Question - I've read enough about Peak Oil to grasp the economic

[BR_Parkway]

meltdown that was predicted, but that was all based on declining supplies, higher prices in what used to be a normal economy.

But looking at how the current economy is being pillaged and driven into the ground already, has anyone seen any articles exploring the combination of these two issues at the same time?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

1. You might want to check out Bad Money by Kevin Phillips

I do book reviews occasionally, and I had to review it this summer.

It's an examination of how our economic system was hijacked by the "financial wizards" and ties the prospect of Peak Oil into the mess that just started this fall. (Bad Money was published in April of this year.)

I knew very, very little about economics before I read this title; suffice to say, I've understood (and was prepared for) nearly everything that's happened this fall. His forecasts have been mostly incredibly prescient. IIRC, he doesn't really think that Peak Oil is going to heavily come into play until around 2010-2011 -- which is when he predicted that the worst of our economic troubles will be hitting.

[kristopher]

3. Peak Oil is a bunch of hooey.

There are alternatives to petroleum for virtually all products. As oil becomes harder to extract the price rises. As the price rises those alternatives become economically viable. As to hitting "hitting peak oil" in 2010/11; as you say it was written in april when the price of oil was what $130+/barrel? It is now $40+- a barrel and they are taking fields offline.

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

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[kristopher]

6. No, you're an idiot for calling someone an idiot.

What I said was that predictions based on "peak oil" (as defined by geologically constrained supply) have always been and always will be hogwash. It is useless as a predictive tool just as a state of recession is useless as a predictive tool, both are something that are only visible once you are well past them.

You say you know nothing of economics before you read one fringe book that is allegedly on the topic, right? I say you still don't know anything about economics if that is the case. All peak oil gloom and doom is based on the mad max scenario that there is no substitute for oil The fact is that there ARE acceptable substitutes.

So not only is peak oil a useless predictor of supply availability, the behavior described based on a lack of acceptable substitutes is absolutely false because there ARE acceptable substitute.

And I don't think you are an idiot, BTW, I just think you need more and better information.

[Fovea]

7. The old demand creates supply game.

As soon as I get that multiple orgasm transmitter finished, I fully intend to retire.

[kristopher]

8. What product doen't have an existing acceptable alternative?

[Fovea]

10. What is the EROEI of grain ethanol?

It isn't whether there is a replacement so much as what downstream effects.
My buddy is a wheat farmer, and he just prays for grain ethanol, based on what
scarcity in corn does for wheat prices as well.

Of the few fuels that we would strap willingly to a moving vehicle, petroleum is the highest btu and the easiest to get with current technology.
The easiest to get is falling, but the mechanisms for delivery are there and the transportation systems are still petro-centric for the most part.

We use oil for a lot of things, natural gas as well. Every medicine you take. Almost all the colors in your life. Take everything made of plastic off your desk.
Like water is to solvents, oil is to feedstocks.

Imagine coming up with a replacement for every use of water.
Even if it could be done, that is all you would be doing for the rest of your life.

[kristopher]

12. Ethanol is a storage medium.

It isn't a source of energy it is a means of storing energy in a form that is more mobile than electricity. Grains are a dead end for ethanol liquid fuels, though, it looks like algae perform about 6X better than the best dry farmed commodities.

But since you mention it:
EROI of petroleum was once 1:100, it is now 1:15 and falling
EROI of coal was once aboout 1:80, it too is now about 1:15 and falling
EROI of nuclear is variously estimated as ranging from 1:15 to 1:5 and falling.

EROI of solar is 1:20 to 1:40 and rising rapidly.
EROI of wind is 1:50 to 1:80 and rising rapidly.


The power system we have now is going to be totally redesigned under Obama. If you want to see the transition that is planned to to Gore's REPOWER AMERICA website or go to the plan laid out by Schmidt, Google's CEO. Because of the economic stimulus spending that needs to be done, Gore's 10 year goal is starting to look like it might be the way things proceed. Schmidt published his plan before the meltdown occurred and structured a less aggressive (30%) move over 20 years.

http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2008/10/clean-energy-2030.html

http://google.com/energyplan

[Fovea]

16. Petroleum is a storage medium as well.

Your original question is about what cannot be replaced.

You did not address the feedstocks issue, which is not trivial.
But regarding oil and its replacement for a vehicular fuel,
I am reminded of the mad hatter's tea party, and the dormouse's non functioning watch.
"I told you butter wouldn't suit the works"
"But it was the best butter"

Any solution to this problem that allows suburbia to be the dominant paradigm of American living is the best butter.
Without suburbia, the automobile starts to make a lot less sense as the primary transportation system in the US.
Rail also gets beyond the battery technology issue by using the grid.

[kristopher]

19. Dude you already have your mind made up about something.

I don't know what it is and frankly don't care. There are alternatives to fossil fuels and we are poised to make the transition. Believe it or not, I don't give a damn.

