US/Canadian Science Panel - Arctic Melting Now Inevitable - Globe & Mail

[hatrack]

OTTAWA -- Arctic scientists say Canada must develop policies now to deal with the Northwest Passage when it becomes ice-free. A panel of Canadian and U.S. scientists said yesterday it's inevitable that the melting of Arctic ice will open the passage for summer marine navigation, leading to new worries ranging from controlling pollution to halting smuggling.

Experts may still disagree about whether the thaw is part of a natural cycle or the result of human activity causing climate change, said John Falkingham, the chief of ice forecasting services for Environment Canada. But there is no doubt what's happening. "The debate has moved from if it is going to happen to when," he told a government-sponsored conference of top experts yesterday.

EDIT

The summer range of Arctic sea ice is shrinking by about 70,000 square kilometres a year, a surface area roughly equivalent to Lake Superior, said David Barber of the University of Manitoba. Dr. Barber, who has been studying the issue for 25 years, said that "for the first 15 years I was a skeptic. . . . I've moved to the position now to saying we are at the point of no return." So, when will Arctic waters will be ice-free and open for commercial navigation? Dr. Barber said estimates range from 2010 to 2100.

Sea-ice retreat is real, but need not be a disaster, said George Newton, the head of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission. "You can look at it for positive and negative effects." Melting sea ice means potentially more economic activity in the Arctic in the form of seabed mining, oil and gas exploration and shortened transport routes between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Russians, Dr. Newton said, are already thinking of ways to make money by using sea lanes along their Arctic coast. And global investors obviously see the potential. Two years ago, they devoted about $4.5-billion (U.S.) to the construction of ships capable of Arctic navigation.

EDIT

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060615.ARCTIC15/TPStory/National

Super! Economic opportunity as far as the eye can see! Great! :eyes: