Saudi plans to build 16 nuclear reactors by 2030

[FBaggins]

DUBAI, June 1 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to build 16 nuclear power reactors by 2030 which could costs more than $100 billion, a Saudi-based newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing a top official. The world's top crude exporter, Saudi is struggling to keep up with rapidly rising power demand. It has considered boosting its domestic energy capacity using nuclear reactors.

"After 10 years we will have the first two reactors," Abdul Ghani bin Melaibari, coordinator of scientific collaboration at King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, told Arab News.

...snip...

"After that, every year we will establish two, until we have 16 of them by 2030," he said. The kingdom plans to cover 20 percent of its electricity needs using nuclear energy, said Melaibari.

...snip...

Neighbouring United Arab Emirates in December 2009 awarded a South Korean consortium the contract to build four nuclear power plants worth $20.4 billion. (Reporting by Sara Anabtawi; Editing by Jon Herskovitz)

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE75004Q20110601

[closeupready]

1. This makes no sense to me. They sit on the largest proven reserves, have 364-5 days of sunlight/yea

year, and they need nuclear? Color me suspicious.

[GliderGuider]

3. They know that their oil fields are watering out, and that solar power isn't ready yet.

It makes perfect sense. This is a big fat signal to the rest of the world: the oil age is just about done.

The fact that they are even considering such a thing is should be making alarm bells ring from Moscow to Canberra.

[Yo_Mama]

19. Oil is so profitable that they import coal for electricity

They are really planning to substitute nuclear for coal.

[TheWraith]

4. The Saudis aren't stupid, they know oil runs out eventually.

And they have every reason to export their oil rather than burn it domestically for power generation.

As for sunlight, besides the fact that it would cost significantly more than the reactors per watt, sandstorms would make it difficult to keep operating at full capacity.

[FBaggins]

6. Remember also that oil isn't particularly useful for electricity generation.

It's more useful as a fuel.

[bananas]

12. They're in an arms race with Iran

http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_vying_influence_saudi_arabia_iran_nuclear.html

Issue Brief

Vying for Influence: Saudi Arabia’s Reaction to Iran’s Advancing Nuclear Program

Author: Jessica Drum, Graduate Research Assistant
Monterey Institute of International Studies
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
July 2008

<snip>

With Saudi defense spending “topping $27 billion in 2006, the highest in history,”<47i> the concern that the Gulf States are turning to nuclear weapons as an answer to security concerns is a possibility that is on the minds of analysts and policymakers. Also of importance is the purchasing power of the members of the GCC. Unlike Egypt, which is battling rumors that its nuclear ambitions will have to be put on hold due to financing difficulties, the Gulf monarchies “earned $500 billion in oil revenue in 2006 alone, and could easily finance such an expensive undertaking”<48> according to a recent report by Jane's Defense Weekly. GCC Secretary General, Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah, says: “This is not a secret and we are doing this out in the open. Our aim is to obtain the technology for peaceful purposes, no more no less. We want no bombs.”<49> The GCC has yet to announce how it will obtain nuclear fuel.

The Saudis, along with their fellow GCC members recently announced a plan to create a body that would provide enriched uranium to the states of the Middle East. Although the deal was announced as a plan for the entire region, it was clear that the announcement was aimed at Iran with King Abdullah reportedly saying that the proposal was developed to “stave off a nuclear arms race in the Gulf.”<50> While very few details have been released, the deal seems very similar to a Russian plan to provide Iran with the same service with King Abdullah adding: “We have proposed a solution, which is to create a consortium for all users of enriched uranium in the Middle East. We will do it in a collective manner through a consortium that will distribute according to needs, give each plant its own necessary amount, and ensure no use of this enriched uranium for atomic weapons.”<51> Iran’s reaction to this proposal remains to be seen.

Conclusion

As Iran continues down the path toward proliferation, several other countries in the region are following suit. Iran's moves toward nuclear technology, whether peaceful or not, persuades other countries to consider nuclear energy as not only more attractive, but also as a necessary step to keep pace in a notoriously unstable region.

<snip>

In spite of this, if Saudi Arabia continues to increase its armaments at its current rate and it’s Gulf neighbors continue to feel threatened by Iran’s nuclear program, they will likely see little alternative but to pursue some form of nuclear program combined with expanding their conventional arsenals. Any combination of the above could have disastrous consequences for the Middle East and beyond.

<snip>

[closeupready]

13. Bingo.

That's the real story here, IMO.

