign says race is stable with kerry looking great.....

[msongs]

this is the latest thread posted on the kerry blog:

RACE STABLE ON FINAL WEEKEND

Date: October 30, 2004
To: Interested parties

From: Stan Greenberg

RE: RACE STABLE ON FINAL WEEKEND

Review of public and overnight polls

To give some perspective on the race in its final weekend, we might recall what Wolf Blitzer said on the day before the election, 2000: “And now, let’s take a look at the latest poll numbers. The new CNN/USA Gallup Tracking Poll results are being released at this hour. It shows George W. Bush with 48 percent, Al Gore 43 percent, Ralph Nader with 4 percent, Pat Buchanan with 1 percent. And those numbers are similar to other tracking polls,” going on to cite the Bush lead in polls for ABC, Washington Post, NBC-Wall Street Journal, CBS and MSNBC-Reuters-Zogby.

In fact, the public polls in 2004 show a remarkably stable and dead-locked race, with Bush stuck somewhere between 47 and 48 percent, short of what an incumbent should have to secure re-election.

http://blog.johnkerry.com/blog/archives/003736.html#more

Msongs
Riverside Ca

[newsguyatl]

1. good news, but

i saw some scary pennyslvania, wisconsin and michigan polls today.

if bush gets any TWO of these, kerry's toast.



i don't think he will of course, but i'm still on edge.

[OldLeftieLawyer]

2. Polls are essentially ............

.........meaningless.

There's one large constituency the polls can't evaluate - people who use cell phones.

None of my kids has a land line, and their friends and classmates are the same.

They're going long for Kerry. And the pollsters can't find them.

Buck up. Big John's gonna win big.

[Hokie]

4. I have two kids with cell phones, no land lines

Both already voted fro Kerry.

[cubsfan forever]

5. What scary polls? Those three aren't even

in play.

Professor 2

[newsguyatl]

7. those three aren't in play huh?

lol, tell that to the bush and kerry camps.

guess that's why bush was in michigan AND wisconsin today eh?

[cubsfan forever]

9. Like I said, the Bushies are wasting their time, but

that's fine with me. Maybe Bunnypants needed a good cold one, and Wisconsin is, well, God's Country. Or didn't you know that?
Just asking.

Professor 2

[sonicx]

6. MI will go Kerry I'm sure and...

PA definitely will go Kerry (with the registraion and GOTV effort there)

* has a chance in WI, but I think it will hold up up us.

Don't worry too much over polls. They all use different methods (some better than others). They all have MOE of 3 or up. Many have unrealitic partisan splits (think Gallup*). Basically, they're rollercoasters and can drive you crazy. :)

[GeorgeBushytail]

3. Encouraging news! Thanks.

[Zero Gravitas]

8. add 3 or 4

to Kerry's number for the real figure, and that is before whatever extra boost Kerry might get from newly registered voters.