[Fovea]

5. I agree with Phillips so frequently

I'd swear he was a progressive.

When this economic crisis resolves, I rather suspect that newly increased demand will show that we've hit the other side of the curve.
It's a damn steep curve.

[kristopher]

2. You should look at what alternatives are going to develop

You should look at what alternatives are going to develop as, worldwide, governments turn to very large scale public works projects in the renewable energy sector as a means of priming their economies.

Under normal economic conditions this type of public works spending would take 50 years; it looks like we are poised to do it in less than 10 years. For example, Obama formed a renewable energy/climate change plan that called for spending $150 billion over 10 years. Now, renewable energy is the center of this 600 billion dollar stimulus plan that is going through as soon as he takes office.

Another example: the 25 billion already allocated to help the Big 3 is for retooling to high mileage/zero emission (read electric cars) vehicles. That is separate from the $150B Obama had proposed.

There are viable alternatives to petroleum and coal and it looks like this economic disaster is the road to a final shift to a renewable energy infrastructure.

[Fovea]

9. Transportation, home heating, electrical transmission

all of these paradigms would have to be redrawn before we are sustainable.
Not to mention agriculture and food processing.

Where does the ammonia to fertilize crops come from? The diesel to run the tractors? The Pesticides?
The energy to make them higher value products? The green packaging?

It can be done, but it is a moon race sized project, IMO, without a single magic bullet.

[kristopher]

11. No one said there is a magic bullet.

Surely you can do better than strawmen? The list you gave has alternatives - all of them.


The Smart Grid allows power management on a microscale. Such as: the move to electric vehicles is underway right now nd the vehicles will talk to the grid and both draw power from it and sell it back to it. This is an important form of energy storage that makes wind and solar possible. Small scale home based systems can be tied together and managed by the Smart Grid in the same way it is done now, instead of trading in hundreds of megawatts they will trade in tens of kilowatts.

Long distance superconducting transmission lines are a reality.

All of the primary technologies are there now. The public and political will is there now to make it happen. High energy prices (driven by speculation, not actual shortage) contributed largely to that public and political will; just like basic natrual resources economic theory predicts for finite resources that have alternatives.

We will still use oil for some things but as the alternatives become more readily available we will transition. First light duty personal transportation, then coal, next heavy duty trans, then natural gas electric generation. That is my prediction of the order of transition.

The chemical, plastics and fertilizers are separate and constitute such a low percentage of use (1%+- I think) that they can be dealt with later.

[MH1]

17. What kind of vehicle

will "sell power back to the grid"?

I understand the gist of a smart grid, and obviously vehicles will generally recharge at off-peak times (except when the user demands that they recharge "now"). What I don't understand is how any vehicle even on the drawing board today (let alone in production!) can produce power to put back into the grid. Solar cells glued all over the body?

[kristopher]

18. Produce?

I wasn't referring to electric vehicles producing power and selling it to the grid. Although there would be no technical reason this couldn't be done (and the numbers have been looked at with fuel cell vehicles) even with an internal combustion engine, it isn't an economically efficient proposition.

No, what I'm taking about is known as vehicle to grid (V2G) technology where batteries in EVs act as storage for a grid. Even in the current system there is high value in this practice; it is economically attractive even when there is low market penetration and it's value and use shifts as more EV's come on line and there are higher levels of renewable energy being pumped into the grid. Very few people appreciate the total amount of electrical energy that 200 million plus EVs would represent. This concept is the reason you hear so much about "plug in" hybrids and electric vehicles.

I think wiki has a decent write up on them if you want to know more. Also, I posted an article from Nature on the EE forum yesterday that gives some good information on the topic.

[MH1]

21. Thanks for the reply

Now I understand what you were saying.

I'll check out your other post.

[hunter]

13. I suspect this economic crash was the result of peak oil.

They just tried to hide it in heavy handed and grotesque market manipulations.

That's probably what Dick Cheney & Co. were about with their secretive Energy meetings. It was all about the survival of the kleptocracy as oil extraction declined.

Apparently they made some bad calculations, maybe because estimated oil reserves were exaggerated by most producers. Their own lies caught up with them before they could get all the political machinery in place to maintain their control of the markets. It looks a lot like we've passed through the unstable pump-and-dump markets they desired into a chaos they did not expect.

In ten years the peak will be very obvious. I'm pretty sure it's downhill from here.

[kristopher]

14. That's foolish.

The problem with the credit markets has its roots in practices in the mortgage industry that divorced risk from initial profits on lending. It has absolutely nothing to do with some cockamamie conspiracy theory involving Cheney and oil. This is far too well documented to go there.

If you have to manufacture such nonsense to validate a core belief, it is a good sign that your core belief needs to be re=-evaluated.

[hunter]

15. I have patience...

:hi:

[Terry in Austin]

20. So, BR -- did any of this catfight help with your question?

:shrug: