GALLUP: Even oversampling repukes, Kerry has slight edge in debate

[jefferson_dem]

Standoff in Second Debate
Debate viewers: 47% say Kerry did better, 45% say Bush


PRINCETON, NJ -- Sen. John Kerry and President George W. Bush battled each other to a virtual tie in Friday night's presidential debate, according to a random sample of 515 registered voters who watched the event. Forty-seven percent of viewers said Kerry did the better job; 45% picked Bush. This is a much more positive rating than what Bush received after the first debate, which viewers said Kerry won by 53% to 37%.


Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a slightly smaller margin, 83% to 10%. But independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin, 53% to 37%.

The reason the overall figures show only a slight advantage for Kerry, despite his greater margin among his own party and winning the independent vote, is that the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%). Also, the sample of viewers support Bush over Kerry in the presidential race by 50% to 46%.

The poll shows a modest gender gap in the rating of the two candidates, with women choosing Kerry as the winner by a nine-point margin (50% to 41%), and men leaning toward Bush by a three-point margin (48% to 45%). In the first debate, male and female viewers gave virtually identical responses.

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As in the first debate, viewers were much more likely to say that Kerry expressed himself more clearly than Bush (54% to 37%), and -- on the other side -- that Bush rather than Kerry demonstrated he is tough enough for the job (53% to 40%). But Kerry's margin this time (17 points) was smaller than his margin in the first debate (28 points), additional evidence that Bush's performance was better in the second debate. On the other hand, Bush's margin on being tough enough for the job was slightly lower this time (13 points) than it was in the first debate (17 points).

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13549

[Zynx]

1. Adjust the numbers properly and you get: 51% Kerry, 42% Bush.

[snippy]

2. Pretty good numbers. Rove can't like this. n/t