[bananas]

21. Yup. nt

[jimlup]

20. They think they can sell their oil for more than they would pay for nukes

They know that oil is about to become VERY expensive and they plan to live in Golden Palaces and rule the world.

[TheWraith]

2. 16 plants is only 20% of their electricity needs? How the hell much are they using?

Population of the US is 310 million, and we have 104 reactors supplying 20% of our electricity. That means that by population, each reactor supplies 600,000 people.

The population of Saudi Arabia is 27 million. 16 reactors supplying 20% of their electricity means that by population, each reactor would be supplying 330,000 people.

[FBaggins]

5. That's 20% of their 2030 estimated demand.

They're projecting rocket-fast growth in energy demands.

[GliderGuider]

7. they use 24 GW peak today, 60 GW peak by 2023...

From Wikipedia:

Electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia increased sharply during the 1990-2010 period due to rapid economic development. Peak loads reached nearly 24 GW in 2001—25 times their 1975 level-and are expected to approach 60 GW by 2023.<2> The investment needed to meet this demand may exceed $90 billion.

Electricity generation is 65% from Oil 27% from Natural Gas and 8% from steam. Generation capacity is approximately 30 GW.<2> A looming energy shortage requires Saudi Arabia to increase its capacity.

SA's electricity demand could triple by 2030.

The average Saudi today consumes only one third of the electricity as the average American. As that gap closes over the next 20 years they will need proportionately more nuclear power, if they want to spare their oil and gas for export.

[TheWraith]

8. That explains it a bit, but 20% still seems low for 16 reactors.

Unless they're building their reactors half the size of our average, which seems unlikely, or unless they're expecting much higher demand per capita. Possibly for industry? I'm not sure how much electrical demand Saudi industry has, and whether that would help bump up their per capita numbers.

[GliderGuider]

10. Think of it in terms of gigawatts, not percentages.

An average reactor supplies about a gigawatt. They will have 16 GW of reactor capacity if they build them all. They believe they will need 40 GW over today's capacity. They are indeed expecting explosive growth in electricity demand, all while their oil is going away.

[TheWraith]

14. Yeah, but unless they're building their plant substantially smaller than ours, it's the same problem

It looks like they're estimating they'll need a lot more electricity per capita than we do.

[GliderGuider]

17. Here are the numbers.

The USA today has just over 1 TW of capacity for just over 300 million people: 3000 watts per person.

SA today has about 1000 watts of generating capacity per person (27 GW for a population of 26 million), a third of US per capita capacity.

SA is planning on having 60 GW or so in place in 2025 or 2030. Their population at that point (by UN medium fertility estimates) will be somewhere just north of 40 million. That's 1500 watts per person - still only half what the USA supplies today.

The increase in SA's planned capacity has a lot more to do with population growth than increasing industrial capacity.

[madrchsod]

9. i remember bill clinton told them they should build solar panels

i`m sure the chinese would gladly trade panels for oil.....


hell solar towers would really be the way to go in saudi arbia`s deserts.

[FBaggins]

11. There's every indication that they are.

They're also (reported earlier today) looking to start their own "fracking" for natural gas.

Looks like they're planning an "anything that doesn't use crude" model for electricity generation.

[Odin2005]

15. It's a fucking desert. BUILD SOLAR, YOU MORONS.

[FBaggins]

16. They are (reportedly)... and lots of it.

But solar can only provide a portion of their electrical needs.

Perhaps you've never traveled to the M.E.?

I have... and I can tell you that they have "night" there too. :)

[GliderGuider]

18. Saudi Arabia solar energy output to match oil

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-arabia-solar-energy-output-match-oil-minister-403436.html">Saudi Arabia solar energy output to match oil

Saudi Arabia plans to generate solar electricity equalling the amount of its energy from crude exports, according to oil minister Ali Al-Naimi.

The kingdom may need to burn as much as three million barrels of oil a day by 2020 if it doesn’t improve efficiency. That’s up from 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent now to generate power facilities that are under development, Ziyad Al Shiha, the executive director of Saudi Aramco Power Systems, told reporters on May 15 at a conference in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Electricity Company will join Saudi Aramco and Showa Shell Sekiyu to develop a solar-power plant that can generate as much as 15 megawatts of electricity on Saudi Arabia’s Farasan Island, Ali al-Barrak, the head of the utility company, said June 1.

Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries need to have the right policies to encourage electricity generation from solar resources, John Krenicki, chief executive officer of GE’s energy division, said June 1 in Dammam, Saudi Arabia. “Today there is no market for solar in Saudi Arabia and the region because there are no right tariffs to support it,” he said.