New Report Outlines Bold New Vision for Solar in America (10% by 2030)

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.environmentamerica.org/news-releases/new-energy-future/new-energy-future/new-report-outlines-bold-new-vision-for-solar-in-america

For Immediate Release:
2010-03-09
For More Information:
Sean Garren, 617-304-1409
Anna Aurilio, 202-683-1250 x317
Rob Sargent, 617-747-4317 Washington, D.C.

New Report Outlines Bold New Vision for Solar in America

Washington, DC – Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) and three solar business executives joined Environment America to lay out a bold new vision for solar energy in the United States. From laundromats and baseball stadiums, to homes and cars, generating energy from the sun is already enhancing energy security and reducing pollution in America. A new Environment America report outlines a vision for using the sun to meet 10 percent of the United States’ energy needs by 2030.

“Americans today import oil from a desert half a world away, in the most unsettled and dangerous region of the earth, just to power a trip to the grocery store,” said Sean Garren, “It would be much easier and more secure to harness the heat and light that strikes our rooftops every day,” he added.

“At a time when we spend $350 billion importing oil from Saudi Arabia and other countries every year, the United States must move away from foreign oil to energy independence,” Senator Sanders said. “A dramatic expansion of solar power is a clean and economical way to help break our dependence on foreign oil, reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, improve our geopolitical position, and create good-paying green jobs.”

Building a Solar Future: Repowering America’s Homes, Businesses and Industry with Solar Energy examines a wide variety of solar technologies and tools, including photovoltaics, concentrating solar power, solar water heaters, solar space heating, and passive solar design. The report makes the case that there are many ways to take advantage of the sun’s energy. Solar energy can be converted to electricity, or used for lighting, heating and cooling. It can replace the fossil fuels we burn at electric power plants, in factories, in our homes, and even in our cars. While the report outlines this vision for the future, it also profiles various applications of solar energy currently in use, such as:

• Wal-Mart’s use of skylights in has cut energy costs in some stores by 15 to 20 percent by reducing the need for electric lighting;
• Laundry facilities, hotels, hospitals and even the Boston Red Sox have adopted solar water heating to reduce their consumption of natural gas for water heating; and
• A Frito-Lay plant in California uses solar concentrators to provide heat for cooking snack foods.

The report finds that getting 10 percent of our energy from solar energy within two decades is equivalent to the energy that the U.S. currently produces at nuclear power plants, more than half the energy currently consumed in American cars and light trucks, or nearly half as much energy as we currently obtain from burning coal. Solar energy can play a major role in weaning the nation from dangerous, polluting, unstable and, in many cases, increasingly expensive forms of energy.

Environment America called on local, state and federal governments to commit to expanding solar energy. This can be accomplished by adopting strong policies to make solar energy an important part of America’s energy future. Environment America recommends: investing in solar technologies, research and development; requiring that utilities get more of their electricity from renewable resources like solar; requiring that buildings codes move towards all new buildings using zero net-energy; educating the public and training an effective workforce.

“We applaud Environment America for its leadership in addressing our nation’s biggest energy challenges – our dependence on fossil fuels and the need to address the pollution that is causing climate change – while also addressing our nation’s biggest economic challenge – creating jobs,” said Jamie Resor, chief financial officer for groSolar, a solar energy installation firm based in White River Junction, Vt. “This report, combined with the Solar Bill of Rights (www.SolarBillofRights.org), provides a policy roadmap for leveling the playing field for an energy source that more than 92 percent of Americans say they want more of, now.”

“As a developer, financier and installer of solar PV systems that has created more than 60 jobs over the past two years, we at Standard Solar strongly endorse far-sighted legislation, such as the Senator's “10 Million Solar Roofs” bill,” said Anthony Clifford, Chief Executive Officer of Gaithersburg, Maryland-based Standard Solar. “We see it as a means to create real, sustainable, domestic jobs and to help homeowners and businesses better control their energy costs while reducing harmful emissions and stress on the power grid during hot summer weekdays, especially between Washington, DC and central New York state.”

“The sun provides more energy in an hour than all the coal mines and oil wells do in a year,” said Garren. “This solar energy is limitless and pollution free. Solar power is also increasingly cost competitive with older, dirtier sources of energy. America can and must figure out how to tap the heat and power of the sun,” he concluded.

