First December Tropical Storm Ever Recorded Heading For Jamaica

[hatrack]

MIAMI - "Tropical Storm Odette strengthened slightly in the Caribbean on Friday and was headed toward the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica, forecasters said.

It was the first recorded tropical storm to form in the Caribbean in December, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, an increase of 5 mph over the previous night, and was centered about 290 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, early Friday. Tropical storm conditions were expected on the islands by Saturday."

EDIT

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/nation/7421716.htm

[Gman]

1. TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

000
WTNT45 KNHC 051449
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHED ODETTE THIS MORNING AND FOUND A WELL- ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW.

ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON A TURN MORE TO NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WAS OBSERVED DURING HURRICANE LENNY IN 1999 WHEN ALL MODELS INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND TURNS ODETTE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 14.2N 74.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 14.5N 73.7W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 72.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 08/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL




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[Gman]

2. TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5

000
WTNT25 KNHC 051450
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202003
1500Z FRI DEC 05 2003

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO ISLA SAONA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI AND JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 74.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 74.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA




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