Israel as Middle Eastern hegemon

[xchrom]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/ME24Ak01.html

Like the vanishing point in a perspective painting, long-term projections help us order our perceptions of what we see in front of us today. Here's one to think about, fresh from the just-released update of the United Nations' population forecasts: At constant fertility, Israel will have more young people by the end of this century than either Turkey or Iran, and more than German, Italy or Spain.

With a total fertility rate of three children per woman, Israel's total


population will rise to 24 million by the end of the present century. Iran's fertility is around 1.7 and falling, while the fertility for ethnic Turks is only 1.5 (the Kurdish minority has a fertility rate of around 4.5).

Not that the size of land armies matters much in an era of high-tech warfare, but if present trends continue, Israel will be able to field the largest land army in the Middle East. That startling data point, though, should alert analysts to a more relevant problem: among the military powers in the Middle East, Israel will be the only one with a viable population structure by the middle of this century.

That is why it is in America's interest to keep Israel as an ally. Israel is not only the strongest power in the region; in a generation or two it will be the only power in the region, the last man standing among ruined neighbors. The demographic time bomb in the region is not the Palestinian Arabs on the West Bank, as the Israeli peace party wrongly believed, but rather Israel itself.

[wuushew]

1. Another terrible piece of writing from the infamous Spengler

Its too bad the population data and its outcome have the kernel of a very interesting discussion.

Here is the basic flaws:


Overpopulation will make Israel a superpower but the Arab world will mysteriously go grey and die. Why? How?

Youth is always superior to maturity. He posts this in the Asia times? The last part of his editorializing is particluar disgusting and arrogant.

No mention of ecology or the limits of growth, though you would not expect that from a rightwing economic thinker. I guess in the future one could always film a remake of Soylent Green or the Mark of Gideon in Israel.

[xchrom]

2. i posted an interesting article from arabian business that speculated

water could wind up in the markets as a commodity.

so yes indeed -- there's a lot going on in the future or near future that could have a very interesting impact on any growing population in the middle east.

[xchrom]

3. an interview on the arab world here

A Look at the Root Causes of the Arab Revolution

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,763537,00.html

SPIEGEL: Monsieur Todd, in the middle of the Cold War, in the days of Leonid Brezhnev, you predicted the collapse of the Soviet system. In 2002, you described the economic and imperial erosion of the United States, a global superpower. And, four years ago, you and your colleague Youssef Courbage predicted the unavoidable revolution in the Arab world. Are you clairvoyant?

Todd: The academic as fortune-teller -- a tempting idea. But Courbage and I merely analyzed the reasons for a possible -- or let's say likely -- revolution in the Arab world, an inexorable change, which could also have unfolded as a gradual evolution. Our work was like that of geologists who compile the signs of an imminent earthquake or volcanic eruption. But when exactly the eruption takes place, and its form and severity -- these things cannot be predicted in an exact way.

SPIEGEL: On what indicators do you base your probability calculation?

Todd: Mainly on three factors: the rapid increase in literacy, particularly among women, a falling birthrate and a significant decline in the widespread custom of endogamy, or marriage between first cousins. This shows that the Arab societies were on a path toward cultural and mental modernization, in the course of which the individual becomes much more important as an autonomous entity.

[Igel]

6. Todd's prediction hasn't yet quite happened.

The direction of the revolutions is important. Give things a year or two to settle down. Already we hear the organizers of the Egyptian revolution saying that they need to reclaim "their" revolution. We hear the same from the Tunisian revolutionaires. The hardest part of a revolution is when the small coterie of revolutionaries has to yield "their" revolution and make it the country's revolution: The conceit is there from the beginning, but the facts to back it up isn't.

There's another prediction made a few years back that said there'd be revolution in the next decade or so, but it made no prediction as to the course of the revolution. It wasn't based on literacy, falling birthrate, etc., but on two other factors: (1) The incredible proportion of the population that was young; (2) the lack of any viable outlet for them to reach full maturity, which requires more than just being able to father a child biologically--it requires having the wherewithall to support a family and maintain your dignity. This prediction basically said there'd be an economic trigger, something that would so enrage the youth that all their frustrations would come out in the open and there'd be revolts.

People cite Todd's because it makes the revolutionaries look like us, and that's always flattering. The alternative prediction says that the extent to which the revolutionaries look like us is immaterial--the real difference is in what it means to come to manhood in a Muslim/Arab society.

[shaayecanaan]

5. I agree. I think he's a wanker...

I can remember how the Asian Times online tried to make a huge deal of Spengler revealing his identity, as if anyone really gave a toss. It used to be an interesting news source but has well and truly jumped the shark of late.

[azurnoir]

4. an interesting article to be sure one that sheds some light

if unintentionally on the continuing tug of war for land between the Israelis and Palestinians

but to put things in even more persective a comparison of population and land area between Israel and 2 of it's closest neighbors

Jordan 6,508,271 (July 2011 est.)

Israel 7,473,052 (July 2010 est.)* new figures show 7.7 million http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=219755

Lebanon 4,143,101 (July 2011 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/le.html

land area Israel 8,019 sq miles (20,770 sq km) excluding west bank

land area Lebanon 4,015 sq miles (10,400 sq km)

land area Jordan 35,637 sq miles (92,300sq km)

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/jo.htm

Israel faces a population crisis and with most of its available undeveloped land being the Negev desert that need becomes even more acute