Analyzing all the states

[Doosh]

Maine- leaning Kerry, still not safe, but no big gain or loss either way, though it would be nice to have it and build an all blue northeast. Kerry has been up consistantly 3-5 points and it seems to have stabilized. Probable Kerry.

New Hampshire- volatile as usual, but looks to be in the Kerry camp this time around. Leans Kerry

Vermont- Solid Kerry country, he leads by double digits. safe Kerry

Massachusetts- safe Kerry, nuff said

New York- bluest of the blue, safe Kerry

New Jersey- very dissapointed in you, polls are all over the place, but all show a Kerry lead, some by 9, some by 6, some by (gulp) 2??? I feel we're up about 6-7 here, so SAFE KERRY.....but not as safe at it should be.

Pennsylvania- Kerry is starting to inch away here, whispers about Bush conceding here. Kerry up about 2-3, LEANS KERRY.....but might be probable Kerry by next week

Rhode Island- tiny old reliable, safe Kerry

Delaware- suffering from NJ syndrome, safe Kerry, but he should be further ahead.

Maryland- gave us a scare by flirting with Bush after the GOP convention, now back to safe Kerry

West Virginia- not solid Bush, but Kerry might've missed a chance to take it. probable Bush

Virginia- latest poll shows Kerry only down 3, not sure if it's believable but Virginia could be a pleasant surprise. so far....leans Bush

NC- flirted with Kerry, married Bush

SC- Ditto

Ga, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky- hopeless, safe Bush

Ohio- Once looked like probable Bush, but Kerry made a charge here, it's a true tossup, right now it just barely leans Kerry.

Michigan- Bush campaign dreamed of an upset here, but Kerry has closed the deal and will win the state by a bigger margin than Gore in 2000. Probable Kerry

Wisconsin- Once looked like probable, even safe Bush, now another true tossup that leans a new direction every day.

Minnesota- Bush thought he could make a run here, he should think again. Probable Kerry.

Iowa- Volatile like wisconsin, but they got to know Kerry well here during the primaries and liked what they saw from him and edwards, leans Kerry.

Missouri- Bush hasn't been able to close the deal here, Kerry might've made a mistake pulling out so early. leans bush

arkansas- ditto, Kerry is running stronger than gore. Let the big dog get 7-10 more days of rest, then unleash him on this state. true tossup

louisiana- probable bush, but unpredictable enough where we have to keep an eye on it.

TX, OK, Kansas, Nebraska, ND, SD, Wyoming, Idaho Utah- hopeless, utterly hopeless.

Colorado- Flirted with Kerry, hasn't married Bush yet, though they are going his way. probable Bush, probable post election lawsuits

Arizona- very dissapointing, safe Bush

New Mexico- a true tossup all the way, hasn't budged while Arizona fell off the RW cliff. leans Bush, but kerry has a solid chance to take it as well.

Nevada- neck and neck, leaning kerry

California- safe kerry, arnold made no difference after all

Oregon- probable Kerry, up about 5-6 points consistantly, we won't have to bite our nails like in 2000. He did a good job at closing the deal here.

Washington- the cobain state, trending leftward, safe Kerry.

Florida- tossup, trending kerry recently, Bush losing his grip.

Hawaii- strong kerry

alaska- ugh

[NMDemDist2]

1. you are wrong about AZ

the last Zogby poll had us within the MOE and we have registered tons of folks in Maricopa county

Date Pollster Kerry Bush Nader
Oct 11 Northern Arizona Univ. 44 49 0
Oct 7 Survey 41 55 0
Oct 4 Arizona State Univ. 38 48 0
Oct 5 Zogby 47 50 0
Sep 29 Survey USA 44 53 0
Sep 26 Arizona State Univ. 38 49 0
Sep 23 Survey USA 43 54 0
Sep 17 Zogby 48 49 3
Sep 14 Mason-Dixon 39 50 0
Sep 14 American Res. Group 43 49 1
Aug 1 Market Solutions 45 48 0

survey USA is bogus

[noahmijo]

2. Agreed VERY wrong about Az

Nobody in Az has polled cell phone users or even college students.

College Students will largely decide which way the vote goes, and those of us working the front lines at the UofA (me) and ASU know that Kerry will get the college student vote at least at the UofA he will.

Plus two words Janet Napalitano.

[JusticeForAll]

3. Very Very wrong about AZ

[debatepro]

4. MI - Michael Moore

100k registered voters is probably all thats needed. Give credit to the man who deserves it. Moore puts MI solid Kerry.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I'm willing to analyze the one you left out

District of Columbia = Kerry

Yeah, I know, it's not a state so your headline hold up.

I was amazed at the order you presented, not alphabetical or anything I could decipher. I probably would have forgotten 3 or more states with that method.