Will GM be able to go green in time (and pull off the Volt )? businessweek article looks at

[JohnWxy]

Wagoner's challenge.

When I heard that GM was saying they were going to make the Volt and have it available for sale by 2010 for $30,000 a copy I thought GM (?) pull off this much innovation, with a new technology (lithium batteries to power a car - I thought about the lithium batteries in small electronic devices that burst into flames). Wow, this is long shot. Maybe they will do it eventually, but in TWO years, for $30,000 a copy. Maybe they will surprise me but this will take some doing!


Well, in the current Businessweek there is an article in much the same vein:

"General Motors' green strategy is akin to a moon shot. It will cost billions to get the Volt ready by 2010 and fill out the fleet with hybrids, require GM's 22,000 engineers to stretch like never before, and involve the top-to-bottom transformation of a culture wedded to big cars and horsepower. Other automakers, of course, must also hew to the new realities. Most, including GM's two crosstown rivals, Ford and Chrysler, are rolling out hybrids, too. But the Volt is controversial in automotive circles because the technology is so new and unproven."
~~

No one knew if something resembling supersize cell-phone batteries would work in a car. And GM executives confess the Volt was originally conceived as an image play (its original name: the iCar). But then Hurricane Katrina sent oil prices soaring.

~~
The next step is vaulting the technological hurdles. One of Kruse's first moves was throwing a few million dollars at the battery lab. Located at GM's sprawling tech center in the working-class Detroit suburb of Warren, the lab is ground zero for GM's efforts to turn itself into a green carmaker. Douglas Drauch and his team must figure out how to fit batteries into a range of hybrid vehicles and create ones that will propel the Volt 40 miles before a small gasoline engine fires up and recharges the battery, extending the range to 600 miles. Remember the laptops that caught fire because their batteries overheated? Imagine if something like that happened while driving down the highway. And because GM is racing to catch up, Drauch must cram 10 years' worth of testing into two.


~~
Despite the tight schedule, Kruse says the batteries will be ready by 2010. "We're making history," he says. "Fifty years from now, people will remember Volt—like they remember a '53 Corvette." There are plenty of doubters, however. Toyota engineers wonder privately whether the battery industry, which currently isn't producing many lithium ion batteries for cars, will be able to make enough by 2010 for GM to sell the Volt in any real volume. One executive at Tesla, a California upstart working on an electric sports car, also questions whether the technology will be able to pass a 100,000-mile warranty test.

(more)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I hope GM is able to pull this Volt car off, but frankly I can't see it being ready for sale for about 4 to 5 years and then at volume, a number of years after that (depends on how fast the battery manufacturer can ramp up production (while maintaining strigent QC) to high enough volume). Frankly, I could see it taking more like 10 years before they are really 'ready for prime time'.

But maybe they will prove me wrong. It would be a helluva thing to pull this off in just 2 or three years (forget the volume production. That won't occur for 8 to 10 years) just getting some built for sale (oh, and if they sell them for $30-$45 it will be a sale at a loss.) OF course at $30,000 to $45,000 how much volume will they need?

I hope they can build the Volt, but really, a production model before 5 years, that will be really tough.

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. GM to start selling electric cars by 2010, earlier than planned - CEO

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=6725336&action=article

(AFX UK Focus) 2008-05-22 14:09

GM to start selling electric cars by 2010, earlier than planned - CEO

FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - General Motors Corp. aims to start selling electric cars for less than $30,000 each by 2010, earlier than planned, chief executive Rick Wagoner told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in an interview.

The company previously said it plans to start serial production of an electric car, the Chevrolet Volt, by the end of 2010.

"Our two challenges are lowering the cost of batteries and convincing consumers of the advantages of the Volt," Wagoner told the newspaper in an excerpt of an interview to be published on Friday.

General Motors presented a prototype of the Volt in January last year.

Commenting on the North American market for automobiles, Wagoner said 2008 will be a "pretty tough year" in the region due to soaring oil prices, higher raw material costs and strikes at key suppliers.

...

[wtmusic]

6. The biggest challenge: convincing consumers of the advantages of a GM.

:evilgrin:

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. Nissan, NEC Set Electric-Car Batteries for '09

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121118630484603191.html

Nissan, NEC Set Electric-Car Batteries for '09

By JOHN MURPHY
May 20, 2008; Page B1

Tokyo

As the race to produce environmentally friendly cars heats up, Nissan Motor Co. and technology giant NEC Corp. announced Monday that next year they will begin mass-producing lithium-ion batteries, a key technology needed for electric cars.

