CUT THRU THE MEDIA FOG...KERRY IS CLOSING THE DEAL

[TruthIsAll]

Here is graphical proof...

Kerry’s state-poll weighted national percentage vs. Bush has been trending upward.


His win probability is approaching 100%.


Kerry’s projected national vote percentage is increasing.


What are Kerry’s chances if he gets 2/3 of the undecided vote? Very high.


Kerry is surging in the Battleground states, especially Ohio.


Here are his win probabilities for these states.


He has reversed his September decline in the polls.


The pollsters now call it a dead heat. But they don’t consider that undecided voters break for the challenger.


Bush job approval is heading down to 48%.


The more polls we include and average in a group, the smaller the margin of error around the mean.


The Monte Carlo method consists of 5000 simulated election trials.
It calculates the probability of a Kerry win, based on the number of EV wins.


The EV simulation outcomes are normally distributed around his mean (expected) electoral vote.




Interested in the latest polling results? Want an introduction to the methodology?
Then go here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[indigobusiness]

1. This is most telling

[radfringe]

2. hate to keep harping on heating oil

but it's only october and in my area our oil is $1.89 a gallon

so why am I harping on heating oil in this post? ok -- here's what Edwards (in his role as an attack dog) has to ask/say

"when bush invaded Iraq we were told alot of things - among them was that oil will flow and prices will go down.... It's october, and a colder than normal winter is predicted -- where's the oil? Families will be hurting this winter, and some will even die as they try to heat their homes in unsafe ways because they can't afford to pay for heating oil and still be able to pay their bills and buy food...."