Nissan’s Leaf Battery Maker Targets Cost of Less Than $9,000

[jpak]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-14/nissan-s-leaf-battery-maker-targets-cost-of-less-than-9-000.html

May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nissan Motor Co., which will start selling its Leaf electric car this year, aims to cut the cost of the vehicle’s lithium-ion battery pack to less than $370 per kilowatt-hour to make a profit from the model.

The target compares with the Japanese government’s industrywide estimate of about 150,000 yen ($1,600) per kilowatt-hour, said Masahiko Otsuka, president of Automotive Energy Supply Corp., a joint venture between Nissan, NEC Corp. and NEC Tokin Corp. that is making the battery for Nissan.

“Our target is a lot tougher” than $370, Otsuka said in an interview yesterday at AESC’s headquarters in Zama City, west of Tokyo. The cost depends on factors including the scale of production as well as resale value for recycling, he said, declining to give a time frame for the target.

The lithium-ion battery, which stores 24 kilowatt-hours of energy, is the most expensive component of the Leaf, which will sell for $32,780 in the U.S. and 3.76 million yen in Japan before government incentives for consumers. Nissan, which doesn’t sell a mass-market gasoline-electric hybrid car, is introducing the Leaf in response to government emissions rules and potentially higher oil prices.

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[anthroguy101]

1. I totally want one

I dig the Leaf. It is the vehicle of the future, as it has no internal combustion engine (unlike a certain Volt). Let it be known in the history books that Nissan was the first automaker to mass-produce a BEV. I just wish America could be the first do something like this.

[Statistical]

2. The Volt is a BEV.

It gets 100% of its motive power from electrical motor driven by battery bank. It simply has a method to recharge while driving via an internal combustion generator. If you want remove the sparkplug from the engine and never drive more than 40 miles from a plug. :)

Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf are both 2011 models so kinda hard to say Nissan Leaf was first. I like both vehicles. Honestly for EV to take off we likely need to see a dozen models so the more the merrier.

[Nederland]

5. Technically correct...

...but you can't deny the fundamental difference: the Leaf has no ICE and is 100% electric. Only time will tell if that configuration is the one that turns out to work best. IMHO, everything hinges on battery energy density. If battery density only improves modestly, then the Volt will be viewed as the first example of what future cars looked like. However, if energy density can be tripled or quadrupled from what we see today, the need for an ICE goes away completely (for ~95% of the market) and the Leaf, not the Volt, will be considered the first example of what future cars looked like. In that case the Volt will simply be lumped into the same category as the Prius: a hybrid that was a mere stepping stone on the way to the real long term solution.

Personally, my bet is on energy densities improving enough to make the leap to 100% electrics inevitable.

[Statistical]

6. Energy density is secondary to cost.

The roadster has 200 mile range and it could have even more range if necessary.

Cost is much larger contributing factor mileage limit than density.

Tesla Roadster Battery:
53Kwh 450kg. Density: 117 Wh / kg. (Vehicle curb weight 1235 kg)

Chevy Volt Battery
16Kwh 170kg. Density: 94 Wh / kg. (Vehicle curb weight 1558 kg)

Current top of the line lithium ion batteries run 150-250 Wh/kg.

So why didn't they use higher density batteries? Using current technology they could have made range 50% to 100% larger.
Simple. Cost. Higher density batteries have MUCH higher cost.

Still range isn't only limited by density. For more range they could simply use a larger battery. In Roadster a 30% larger battery would result in 30% more range but only raise curb weight 10%.

The Volt is more pronounced. 30% more battery would have likely resulted in 50% more range (Volt uses partial battery system to increase lifespan) and only result in 2% more weight.

So once again why didn't the Volt come with 60 miles battery and the Roadster come with a 300 mile battery? Right back to cost. We don't know what the density of the leaf is yet but I am sure that stat will come out and I expect it to be somewhere in the 100-120Wh/kg range because that is the sweet spot in terms of weight vs cost.

Cutting cost in half will do much more for EV than doubling energy density. Of course both are improving and we may see battery with 2x current energy density someday but it will be an even longer time before we see a battery with 2x the energy density AND half the cost per watt. :)

[Nederland]

11. Disagree

Yes, cost is obviously important. However, what will happen to the cost of batteries is not really a subject of any debate: they will come down significantly. I don't know of anyone who thinks that volume production won't result in lower prices. The real question is whether or not the technological advances (Li-Air, etc.) that some have hinted at will pan out.