Nissan and NEC plan to invest a combined 12 billion yen ($115 million) in the battery project over the next three years, starting with capacity of 13,000 units a year, at first supplying batteries for Nissan forklifts. The joint venture, Automotive Energy Supply Corp., expects production of 65,000 units annually by 2011, mostly for cars. Nissan holds a 51% stake in the project with NEC and a subsidiary sharing the rest.

The auto maker's portion of the investment is a small fraction of the 10.8 trillion yen in revenue the company booked for its latest fiscal year. Yet for Nissan, which lags behind many of its competitors in developing eco-friendly vehicles, the project is critical to its hopes of becoming a leader in making electric cars. Nissan and partner Renault SA plan to offer an all-electric car in the U.S. and Japan by 2010 and globally in 2012. Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Corp. and about a dozen other rivals are rushing to mass-produce their own lithium-ion batteries for the next generation of green vehicles.

Lithium-ion batteries -- the type used in laptop computers and cellphones -- are considered the most promising battery for electric cars because they pack twice the power of conventional nickel-metal hydride batteries and can be charged again and again. But safety remains a concern. Laptops and cellphones with lithium-ion batteries have overheated and caught fire. Nissan and NEC say their laminated cell batteries use a stable crystal structure called spinel manganese that will eliminate the risk of overheating. The companies plan to offer the batteries, which they say have proved safe in field tests, to other car companies. Other battery manufacturers also have addressed the overheating issue.

...

[puerco-bellies]

3. This is our future, this is our opportunity as a country.

We made it to the moon, and we can do this. The moon was a challenge, this is survival as an economically viable entity, and possibly as a species. We can lead the world in going green, and export our products to an oil-starved greenhouse gas polluted world. Yes we can.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Motor Show: Paris Motor Show preview: First GM 'Delta' car a Chevy

http://www.channel4.com/4car/news/news-story.jsp?news_id=17499&ref=archive

Motor Show: Paris Motor Show preview: First GM 'Delta' car a Chevy

16 May 08 11:21

General Motors is to show the first of a whole new 'family' of cars at the Paris Motor Show this autumn.

...

Chevrolet will also make an announcement in Paris over production of the Volt - another car on the Delta platform. The Volt will be seen in Paris in US production specification, with its electric powertrain and auxiliary petrol engine said to be very similar to that of the original concept. GM is planning also to offer a version with a diesel engine, as in last year's Opel Flextreme concept; this may be sold as a Vauxhall or Opel, with the petrol-electric Volt taking the Chevy badge.

...

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. GM Exploring Supercap Li-Ion Combination for Next Generation Energy Storage for EREVs

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/gm-exploring-su.html

GM Exploring Supercap Li-Ion Combination for Next Generation Energy Storage for EREVs

16 May 2008

General Motors is actively exploring the concept of combining supercapacitors and lithium-ion batteries in a next-generation energy storage system (ESS) for its E-Flex series of extended range electric vehicles (EREVs).

Although the primary objective of the project is to explore using supercapacitors for peak shaving the power capacity requirements of the lithium-ion battery pack, such a combination of ESS technologies also has the benefit of addressing the low-temperature performance issues of lithium-ion batteries, said Dr. Mark Verbrugge, Director, Material and Process Labs at GM’s Tech Center, during a presentation at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC) this week in Tampa, FL.

The concept is especially suited for the EREV vehicles—such as the Volt—because of the combined requirement for high energy and high power. This is not for the coming Volt in 2010, Verbrugge stressed, “but we’re thinking beyond.”

To keep the system complexity down, they are eliminating the DC/DC converter. The initial system being explored, partly as a way of developing and validating the method for subsequent work—consists of 6 100F Nesscap supercapacitors and two Kokum high-energy lithium-ion batteries.

...

[msongs]

7. GM already HAD an electric car - they could be stealing the market by now. idiots run the place nt

[OKIsItJustMe]

9. Yup, they had an experimental, and generally unmarketable car

The Volt pretty much addresses the consumer concerns with the EV-1 prototype:

• It seats 4 people.
• It will sell for a reasonably affordable price.
• It has a virtually unlimited range.

http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/18042/
http://blog.wired.com/cars/2007/01/chevy_volt_coul.html
http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6413718.html

[wtmusic]

13. An "unmarketable" car that had purchase offers for every remaining one --

and yet GM crushed them all.

Why? Why destroy perfectly functioning cars that had buyers? Was it supposed "liability", which never affected sales of Corvairs and Studebakers or any other car model before or since?

