State-by-State Predictions - Let's try to get a consensus!

[RememberTheCoup]

I posted my own state-by-state predictions earlier today and
modified them a couple times based on DUers' input:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?
az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1215717&mesg_id=1215717

I'd like to keep on working toward getting a consensus. Please
look at what I have so far and tell me which states you would
move to a higher or lower category. Keep in mind that I'm
trying to err on the side of caution.

STRONG BUSH
Texas		TX	 34
Georgia		GA	 15
Indiana		IN	 11
Alabama		AL	  9
Kentucky	KT	  8
South Carolina	SC	  8
Idaho		ID	  4
Oklahoma	OK	  7
Kansas		KA	  6
Mississippi	MS	  6
Nebraska	NE	  5
Utah		UT	  5
West Virginia	WV	  5
Alaska		AK	  3
Montana		MT	  3
North Dakota	ND	  3
South Dakota	SD	  3
Wyoming		WY	  3
TOTAL 			138

WEAK BUSH
North Carolina	NC	 15
Virginia	VA	 13
Missouri	MO	 11
Tennessee	TN	 11
Arizona		AZ	 10
Louisiana	LA	  9
TOTAL 			 69

BARELY BUSH
Nevada		NV	  5
TOTAL 			  5

TOSSUP
Florida		FL	 27
Colorado	CO	  9
Arkansas	AR	  6
New Mexico	NM	  5
TOTAL 			 47

BARELY KERRY
Ohio		OH	 20
Iowa		IA	  7
Hawaii		HI	  4
TOTAL 			 31

WEAK KERRY
Michigan	MI	 17
Minnesota	MN	 10
Wisconsin	WI	 10
New Hampshire	NH	  4
TOTAL 			 41

STRONG KERRY
California	CA	 55
New York	NY	 31
Illinois	IL	 21
Pennsylvania	PA	 21
New Jersey	NJ	 15
Massachusetts	MA	 12
Washington	WA	 11
Maryland	MD	 10
Connecticut	CT	  7
Oregon		OR	  7
Maine		ME	  4
Rhode Island	RI	  4
Delaware	DE	  3
Dist of Columb	DC	  3
Vermont		VT	  3
TOTAL 			207

[RememberTheCoup]

1. Come on, people...!

Is every thread that's not about the OBL tape going to sink? :-(

:kick:

[RememberTheCoup]

2. anyone?

:shrug:

[RememberTheCoup]

3. one more try...

:kick:

[July]

4. Okay, I'll bite.

I think your lists look good. In "tossups," I'd give NM to Kerry, and possibly AR. FL should be Kerry, but I keep it out of my figuring because we know they're corrupt (a sad statement on our so-called democracy). So, we're in agreement, pretty much.

[RememberTheCoup]

5. Thanks!

I agree about Florida. I'd make it stronger for Kerry but I'm too worried about vote theft. I'm going to keep tweaking this list as I go along, based on input like yours. :hi:

[fujiyama]

6. The way I see it

is at this point, the race is really about IA, WI, OH, FL, and NM.

I'm assuming Kerry will win MI and PA and the rest of the northeast as well, including NH. That is vital. He MUST win them all. The west coast is locked this time. I'm not really as worried about Hawaii as everyone else...but it is important he wins it. It's only 4 votes, but it matters. I don't think they'll make up the 17% that Gore beat Bush by in the state though.

Kerry's had pretty consistant leads in both MI and PA and will win them with a strong GOTV.

The true toss ups at this point are: MN, WI (Both 10 EVs though MN may be considered barely or weak Kerry...same goes with OH), IA (7), NM (5) and of course OH (20) and FL (27).

If the strategy is to win with OH, then he must win all of the northeast, MI, the west coast, MN, and WI...or...two from the following category: NM, IA, or NV.

I'm not relying heavilly on upsets in other states like CO or WV. I find it unlikely KErry will win them. That doesn't mean I'd give up on them. They just aren't as likely.

Florida is really a wild card. If Kerry carries the state, this election is most likely over...It's 7 more EVs than OH, so its an even bigger prize. If he carries both FL and OH, he's the next president.

Early voting returns look good in FL and IA. Vilsack said Kerry is up by around 60, 000 and that Bush may not be able to make that up. I hope he's right. Gore won the state by absentee ballots, and actually got less votes at the polls on election day. Kerry is doing well in Miami Dade County as well as Broward. He also is faring well in polls of the I-4.

[RememberTheCoup]

7. How do you feel about those 5 states you named?

Here's what I have now:

IA - barely Kerry
WI - weak Kerry
OH - barely Kerry
FL - tossup
NM - tossup

What do you think of those categories?

[fujiyama]

8. That sounds about right

but oddly enough I'm feeling better about OH than I am about WI, so I'd probably downgrade WI to barely Kerry.

[RememberTheCoup]

9. Thanks!

I'll incorporate that into my next version.

[fujiyama]

10. BTW

There's an interesting site that gives most new poll numbers.

www.dalythoughts.com It might give you some idea on how to organize it. He's actually Bush supporter, and while I don't always agree with his categorization, he's usually pretty consistant in his analysis and methadology.

[RememberTheCoup]

11. Thanks again!

:)

[RememberTheCoup]

12. kick

:kick:

[terrya]

13. Illinois: that sounds about right. A HUGE turnout by African-Americans...

for Obama. Kerry will benefit, in a big way, because of it.