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Environment America is a federation of state-based, citizen-funded environmental organizations working for clean air, clean water, and open space.

[Dogmudgeon]

1. 10% in 20 years -- that sounds quite doable

The most immediate implementation of solar energy we could make would be in passive solar heating for residences. Even designing and building retrofits would be useful -- this is the lowest cost end of the energy "genre", and I still wonder why we haven't been doing it for the last 40 years.

It might not liberate us all from the grid, but it would certainly cut deeply into heating costs.

PV and concentrated-thermal may still need a while for more real-world engineering development, but passive solar heating is a no-brainer. Of course, "no brainer" applies to a lot of things.

--d!

[NNadir]

2. Wow!!! That's Amazing!!!!! In 1976, the Dangerous Fossil Fuel Executive Amory Lovins Predicted

23% by 2000 for solar.

And, at the further end of the spectrum, projections for 2000 being considered by the "Demand Panel" of a major U.S. National Research Council study, as of mid-1976, ranged as low as about 54 quads of fuels (plus 16 of solar energy)

Lovins, "Crystal Ball" Amory, "The Road Not Taken," Foreign Affairs, October 1976, page 76.

One can never have enough soothsaying and crystal ball reading in case one's complacency reserves are running low.

[OmahaBlueDog]

3. What we really need is a cheap, simple to install solar panel that can produce 220v at about 50 amps

This would be sufficient to power most home air conditioners. Simply installing these on roofs throughout the South and Southwest, would reduce consumption and leave a lot more spendable cash in consumer pockets. But for people to do it, you'd need to get the installed cost down to 2-3 grand. You could sell that easily, because the payback would be 1-2 years.

[NNadir]

4. What we really need is a sense of reality.

That's not going to happen though, as long as we keep hearing wishful thinking like this.

[Statistical]

5. Um... 220v @ 50 amps = 11,000 watts or 11kw peak AC

If 11KW was 2-3 grand that would be like $0.30 per watt.
Of course inverter, wiring, voltage mismatch losses mean 11KW peak AC requires about 13KW DC.

13KW DC for $3000 would be $0.22 per watt!

IF solar was <$0.25 per watt installed it would replace all forms of power on the planet. Lifetime energy cost would be less than a penny per kWh.

So yeah if solar got that cheap it would do a lot more than power air conditioners. It would power the entire world.

[OmahaBlueDog]

6. Please forgive my optimism and ignorance

I live in a part of the workd where a wind tower costs a lot, but can produce a megawatt.

So tell me, how much is 13KW DC, installed. I'd seriously like to know.

[Statistical]

7. Well PV installed right now with no subsidies is about $3 to $5 per watt.

A lot depends on local labor costs, type of mounting, and how efficient panels you want. More efficient panels don't produce more power. A 100W 10% efficient panel and a 100W 20% efficient panel both produce 100W peak, one is just twice as big as the other.

So ballpark price would be around $40,000 to $60,000 installed and connected to grid.
I am pretty sure 13KW would still qualify for 30% federal subsidy (not positive I haven't looked at arrays that big) so that would come off the gross price.

PV Solar is roughly 3x to 4x that of wind depending on the geography.

Wind is about $1500 to $2500 per KW and depending on location has 25%-35% capacity factor (based on average sustained wind speeds).
PV Solar is about $3000 to $5000 per KW and depending on location has 12% to 20% capacity factor (based on annual solar insolation).

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. OK, what kind of square footage are we talking

(let's say a 20% efficient panel)..and while I'm at it... ...$40,000 to 60,000 now. But, everything is more expensive before it becomes popular. How far could economies of scale drop that cost? Suppose 13KW installations were being performed at the rate of 40,000 homes per month (nationwide), and this was happening in warm weather climates, so the work took place year-round? Put more simply, how far could that price drop?

[Statistical]

11. Well that is the magic question.

Solar insolation is about 1000w per m^2.
So 20% efficient panel would be 200w per m^2.
13KW / 200w = 65 m^2 = 700 square feet.

As far as how cheap? Well that is the magic question.

The panels make up about 60% of total system cost so that is where any future cost reductions will come from.

Nanosolar says they can get costs down to $1 per watt.