Here's one that you and Dave Barthmuss and Bob Lutz and everyone else who works for GM can't answer: why did they remove the entire powertrain of the display model that's sitting the Petersen Automotive Museum? If you answered, "Because it was potentially dangerous," you'd be partly right. It was dangerous to the most profitable industry in the world.

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. Um... I don't work for GM

I was thrilled when the EV-1 was announced. I really was.

On the other hand, it would not have been practical for me.

1. I live in a state where it gets cold. The EV-1 ran fine in California, but in cold weather, the battery performance takes a hit. In addition, I like to have a heated car in the Winter (call me soft) running the electric heater also took a toll on the range.
2. The limited range of the EV-1 was a concern. At the time, I was commuting about 30 miles a day, but I'd quite often drive to visit friends and family members that live 60 or more miles away.
3. While I like a 2-place, I've always surrendered to practicality, and gotten a back seat.

For what it's worth, GM did not crush all of the EV-1's. Some (as you point out) were given to museums. Some were given to universities.

Was there a potential hazard with the EV-1's? You be the judge:
http://www.ka9q.net/ev/ev1fire.html
http://www.electrifyingtimes.com/webb_gem_fire.html

[wtmusic]

17. What does a different model's fire have to do with it? Pathetic.

You referred to GM as "we" in a prior post, so I assumed you work for them. But the way you shill for them around here, day in and day out, I guess you could work for a PR agency which is hired by them, or another such capacity. My mistake.

onedit: and if that ludicrous presumption was true, they could have just taken out the batteries couldn't they? Hmm?

[OKIsItJustMe]

20. Oh, I don't know...

It might suggest that large battery packs are potentially hazardous.

In any case, I'm not a "shill" for GM. I honestly have never cared all that much for their products. When the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiero">Fiero was introduced, it looked great, until I really looked at one, and saw what I considered to be serious engineering flaws. I had hopes for the Saturn line, but I was disappointed the first time I actually sat in one.

On the other hand, I first read about "series hybrids" back in the 70's. That's what I consider a "real hybrid." No hybrid on the market today measures up. Just as you may be disappointed in the "Volt" (E-Flex) because it's not a "true EV," I've been terribly disappointed by today's hybrids.


The "Volt" looks to be the first true mass market series hybrid. In addition, I feel I should be supporting "American" workers by buying a "American made" car (to the extent that any car is really domestically made these days.)

I haven't bought a new car for quite a while, but I'm thinking seriously about a Volt, and watching its development with great interest. It's not perfect; for example, I'd prefer to see a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine">Stirling engine in it rather than a conventional ICE, however it seems (to me) to be the most practical solution available in the near term.

As for the EV-1, look at the Volt. Really look at it. The only way GM is bringing it to market this quickly is that it uses a lot of engineering that was tested and proven with the EV-1 prototype. That's what prototypes are for.

[wtmusic]

21. The Volt is a hybrid

GM has tried to reinvent the word, since Bob Lutz made the unfortunate comment that "Hybrids don't make sense". Either he had to backtrack, or the word had to be reinvented, so they thought they could achieve the latter with marketing.

You may be terribly disappointed with today's hybrids like the Prius, but millions of parallel hybrid owners are very happy. For them, their cars measure up just fine. I see nothing wrong with being patriotic and supporting the home team, but in the case of GM I see overwhelming evidence of greed, corruption, and market-fixing, and zero evidence of using some of their colossal influence to even slightly make the world a better place. Toyota hasn't been much better with their deliberate dismantling of the RAV4-EV, but at least, AT LEAST they were first to the table with a viable hybrid. Every mile a Prius drives puts roughly l pound less of CO2 into the air than a comparable GM compact, and with 1M cars on the road that makes a difference.

[OKIsItJustMe]

24. Yeah, sure the Volt is a hybrid, but it's a different kind of hybrid

It has a gasoline engine, and an electric motor (that makes it a hybrid.) However (unlike your Prius) you can drive it as an all electric vehicle for several miles. I could easily do my daily commute for days in EV mode without recharging. I simply cannot do that in a Prius.

The E-Flex is fundamentally different from today's hybrids. That's why I think the "Extended Range Electric Vehicle" - EREV terminology is valid.


What I've said since I first rode in one is that, "The Prius is a good implementation of a questionable technology." I think Toyota did a good job of implementing a parallel hybrid, I just don't want a parallel hybrid.

I admire my friends who have bought Priuses. They've decided to do something good for the environment. I think a few too many people buy Priuses though who should be buying Hondas. (I think "hybrid" has become synonymous with "Prius" in many people's minds.)

