Confusing Internals In WAPO Poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

How can Kerry be leading among women by six ,losing men by three and only be up by one?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/2004297/q3_lean/sex/index.html


Look at the party numbers... Kerry and Bush are about even in the support they get from their party and Kerry has a nice lead among indys....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/2004297/q3_lean/party/index.html


Shouldn't he up a bit more...

[Doosh]

1. if Kerry loses the male vote by only 3%, it's a landslide

seems like the WaPo has bent over backwards to keep Bush in the game, but we see the panic in his campaign advisors and we know they have the cold, hard, internal numbers.

it should really be 52-46 Kerry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Doesn't Simple Math Demand He Be Up By Three...

Gender is a binary characteristic...

[louis c]

14. Here's the Math

Woman +6
Men -3
---------
Total +3

Divided by 2 (Half male, half female vote). Equals 1.5%.

Example:

Woman Kerry 53 to Bush 47
Men Bush 51.5 to Kerry 48.5
-------------------------

The difference is 101.5 to 98.5 of 200 responses, not 100.

So, the difference is 3 into 200, not 3 into 100. The result is 1.5%. If it's 1.4%, it will be rounded down to 1%.

I do agree, however, even doing my math, we are closer to rounding up to 2% than down to 1%.

[HFishbine]

16. binary characteristic, but not

equally divided. There are more women in the population and it shows in voter turnout. In 2000 52% of voters were women.

http://www.udel.edu/poscir/road/course/exitpollsindex.html

[NYCliberal]

6. WaPo a shill for Bush??

[requiem99]

9. Someone named "NYCliberal" that thinks WAPO might be a Bush shill?

SNIFF SNIFF

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. no- 51-48

i think

[lil-petunia]

2. silly Dem. Men's votes are weighted heavier than women's!

Everybody knows that.

seriously, I suspect that the polls ##s are going to start heading hard for Kerry. Gallup cannot afford to be embarrassed again. More and more people I meet are voting Kerry. including GOPers of decades past. Ever see a steam roller start moving down hill? Either join it, of get out of the way.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. there are more women in the electorate and women vote in higher numbers

nt

[lil-petunia]

15. well, someone should let Gallup know. He might be surprised

on the other hand, being a paid shill for the GOP probably pays better.

[jefferson_dem]

5. I'll sacrifice a three point partisan loyalty edge for a 9 pt. indy edge

any fucking day. Seems to me that the only explanation for the smallish one point Kerry edge given these numbers is if the partisan weighting does not reflect previous turnout numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. WAPO Weights But They Have Their Own Weighting System

nt

[sonicx]

7. WP/ABC doesn't weight polls to 2000's exit poll model

of 39/35/26 dem/rep/ind

WP's poll probably has a few more pukes in it than will actually vote.

[rockydem]

10. How about those Iowa electronic markets?

Yesterday I read Bush was falling like a rock in those...

[pabloseb]

12. Makes sense if you consider rounding

Up 6 among women and down 3 among men would translate, assuming a 50/50 split between men and women, into a 1.5 lead. In fact women comprise a slight majority of the electorate, but it still could be that Kerry is leading by 5.7 among women (51%) and trailing by 3.2 among men (49%)... that would give a 1.3 lead to Kerry. So after rounding everything makes sense.

[xrepub]

13. goog answer, makes sense