THIS Poll shows Kerry WINS in a SIX POINT BLOW-OUT!!!

[seventhson]

33% of young (and women) voters not being polled, the cell phone vote:



Judging by this poll --- which I think is a fair reflection of the populace even with such a small sample fully ONE THIRD of America has ONLY a cell phone.

If we extrapolate that the majority of those with cell phone users are young folks and women likely to vote for Kerry by a 60-40 margin (which I think are fair or even conservative numbers given my other - College - poll and given all that we know about the issues of war, choice and the draft) then this polls conclusion is that

If all those being polled are 50-50 (being generous to Bush and paying undue attention to the noncell phone using polls) ---

And


The ONE THIRD of voters who have cell phones who are NOT being polled break 60-40 for Kerry

THEN


the RESULTS of the POPULAR VOTE will be:

53% Kerry to 47% Bush - OR a SIX POINT BLOWOUT!!!

Since the battleground states have college kids and cell phone users probably in relatively similar amounts, they will break clearly for Kerry and the electoral college will also be a blowout for Kerry! 300+ to about 200 something

This is based on MY DU polls HERE and based on factors which are NOT being considered by the Pollsters.

See the Polls HERE:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1205690&mesg_id=1205690

AND

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1205357



NOTE: GRANTED THAT THOUGH MY METHODOLOGY MAY NOT BE VERY SCIENTIFIC, IT IS PROBABLY ABOUT AS SCIENTIFIC AS THE POLLS WHO ONLY GET ONE PERSON IN SIX RESPONDING AND WHICH DO NOT COUNT FIRST TIME VOTERS AS LIKELY VOTERS AND WHO CANNOT POLL CELL PHONE USERS.

This is also the perspective shared by most who are paying attention.

[liberalmuse]

1. I have to agree with you.

Here's to a mandate, the electoral vote AND the popular vote. 6%. I love them figures!

[seventhson]

3. I think this is a pretty accurate way to assess the poll numbers

which everyone says the actual pollsters are not doing.

AND I think this is why Zogby siad Kerry will win last night on John Stewart and whgy Bob Sheiffer said the youth vote (not being polled) will be the deciding factor.

Schieffer said"nobody knows" how they will vote.

But the KIDS know how they will vote.

NO BUSH for sure.

I think giving Bush 40% of the youth vote is generous but may be offset by the socalled "security moms" who are more afraid of terrorists than they are of Bush killing their sons and daughters in a terrorist war

[seventhson]

2. Poll Formula:

Standard Polls show electorate 50-50

Cell phone only users (not being polled) equal One Third of Total Voters.

Therefore polled voters represent Two Thirds of the electorate.

Polled Voter Breakdown is therefore 33% Kerry 33% Bush

Not Polled Cell Phone users (33%)
(broken down 60-40) 20% Kerry 14% Bush*



Totals 53% Kerry 47% Bush





* with all the .33 percentiles I gave them all to Bush for an extra point here so the numbers equal 100%

[seventhson]

4. BTW Please TAKE the polls and add comments here or there

If you take a look you will see that my methodology is pretty sound but please tell me if I am full of --it.

[nickinSTL]

5. ONE THIRD?!?

You're telling me that ONE THIRD of voters only have cell phones?

I find that hard to believe. I mean, most people I know HAVE cell phones, but I don't know ANYONE who has ONLY a cell phone.

I suspect this number is too high.

I hope the end conclusion is right (blow-out), but I have trouble believing that there are that many people without land-line phones.

[seventhson]

6. Read the poll I linked

it may be a small sample but I think it (at least) reflects the youth voters.

[nickinSTL]

7. So, one third of DUers

have only a cellphone?

I'm not convinced that that's representative of the nation's voters.

[seventhson]

8. Fair enough

but I think it probably is because owning mobile phones are NOT a politically motivated thing.

It is probably more a matter of age and economics.

But my bet is that younger voters and those who are better off (can afford a mobile phone) are MORE likely to vote in THIS election for Kerry.