Nature article on ‘cooling’ confuses media, deniers: Next decade may see rapid warming

[RedEarth]

Nature article on ‘cooling’ confuses media, deniers: Next decade may see rapid warming

The Nature article that has caused so much angst about the possibility we are entering a decade of cooling — “Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector” (subs req’d) — has, in fact, been widely misreported. I base this in part on direct communication with the lead author.

In fact, with the general caveat from the authors that the study as a whole should be viewed in a very preliminary fashion, and should not be used for year-by-year predictions, it is more accurate to say the Nature study is consistent with the following statements:

The “coming decade” (2010 to 2020) is poised to be the warmest on record, globally.
The coming decade is poised to see faster temperature rise than any decade since the authors’ calculations began in 1960.
The fast warming would likely begin early in the next decade — similar to the 2007 prediction by the Hadley Center in Science (see “Climate Forecast: Hot — and then Very Hot“).
The mean North American temperature for the decade from 2005 to 2015 is projected to be slightly warmer than the actual average temperature of the decade from 1993 to 2003.

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WHAT THIS STUDY TELLS US

Before coming to a final conclusion, I would add three points. First, as you can clearly see in the figure — the actual observed runnning average temperatures from the Hadley Center since 1995 have been between the IPCC scenario projection and Dr. Keenlyside’s forecast, which does suggest that his model may be underestimating warming. Indeed, the lack of agreement between the model’s “hindcast” and actual temperatures since 1995 should remind us again to view this only as a very preliminary analysis with predictive ability that is much more qualitative than quantitative.

Second, since carbon emissions since 2000 have been racing past all projections, and been accompanied by soaring CO2 concentrations, (see “NOAA: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Methane Rise Sharply in 2007“), we would again naturally expect actual temperatures to be slightly higher than Dr. Keenlyside’s forecast (just as frozen concentrations yield results below his forecast).

Third, this general prediction — internal variability leading to slower than expected warming in recent years through 2010, followed by accelerated warming — is almost exactly the same prediction that the Hadley Center made last summer in Science (see here). They concluded:

… at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.

… <2014 will> “be 0.30° ± 0.2°C warmer than the observed value for 2004.”

So I take both these admittedly preliminary short-term forecasts to suggest that warming is going to be a roller coaster ride, with much short-term variation, but we are probably going to get quite hot quite fast early in the 2010s.


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http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/02/nature-article-on-cooling-confuses-revkin-media-deniers-next-decade-may-see-rapid-warming/#more-2772

[theoldman]

1. Climate change is like the stock market.

Neither are a straight line upward. Pollution is a straight line upward but pollution can be effected by other weather conditions. That is why we can have some cool years while the general trend is for the earth to become warmer. Of course you have to be intelligent and a Democrat to understand this.