Bush Done in New Hampshire, Oregon?

[TomClash]

Bush has already pulled from PA and WA and I suspect Oregon and NH are next. I don't think he's been in NH in 2 weeks and Kerry can saturate that state with Mass/Vt workers. He's down by 5 in Oregon polls and Oregon is already voting.

I think by next week the battleground will be down to Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, W. Virginia, Colorado and maybe even fewer states.

The game is Florida though. Kerry can lose W. Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada and Colorado and still win the election if he takes Florida.

[BluegrassDem]

1. And hopefully he'll take Ohio!

If you he manages to pull of Ohio and Florida, it's game over! I think PA is ours. If Kerry just wins either Ohio or Florida, I think Bush is toast. It would be a miracle for him to pull out enough electoral votes.

[TomClash]

4. If he can take Ohio and Florida . . .

. . . it won't be close.

[Raven]

2. I'm in NH...we've been invaided and overrun by

Massachusetts Kerry folks! They are relentless! I don't see much Bush activity up here at all except the ads on TV. My informal bumper sticker/yard sign poll gives this state to Kerry. :-)

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Good to hear!

New Hampshire is Kerryland! :)

[Doosh]

5. latest poll shows NH tied, but it does seem Bush has given up on it

so that's 4 ev in our pocket right there

he has pulled out of PA, some polls show Kerry up by 5 or more.

they once toyed with the idea of taking Oregon which went to Gore by a split hair in 2000, but it's solidified as a 5-6 point Kerry lead, Washington is now safe.

It doesn't look like we're going to win Wisconsin, so our plan should be to pick up NH(already done) and sent Big Dog out to Arkansas in a surprise appearence. Latest poll has Arkansas a dead heat, we have a shot at it. Ark + NH = 10 electoral votes made up by losing Wisconsin.

[naufragus]

15. Big Dog says Ak is in Play

From AP wire"

Hope springs eternal: Bill Clinton (news - web sites), recovering from heart surgery, is lobbying Kerry to compete in his home state of Arkansas.

[Doosh]

16. we'd better listen to him

:)

[newyawker99]

20. Hi naufragus!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[JohnnyCougar]

6. Pull WV from that list

I think the Kerry camp has conceded there.

[eriffle]

17. yup

rumor has it that we'll lose our air support tomorrow. We've resented to guerlla advertising, calling news stations whenever we have something going on. We're going canvassing tomorrow and the press is supposed to actually follow us around, anyone have any good talking points I should convey?

[Was_Immer]

7. CNN poll has give Ohio + NH to Kerry

Sadly i cannot find the link now but its under the election stuff on cnn.com

[featherman]

8. I still like the DEMS to win in both IA and WI

as they have for the last 4 elections. Don't put too much stock in the polling. Historical trends and cultural identification are stronger indicators.
Kerry is leading in both OHio and Florida if you read between the lines and will win again in NM. I doubt that NM will even be close.
NV is the best chance at a "takeaway" over less likely chances in CO, AR, WV, etc.

[kaitykaity]

9. He and Cheney were just here in Oregon,

and I heard about a poll in two different places yesterday
that had Bush up by 5 here.

:shrug:

So I don't think the Thugs are giving up on us yet.

[TomClash]

11. ARG has Kerry up by 5 as of 10/13 . . .

and the Two Thugs won't be back.

[sandnsea]

18. That poll

Also polled District 1, isn't that a right leaning district? I don't know for sure, Wu seems to vote more towards the right than say, DeFazio. I don't think that poll was accurate. I want to know what's going on in Salem, that's what I want to know.

[beyurslf]

10. It is going ot come down to whoever wins 2 of OH, FL, and PA--and it looks

more and more like PA is certainly ours!

[seabeyond]

12. i want colorado nm nv...........and then florida

because of jeb and 2000.

but the other three cause they are around me, and i want to be snuzzled up against a bunch of blue states here in texas. well nevada isnt, but i use to live there so want nevada too. oh and all the voter registration cheating

so......cause i want. i think i should get

any one have good reason for the other states? only reasonable reasons now.

[Amaya]

13. Oregon will go to Kerry

I have some friends out there who are working for the Kerry campaign and things look very hopeful.:)

[Ravenseye]

14. Still seeing Bush ads in Pittsburgh....

...when is he 'pulling out'? cause I'm not seeing it.

He should though...PA is going for Kerry. Bank on it.

[IIgnoreNobody]

19. Bush's father

should have 'pulled out'.

[Laelth]

21. What states?

Greetings, DU!

When I'm hopeful, I say K/E win NH, PA, OH, IA, MO, NV, WV, NM, and OR. But I never bank on FL. That one will be stolen again (I must presume).

But when I'm not so hopeful, I just remember that, historically, when an incumbent President is up for re-election, the vote totals are not close. The current election is likely to be a landslide, one way or the other. We're just not sure which way it's gonna go yet.

Here's the data:

1996: Clinton (I) 49%, Dole 41%, Perot 8%: EC:379-159
1992: Clinton 43%, Bush (I) 37%, Perot 19%: EC:370-168
1984: Reagan (I) 59%, Mondale 41%: EC:525-13
1980: Reagan 51%, Carter (I) 41%, Anderson 7%: EC:489-49
1976: Carter 50%, Ford (I) 48%, McCarthy 1%: EC:297-240
1972: Nixon (I) 61%, McGovern 38%: EC:520-17
1964: Johnson (I) 61%, Goldwater 38%: EC:486-52
1956: Eisenhower (I) 57%, Stevenson 42%: EC:457-73
1948: Truman (I) 50%, Dewey 45%, Thurmond 2%: EC:303-189
1944: Roosevelt (I) 53%, Dewey 46%: EC:432-99
1940: Roosevelt (I) 55%, Willkie 45%: EC:449-82
1936: Roosevelt (I) 61%, Landon 37%, Lemke 2%: EC:523-8
1932: Roosevelt 57%, Hoover (I) 40%: EC:472-59

(I) = Incumbent

The only close election here is Carter/Ford in 1976. Perhaps the current election mirrors that one. Perhaps not, but from a historical perspective, when the country can see a President's record, it's easy to decide one way or the other, and the people tend to speak with a clear (and comparatively unified) voice.

-Laelth