I also think that it's hypocritical to criticize GM and laud Toyota, when Toyota axed their EV program (just like GM) and is heavily advertising monster trucks and SUV's (just like GM.) At least GM is marketing hybrid trucks/SUV's.
http://www.greencar.com/features/2008greencar/

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. Chevy Volt: Traveling Public Roads and Hitting Its Mark

http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/chevy_volt_traveling_public_roads_and_hitting_its_mark.html

Chevy Volt: Traveling Public Roads and Hitting Its Mark

May 14, 2008

By Michelle Krebs

WARREN, Michigan -- General Motors inched closer to making the Chevrolet Volt a reality in November 2010 as the vehicle's innovative gas-electric powertrain is being test-driven for the first time on public roads and is hitting its target of 40 miles on pure electric power.

"Today is a big day," GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz told Edmunds' AutoObserver in an exclusive interview Tuesday. "Today is the first day it is running on the street on battery power."

Lutz said the Volt's powertrain, comprised of an advanced lithium-ion battery and a small gasoline engine, was installed into a mule vehicle and is being driven on public roads around the automaker's proving grounds in Milford, Michigan. More important, Lutz said, the battery is hitting GM's goal of 40 miles on pure electric power.

"It is reliably meeting its objectives," Lutz confirmed. "Even with a rough calibration, even with the wrong drive unit, the wrong body, etc. etc., it has been hitting its 40 miles on electric power."

...

[wtmusic]

10. The Volt is an overhyped, blatant sell out to the petroleum industry

and their own parts divisions.

40 miles on lithium-ion? What a joke. The EV-1 did four times that eight years ago on low-tech NiMH. GM will get left in the dust by competitors who don't think hybrids are PR and don't think global warming is a crock of shit. And not a moment too soon.

[kristopher]

11. That might have been all the batteries they could get.

Will it have the ability to add capacity?

[OKIsItJustMe]

15. Although supply is no doubt a factor, that's not the only one

As the EV-1 fans will recite, the average American commuter drives less than 40 miles a day. (That's why the EV-1's all-electric range was acceptable.) For some reason, although that's accepted as Gospel for the EV-1, it is not for the Volt.

The Tesla roadster has much greater range on all-electric, however, that comes with a cost. For one thing, all of that battery capacity is expensive, for another it takes up a lot of space. Finally, once the battery is drained, you'll need to stop and recharge.

The Volt (E-Flex) attempts to balance cost, volume & range.

The battery packs will need to be serviceable; so, I imagine upgrades will appear as better technologies are developed. However, I haven't read about any intentions on GM's part to offer a larger battery pack as an option (if that's what you mean.)

[kristopher]

26. My understanding is that most manufacturers are going for 'balance' at 150 miles.

And that they will, at extra cost, offer either a hybrid or an "extender" battery pack that is installed specifically for longer range driving. If you consider that daily driving habits are going to form a bell curve across the population of drivers, then perhaps it makes marketing sense to concentrate on the left side of the curve initially. Many families might be perfectly happy with that limit as long as their other car can serve their range needs.

I don't really believe that, but I thought I'd throw it out.

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. The EV-1 is overhyped

The EV-1 was not a product, it was a series of prototypes. The Volt will be the real product.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1#EV1_drivetrain_prototypes

...

EV1 drivetrain prototypes

General Motors revealed several prototype variants of the EV1 drivetrain at the 1998 Detroit Auto Show. The models included diesel/electric parallel hybrid, gas turbine/electric series hybrid, fuel cell/electric version and compressed natural gas low emission internal combustion engine version. In addition, during this period, GM reorganized their electronics divisions (amongst them Hughes Electronics and Delco Divisions) into Delco Propulsion Systems in order to attempt to commercialize this technology in niche markets. Several non-affiliated companies purchased inverter and drivetrain systems from DPS for vehicle/fleet conversion purposes.

The new platform was a four-passenger variant of the EV1, lengthened by 19". This design was based on an internal (GM) program for a more "marketable" EV begun during the proof of concept phase of the EV1's development. During the original EV1 R&D period, focus groups indicated one of the major market limiting factors of the original EV1 was its two seater configuration. GM investigated the possibility of making the EV1 a four seater, but ultimately determined that the increased length and weight of the four seater would reduce vehicle's already limited range to 40-50 miles - placing the first ground up electric car's performance squarely in the pack of aftermarket gas vehicle conversions. Understandably, the company elected to produce the lighter two seater design.

