Why Kerry will win.

[NJGeek]

Yesterday a close personal friend of mine, who is an apathetic yet right-leaning voter told me he isn't going to vote. He said "I don't like either of these guys." He was die-hard Bush* about a year ago. Bush* gives him no reason to get excited now, given his awful performance the past four years. Now, this is a voter that I'd love to see vote for Kerry, but it would never happen. Bush*'s ineptitude is keeping him home, and in baseball terms, thats a 1/2 game gain.

[Catfight]

1. Yup....this whole gay thing too is going to hurt them, the base

will be so torn with the hypo-criticalness of the administration that they concede their vote.

[NJGeek]

3. I heard a Kerry speech clip this morning

that had Kerry saying "Is that all you've got?" to Bush*.. Does anyone know where thats from? I think it goes along with your hypocrit point. They haven't got much, and what they've got exposes them as frauds.

[Demit]

5. George Forman: "You can run, but you can't hide" His opponent (Ali?)

said, "George! is that all you've got?"

[Catfight]

7. Mohammad Ali said, "Is that all you got," and I LOVE the fact that

Kerry once again is driving his boat right into the enemy and exposing them for the weak cowards they are. I agree...is that all they've got while soldiers die in this fucked up war of George Bush and Dick Cheney!

[cthrumatrix]

2. I've heard the same.... won't vote bush (even thought huge repug)..

this is the same as a Kerry vote

[SheilaT]

4. I've been wondering a lot

what all those who voted for Bush in 2000 but who now say they won't vote for him will vote for. Perhaps they won't vote at all in the presidential column, because many of them can't stomach Kerry (and wouldn't be voting for any Democratic nominee).

What I'd like to see is a poll that gets about 1200 voters who match as closely as is possible the likely voter profile from 2000, and ask the following questions:
1. Who did you vote for in 2000? (I'd want only voters from 2000 included in this poll)
2. Do you plan to vote this year?
3. Who will you vote for?

I'd like to see if there really is a statistically significant drop-off of Bush Supporters.

[swag]

6. Who IS voting for Kerry this year:

RL, a 26 year-old bartender who has never voted in her life. 6 months ago, she told me she was "apolitical". She registered to vote on Monday. She is voting for Kerry/Edwards this year.

Justin is about 30, a registered Republican from a family of Republicans. He's dismayed by the war, the deficit, and other stupidities. He has a brother-in-law in Fallujah. He is voting for Kerry this year.

Lycinda is 23, and is a hostess at a restaurant. She didn't vote in 2000, but this year (and partly to piss her mother off) she is voting for Kerry.

Nancy is a waitress at the same restaurant. She hasn't paid much attention, but her brother has persuaded her to vote for Kerry. She voted for Bush in 2000.

M. voted for Nader in 2000. This year she is canvassing and voting for Kerry.

K is a receptionist at a downtown firm. She and her husband are registered Republicans. They have two teenage boys and are confused about why we are in this war. They are voting for Kerry this year.

KP, SWS, AW, VL, LG, PV, WF, LF, MF, DM work at the same office. They all have varying political beliefs and different degrees of commitment. But this year, all have done at least some work for Kerry, including raising thousands of dollars for KE and the DNC to counteract the political contributions of the firm's ownership. They are all voting for Kerry this year.

[jbond56]

8. since the debate sweep

several coworkers have moved from not sure to excited to vote for Kerry.

2 R
3 Nader
2 new voters

This is a turnout election. Nobody can predict the turn out.

[NJGeek]

9. Kerry is exciting his base

I have never been so excited to vote in my life. I don't sense that type of excitment on the other side.

[SheilaT]

10. And this is just one

of many, many such reports I've been hearing for nearly two years now. So how can Bush possibly be ahead anywhere? I mean, he lost by over half a million votes in 2000, and okay, so we have this electoral college crap and what matter is the state by state vote, but still, I can't understand any polling whatsoever that doesn't show Kerry clearly in the lead everywhere.

I myself am not an enthusiastic Kerry supporter. I was a Howard Dean supporter and still feel he'd have been a far better nominee. But people like me (or the former Kucinich, Clark, whoever supporters) aren't about to vote for Bush. I just can't figure out why the polling does not pick up the huge voter switch from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004.

[mvd]

11. I still think Kerry will win by a few points

Though I think Kerry has made a couple blunders by not responding in the way I know he can. I know debates are limited, but he should have responded to the liberal accusation at least. He could have said this: "Mr. President, I find it appalling that you're accusing me of being out of the mainstream when your policies have been more right wing than this country has ever seen. My record shows a history of compromise and trying to find common ground."

[mvd]

12. Kick for positivity

:kick:

[Terran]

13. Well, unfortunately,

your friend is offset by my stupid-ass co-worker, who I just found out yesterday was a 2000 Nader voter and intends to not vote for either Bush or Kerry because Nader's not on the Missouri ballot. "It's my principles," she said, "how could I vote for Kerry when I don't support him?" I felt like screaming.

[Pragmatique]

14. don't believe ...

that your friend won't vote. Sure, he's ashamed to step-up and proclaim himself to be a Bush backer, what rational person wouldn't be ashamed. But when the time comes, he'll sneak out and cast his vote for Bush, you can bet on it.

[NJGeek]

15. doubtful

he's not registered, he moved from NY to NJ recently. wasn't excited enough to register for the shrub.

[Grillymom]

16. Vote Third Party!

My husband has convinced someone who couldn't vote for Kerry b/c he had thrown out his military ribbons. The guy is a vet himself. He respects Kerry's decision to do so, but has personal conflict with it. Anyway, he wasn't too excited about voting for Bush. So, my husband convinced him to vote Libertarian instead of voting for Bush! He, it's a vote taken away from the Pres!