Why should internal polls be any better than public ones?

[kostya]

What do the campaigns do differently? They only have the same mechanisms and limitations as the other polls, yes, no? - K

[DaveinMD]

1. because

campaigns spend more for these polls. These polls are conducted more carefully and the questions are worded very carefully. Pollsters that get it wrong too often don't get work in the future.

[Shopaholic]

2. They interview more people

and therefore the margin of error also tends to be much lower-hence, they are far more accurate-with MOE's of 2% or less

[geek tragedy]

3. They're more expensive.

Gallup is done to make money, so it's done on the cheap. Moreover, all Gallup et al need is a set of numbers--accuracy adds little to the value.

In contrast, the inhouse polling above all has to be accurate. So, they don't skimp on the costs of getting it right.

[mvd]

8. Yes, when campaign money is on the line,

I'm sure they do make a greater effort to be accurate.

[missouri dem]

4. Their polling is based on the results of phone banks and much bigger

samples than regular polling. Here in Missouri I imagine we have contacted at least 1,000,000 voters.

[DaveinMD]

7. phone banking results

are not part of internal polling.

[sandnsea]

5. Did you see the Gallup questionairre?

According to their standarnds, if you haven't voted in your precinct before and don't know where it is yet, you're not a likely voter. That means no new registers. Internal polls try to be alot more careful than that, they have to be. They also pull all of our phone calls, when we circle the 1's and 2's, and make judgements based on that too. They have alot more to draw from.

[DaveinMD]

6. By the way

Celinda Lake charges over $20,000 for a baseline poll for a congressional campaign. She's work the expense because she gets it right. I wouldn't pay Gallup $5000.

[RoyGBiv]

9. 50 Cents

I wouldn't pay Gallup 50 cents. You could get a statistical analysis class at a local university to do one as a project for next to nothing, and it'd be just as accurate, meaning not very.