Harris: Bush Leads by Eight Points – or Two – Depending on LV Definition

[tritsofme]

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=507

Race appears tighter in swing states

With only two weeks to go before the election, a new Harris Poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator John Kerry, but the size of the lead depends on how we define likely voters. And in 17 swing states – in which votes for President Bush and Vice President Al Gore were virtually tied in the 2000 elections – Senator Kerry is doing better and, using one definition of likely voters, the poll shows him ahead. However, the sampling error on this sub-sample in the swing states is substantially higher than for the nationwide sample.

These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone between October 14 and 17, 2004.

Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding all those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which case it would be wrong to exclude them.

Adding to the confusion about how to define likely voters (and Harris Interactive® has not yet decided which definition to use in our final predictions) this poll suggests that Senator Kerry may be doing better in the swing states, in which the battle for electoral college votes will be decided.

In 17 swing states (where the total popular vote was tied 48% to 48% in the 2000 election) this poll shows Senator Kerry with a seven-point lead using one definition of likely voters (51% to 44%) and a tie using the other definition (47% each). While these numbers should be treated with caution because of the small sample sizes, they suggest the possibility that the popular vote and the electoral college vote may divide differently, as they did in 2000
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[tritsofme]

1. kick

[progressivebydesign]

2. And.. Harris said later..

..if we leave out ALL left handed Librans, the poll numbers skew heavily BACK to Bush. However, if we include people that can touch their tongue to their nose, well.. it swings back to Kerry.

The moral of the story? Polls are useless, even when they show our guy ahead! Washington State is reporting an expected 84% TURNOUT!! 84%!!! The last time they came close to that was 1960, and after WWII. This election will be like none other.. and I guarantee, it's the newly registered, young voters that will make the difference. For us.

[asjr]

3. Is that Katherine Harris?

[tritsofme]

4. lol, no

They are one of the oldest and most respected polling outfits in the country.

[underpants]

5. WV VA NC TN all within 3 points

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/

[HeldsBelds]

6. I want Bush to win the popular vote and Kerry the EC

It would be the funniest thing ever to see the republicans whining about it and secondly maybe it will be the impetus to scrap the whole stupid electoral college system once and for all.

[pabloseb]

7. Kerry is leading in swing states!!!!!!!

The best thing about harris poll is its battleground subsample:

In likely voter model I (only people who have voted in the past or are < 22 yrs old) Kerry and * are tied.

In likely voter model II (people who are registered to vote and expressed their determination to vote) Kerry is ahead by 7 points.

Since model II is closer to reality (though perhaps reality is some kind of weighted average), this is good news.

[MallRat]

8. Ladies and gentlemen, we now have a gauge of new voter sentiment.

"Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding all those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%)."

There you have it.

If an 8-point lead evaporates into a statistical dead heat, then Kerry is leading overwhelmingly among new voters who are "absolutely certain" to vote.

The Bush campaign, the pollsters, and the media whores are about to be blindsided, folks. Kerry's real polling numbers are way, way better than anyone knows.

Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin... hell, maybe even Florida. Every state that shows Kerry in a statistical dead-heat with Bush is going blue.

I smell landslide.

-MR