[anthroguy101]

12. Let's move into the 21st century and try something new

You know what, screw batteries. Let's start using ultracapacitors (or maybe even flywheels). Why haven't any car companies adopted this idea or invested ANY money whatsoever in it? Capacitors can charge almost instantaneously, and batteries do not. With an instant charge there would be NOTHING to worry about. Is ANYBODY working on this?

[TheMadMonk]

13. 1. Discharge profile. 2. Gyroscopic moment. nt

[Greyskye]

14. for #2, paired flywheels w/ opposite spins?

Would that handle that objection?

Of course, the mass needed in order to make effective use of a flywheel energy storage system has its' own problems. :) I don't personally see them as a viable option.

[Statistical]

15. Where flywheel have potential is for rapid accelerations.

Most engines are significantly underutilized over their operating lifecycle. They have to be large for that 5% of the time when you need the power to accelerate vehicle quickly. 95% of the time engines output is much much less that rated peak output.

I remember reading about a hybrid where a flywheel is used as a booster for acceleration thus giving car higher performance and allowing smaller (lighter & cheaper) motor for 95% of the power demands.

Formula One cars have begun experimenting with this and the flywheels are relatively small. A flywheel in an EV makes integration even easier as the flywheel can be accelerated slowly by a small motor and then kinetic energy released in short rapid bursts for acceleration.

I have no idea if it makes sense from a cost/weight/maintenance standpoint but it could be useful.

[Greyskye]

16. Interesting, thanks!

I had no idea that this area was being investigated.

How about using regenerative energy to charge the flywheel in the case of the hybrids? Seems like a perfect fit.

[kristopher]

17. Regenerative braking is well researched...

The system weight is a big consideration. Generally it is most effective to use electricity since most of the components are already in place and the efficiency is high. Delivery vehicles are having a lot of success with hydraulic regenerative braking though.

[Statistical]

19. Here is some info on system used in Formula One.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_energy_recovery_system#Kinetic_Energy_Recovery_Systems



Flywheels especially small flywheels don't have very good energy to weight ratios on the other hand they have very good power to weight ratios. Lithium-ion is superior if your goal is simply to have something store energy and keep it for a while, and then discharge slowly.

Where flywheel shines is there is less roundtrip efficiency loss (kinetic energy -> generator -> battery -> electric motor -> kinetic energy). More impressive is the output in terms of POWER per kg. The system can deliver 60KW boost in acceleration for short period of time. 60KW out of a package that is only 24kg. Pretty impressive power to weight ratio.

So flywheel doesn't make much sense as a "battery" (long term storage, slow discharge). Lithium-ion is far superior.

However it can be as part of a system where the flywheel allows a much smaller/lighter/cheaper engine/motor. Since a vehicle rarely needs peak power (and when it does it is for brief periods of acceleration) a smaller motor coupled with flywheel could provide a synergy in cost, weight, efficiency.

Of course it will take some experimenting to see if the theoretical benefits are worth real world complexity.
I believe Honda said they were looking into flywheel "boost" in various platforms.

[Greyskye]

22. Very cool.

The 'boost' application was what I had in mind when I made the comment about regenerative braking earlier. Wasn't thinking about dumping the batteries, just adding on a flywheel system to help with starts. As a hybrid driver, I know that's where a lot of the juice goes.

I just read your linked article - that's really fascinating stuff! I had no idea that the technology was so advanced that there are racing teams using it to cheat! :rofl:

Seriously, a 24 kg system that supplies a "maximum power boost of 60 kW (81.6 PS, 80.4 HP) for 6.67 seconds"? That's a great augment to a standard start from a stop light.

[tinrobot]

7. Nissan is promising a 200 mile battery within a few years

Regardless of whether they deliver on this promise, I suspect the price per KwH will come down eventually, no matter if the Leaf or the Volt takes the early lead. Once prices are low enough to affordably get a few hundred miles on a charge, the advantages of the Volt go away.

Here's a clip from an article I found:

Nissan say they have been working on EV batteries for the past 18 years and are currently working on a lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathode based battery that they expect to be fitting to Leaf EVs by 2015. With double the energy density of current cells, they will give the Leaf 200 miles range on a single charge.

http://electric-vehicles-cars-bikes.blogspot.com/2010/05/nissan-say-leaf-ev-battery-pack-cost.html

[Statistical]

9. I have no doubt mileage and price will improve. Chevy however is hedging their bets.

Say cost per mile of battery reduces by a factor of 2. Now Nissan can double the battery pack but that simply gives you "more mileage" for the same price. Doesn't help to close gap with gasoline based engines. Now the Volt can simply use that cost reduction to lower the price premium and get price closer to gasoline engine.