For hybrid and electric vehicles, the battery pack was upgraded to 44 NiMH cells, arranged in "I" formation down the centerline, which could fully recharge in just 2 hours using onboard 220 V induction charger; additional power units were installed in the trunk, thus complementing the 3rd generation 137 hp AC Induction electric motor installed in the hood. Hybrid modifications retained the capability of all-electric ZEV propulsion for up to 40 miles (64.4 km).

...

Does any of this sound familiar?

• 4 seater
• 40 miles all-electric
• Series hybrid

[wtmusic]

14. Prototypes don't have 1,300 models made. A production line.

The EV1 was in production, and you don't know what you're talking about.

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. Then, clearly I don't work for GM (Since I know nothing about the EV-1.)

Tell me, was the Toyota http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV">RAV4-EV a prototype or an actual product? (Explain your answer.)

Why is Toyota not marketing an EV today?


As for those 1,300 EV-1's. Does this sound like a production product to you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1#Release

...

GM never offered the EV1 for public sale. It was only available to consumers under a lease program that had "no purchase" clause disallowing the vehicle's re-purchase at the conclusion of the lease. 660 Generation One EV1s were produced for the 1997 model year, using lead acid batteries; each found a lessee.

In December 1999, GM released approximately 200 of the new Generation Two 1999 EV1s with the new nickel metal hydride battery. Over the next 8 months, the remaining 257 Generation Two EV1s were released to certain selected lessees which initiated a lengthy waiting list. In mid 2000, GM closed the EV1 plant. A total of 457 Generation Two EV1s were produced and all were eventually leased.

On March 2 2000, 450 Generation One EV1s were recalled by GM due to a faulty charge port cable that GM determined would lead to heat buildup and even fire. Despite the initial claim of only sixteen "thermal incidents" and no propery damage, at least one fire originating at the charge port actually occurred, destroying the car of Ron Brauer and Ruth Bygness as it charged. This did not affect the Generation Two EV1s.

Over the next two years, approximately 200 of the Generation One EV1s were re-issued to their original lessees on revised two-year leases including a new limited-mileage clause. The delays were due to design complications in retrofitting the NiMH battery. Due to the tenuous retrofitting process and limited number of recall replacement parts available, GM offered the waiting Generation One leasees the opportunity to terminate their lease at no charge, or the chance to transfer the lease to one of the few 150 Generation Two EV1s left - ahead of those already on the Generation Two waiting list.

...

[wtmusic]

19. Your own link answers your question. Read it.

"RAV4 EV pre-production prototypes were first released in a confidential evaluation program with electric utilities throughout the U.S. "
<>
"In March of 2002, due to a shift in corporate policy, the Toyota RAV4-EV was made available for sale to the general public, but only 328 of them."
<>
"By November of 2002 the 328 RAV4-EV’s Toyota had committed to were sold, yet demand was continuing to build. Toyota was caught off-guard by the extent of the demand because the vehicle's retail buyers had outsold the projections far faster than the vehicles could be supplied to market - despite very little advertising, and very little public awareness of the product."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV

And why do you keep bringing up the Gen1 fire, which affected one car? Your own quote: This did not affect the Generation Two EV1s. Do you enjoy shooting yourself in the foot?

No one knows why Toyota or GM is not marketing an EV today. Think it might have something to do with the $billions in losses their companion petroleum industry could suffer?

[OKIsItJustMe]

22. Have you ever considered

That they may have concluded that EV's were not viable/profitable products at that time and still are not at this time?


As for the Generation 1 EV-1 fire not affecting the Generation-2 cars. You're absolutely right. That particular problem was limited to a certain group of cars. What similar (but different) problem might have cropped up with the 2nd generation?

How much money did GM stand to make by selling a few hundred cars? What potential risks would they face by selling them?

Could they even legally sell them? For one thing, since they were prototypes, the http://www.carfax.com/car_safety/ratings/srr.cfm/year/1997/make/GM#SARcrashNHTSA">NHSTA never crash tested them.

[wtmusic]

23. NHTSA Gives EV1 3 Stars in Crash Test

"WASHINGTON - Federal safety officials for the first time have crash-tested an electric car, General Motors' EV1, and found that it performed satisfactorily.

The point of federal crash tests is to determine how much protection is provided to the driver and front-seat passenger when the vehicle hits a solid barrier head-on at 35 mph.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration gave the EV1 three stars out of a possible five for both driver and passenger.

But NHTSA officials, commenting beyond the rating announcement, said the EV1 also met industry guidelines for isolating electrical equipment and limiting spillage of electrolyte, or battery acid."

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-50325069.html

[OKIsItJustMe]

25. I guess I shouldn't trust cars.com!

However, 3 stars out of 5 isn't very good.