Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C … and no chance of protecting coral reefs.

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0907/full/climate.2009.57.html

Commentary

Nature Reports Climate Change
Published online: 11 June 2009 | doi:10.1038/climate.2009.57

Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C

Joeri Rogelj, Bill Hare, Julia Nabel, Kirsten Macey, Michiel Schaeffer, Kathleen Markmann & Malte Meinshausen

National targets give virtually no chance of constraining warming to 2 °C and no chance of protecting coral reefs.

International climate negotiations are picking up speed as the deadline for agreeing a global treaty approaches. Countries are now making clear their own commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions under amendments to the Kyoto Protocol¹ and under a new agreement or protocol to be decided in Copenhagen in December². Here we compile all of the current position statements from developed and developing countries and ask three questions: what do they add up to in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions, what are the consequences for the global climate system and how do they collectively compare to the goals of limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels?

More than 100 nations endorse a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C or less³. These countries accounted for about 25 per cent of the world population in 2005 (ref. 4). Furthermore, many of the most vulnerable nations, including the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), have called for warming to be limited to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

To constrain global warming to within 2 °C, developed countries would need to cut their emissions to 25–40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and to 50–80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050, according to the best available scientific analyses. Most developed countries (referred to as Annex I parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC) have specific proposals, domestic policy processes or a clear intent expressed at high political levels from which the amount of ambition for Copenhagen in terms of emissions reductions in 2020 can be inferred. A number of countries have also stated their positions on reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Many developing countries — including Brazil, China, India and South Africa, whose combined greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 and 2005 amounted, respectively, to 58 and 60 per cent of non-Annex I emissions — have climate policies in place or have declared their intent to adopt policies with sufficient clarity to enable an estimate of their future emissions.

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[timeforpeace]

1. How many met their Kyoto emissions goals?

Will China and India be exempted once again?

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. How many?

http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/kp_data_unfccc/base_year_data/items/4354.php