Also notice the quote says double the energy density not double the mileage at same price point. It is possible they get higher energy density but that is sold as a premium product. For example in 2015 two Volts. Base model with 120 mile range and premium model (for $3000 more) with 200 mile range. Mileage and price are just examples.

Still Nissan may have the right stuff and Chevy might be on a dead end. Personally I think parallel hybrids (Prius) are complete dead ends. The advantage of serial research (multiple companies trying different stuff) is that wherever a breakthrough happens the overall system is improved.

Nice thing about the Volt design (100% electric powered) is that if battery prices due plummet Chevy could simply come out with an "all electric" Volt with more batteries and no generator. 90% of the car would be same. Instead of 8 kWh battery pack + engine & gas tank it would simple be 30-50 kWh battery pack. Everything else would remain the same. So they have the ability to shift quickly. Something parallel hybrid players can't do (Ford, Toyota & Honda).

[tinrobot]

10. I have no doubt Chevy will do a BEV in the next few years

They are set up pretty nicely to do that if they want.

[tinrobot]

3. I already put down my deposit

Still on the fence as to whether it's the Leaf or something else.

My big concern is that the claimed 100 mile range is very optimistic for a 24KwH battery. I think real world will be in the 70-80 mile range.

[Statistical]

4. Yeah will really need to see some reviews.

The other thing is vehicle efficiency is heavily dependent on
driving style
type of traffic
temperature

So I think we are going to see a wide range in miles per kWh. Still 100 miles is likely at the upper end. It will be possible for some drivers some of the time but not the majority of drivers under majority of conditions.

Of course the same thing applies to gasoline engines however with the ability to "fill up" at any corner gas station it is much less of a concern for average driver if they get 10% less mileage per tank than they expected.

[kristopher]

8. Electric car maker BYD to charge into home energy (Already "well below" $500/KWH)

Previously posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x245297#245297
245297,

Electric car maker BYD to charge into home energy
by Martin LaMonica
April 26, 2010 11:38 AM PDT

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--Chinese battery manufacturer BYD, which is readying a line of all-electric vehicles, plans to introduce a home energy suite that includes solar panels and batteries.

BYD, which gained prominence in the U.S. when Warren Buffet invested in the company, plans to start testing its all-electric e6 sedan in the U.S. later this year, said Michael Austin, vice president of BYD America.

High-volume auto battery manufacturing helps the company's entry into home energy products by bringing costs down, he said here on Monday at the Lux Executive Summit during a panel on energy storage. BYD plans to supply solar panels, battery packs, car charging pedestals, efficient LED lighting, and inverters to manage energy flow within a home, Austin said.

"The vehicle market is driving scale for the energy market and we're already well below $500 per kilowatt-hour (for batteries)," he said. BYD electric cars will have a range of about 250 miles, he added.

Two weeks ago, BYD announced a partnership with KB Homes to build a low-energy home in Lancaster, Calif., which is equipped with solar panels and batteries and costs about the same as comparable new homes, according to Austin. BYD America plans to offer similar systems elsewhere in the world. In the U.S. it will target communities where homeowners can finance energy-efficiency investments through property taxes over 20 years.

...company plans to introduce its home energy line in China this year, he added.

The 15-year-old company started out...

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20003421-54.html

[JohnWxy]

18. A thought: Using a car of comparable payload, the Corolla, what is the max annual gas savings?

at price for gas of $3.00 a gallon (a bit higher than it is now) if you eliminated all gas purchases you would save about $1,000 each year.

[Massacure]

20. From what I've read, an electric vehicle efficiency iof about 250 watts a mile isn't unreasonbable

You might be able to spend $3 on a gallon of gas and go 30 miles. The 7.5 kilowatt-hours to go that 30 miles would cost maybe 75 cents.

[JohnWxy]

21. If your figure is accurate that would be about $300 per year for charging (for 12,000 miles)

So the NET annual savings would be about $700. Annual savings of $700 at 5% interest rate would come to a present value of $9,068 in 13 years.

[Statistical]

23. Yeah paying $300 a year for "fuel" would be pretty cool.

If when people bought a vehicle they had to buy 5 years worth of fuel up front we likely would see a lot more alternative vehicles.

I mean something big and stupid getting 9 mpg and driving 120,000 miles over a decade is 13,000+ gallons of fuel.

At only $3 a gallon average that is 40,000. At $4 average (over next decade) that is $53,000. At $6 per gallon it is $67,000.

Suddenly that Dodge Ram Quad Cab doesn't look like such a good idea.