Currently high quality panels are $3 or more a watt.
Inverters run about another $0.50 - $0.70 per wattt.
Mounting hardware & wiring another $0.60 - $0.80 or so a watt.
Labor really depends on how much you want to pay people.

Higher efficiency panels have lower labor costs.

Just so you know 13KW DC is not needed for the average home, 5 to 6KW is more than enough for most areas.

[OmahaBlueDog]

13. $1 a watt wouldn't be as cheap as I proposed, but it'd be pretty close

That would get payments down to about $230 a month (11,000/60 mo/9.5%).

When I lived in South Florida, I paid at least that amount in electric bills to run my a/c between April and October.

At 30,000, I'd have to pay over 15 years to get the payments down to something approaching $300 a month.

[Statistical]

14. Why do you think you need 13KW? 13KW is a massive array.

Take your annual energy usage (in kWh). Most utilities show your last 12 months of consumption on bill.

Most homes are about 8000 kwh. Might be higher in TX due to high AC usage.

Solar insolation varies around the country from about 4 to about 6.5. 5 is a good starting point.

Annual consumption / ( insolation * 365) = size of array in KW AC

Derate by 80% to get size in DC.

Example:

8000 kWh AC / (5hrs *365)= 4.38 kW AC

4.38KW AC / 0.80 = 5.48 kW DC

[OmahaBlueDog]

15. I just know every air conditioner I ever owned was a 220v system with a 50 amp breaker

I based my assumptions on that alone.

[Statistical]

16. Oh. Well thanks to the magic of net metering you can get away with half that.

Your AC doesn't run 24/7/365. What matters is how much energy you use per year. For average home that is 800kWh. Those with gas heating & hot water heater will be less. Those with heat pumps, electric hot water, and live in high AC usage areas will use more.

Only way to know for sure if check your power bill. Total up last 12 months that is your annual consumption.

With net metering if your power output is > than consumption your meter runs backwards (rduces recorded consumption). Thus you only need an array big enough for your total annual consumption.

A 100 watt panel will generate 100watt hours for each hour in peak sunlight.
A 5KW array with generate 5kWh per hour of peak sunlight.

So you look at this map:


That number is number of hours of peak sunlight. If it is a 5 then a 1KW array will produce 5kWh of energy per day. So the number (insolation) * 365 = number of hours of peak sunlight you have per year.

Average home is 8000 kWh AC. Now there will be some inefficiencies for a PV system (wiring loss, inverter loss, voltage mismatch) so we need to derate to find out how much DC energy you need. Good starting figure is 80%
8000kWh / 0.8 = 10,000 kWh DC

Say insolation in your area of TX is 5.5. 5.5*365 = 2007.5 hours peak sunlight per year.
10,000 kWh DC / 2007.5 hours = 4.98 KW. You would need a 4.98KW array.

Lets go in reverse to check math.
A 4.98KW array will generate 5.5 hours * 4.98KW = 27.4 kWh of energy per day.
27.4kWh * 365 = 10,000 kWh DC.
80% derate: 10,000 kWh DC * 0.80 = 8,000 kWh AC. Yup math checks out.


That is the basics. There is a little more to it if you are sizing an array for real. Panels need to face directly south (true south not magnetic south). Panels need to be elevated at the latitude of the location. Panels can have no shadows (even small shadow kills output of cell). Most roofs only have part of it facing south so you need to keep that in mind. Flat roofs will require more expensive angle mounts to hold panels at angle equal to latitude. There are more advanced tools to find out exactly how big of an array you will need.

[TheWraith]

9. That "simple to install" solar panel would be 36 feet on a side.

36 feet long and 36 feet wide. Seriously. That's how large it would have to be to produce that much wattage.

[OmahaBlueDog]

10. In Florida or Texas, that wouldn't necessarily scare me.

The typical home in Florida is between 1300 and 2500 square feet under air. About half are single story, and half two story. It stands to reason that most of these homes would have at least 1300 SF of roof space, which is what a 36 x 36 panel mean (1296 sf). Peple might also prove willing to build flat roof shelters over pools or patios, which could serve as great mounting spaces for a 36 x 36 panel.

[TheWraith]

12. And it would cost about $30,000. nt