Oil exports of the world's top 5 exporters could drop to zero by 2031

[GliderGuider]

This is the full article on the Net Oil Export crisis by Jeffrey Brown and co-author/statistician Khebab. It's a very important piece of work.

A Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exporters

There is increasing concern worldwide about global oil supplies, especially in the context of a global oil production peak. However, what really matters to oil importing countries is world net oil export capacity, and we are deeply concerned that the top five net oil exporting countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE (United Arab Emirates), collectively accounting for about half of current world net oil exports, in aggregate are going to show an ongoing decline in net oil exports, continuing an aggregate net export decline that began in 2006.

Some recent net export decline rates in other countries, such as Indonesia and the UK, have been quite severe.

Indonesia exported 780,000 bpd (Total Liquids) in 1996. Eight years later, Indonesia was a net oil importer.

In a similar fashion, the United Kingdom in 1999 was a major net oil exporter, exporting more than one million barrels per day (mbpd). Seven years later, the UK was a net importer.

(Here there is much detailed analysis of each exporting country. And then...)



Our middle case forecast is that the top five net oil exporting countries, accounting for about half of world net oil exports, will approach zero net oil exports around 2031—going from peak net exports to zero in about 26 years, versus seven years and eight years respectively for the UK and Indonesia. In our opinion, the only real difference between the top five and the UK and Indonesia is that the top five net exporters in 2005 had a lower rate of consumption relative to production.

Extrapolating from year to date 2007 data, it appears likely that the top five will show an average aggregate net export decline of about one mbpd per year in both 2006 and 2007, putting them on track to go from about 23 mbpd in net exports in 2005 to close to zero in the 2030 time frame.

Smaller oil exporters like Angola can and will increase their net exports, but smaller exporters, just like smaller oil fields, tend to have sharper production peaks and more rapid net export declines than do the larger net exporters. And offsetting many of the gains by some smaller exporters will be sharp declines in net exports from other smaller exporters like Mexico, the #2 source of imported crude oil into the US, which will probably approach zero net oil exports by 2014.

Declining net oil exports will inevitably result, absent a severe decline in demand in importing countries, in continued rapid increases in oil prices, as oil importing countries furiously bid against each other for declining oil exports.

Kudos to Jeffrey and Khebab for another fantastic piece of Oil Drum-inspired analysis.

If I lived in the USA I'd be oiling up the M1 Abrams to come north and take home the tar sands...

[phantom power]

1. "You surrender pronto, or we'll level Toronto!"

[AlertLurker]

2. Good luck!!!

I believe an M1 Abrams might last 30 seconds on the ice road going from from Fort Mac or Peace River to where the mining/drilling is currently being done. Next spring, it would just disappear into the moose muck!

Come anyway - we could use the additional scrap metal.

And don't forget the twinkies...we loooooove twinkies.

[hatrack]

3. Is it just me, or has TOD been unusually good lately, even by their usual standards?

Lots and lots of really substantive posts!

[GliderGuider]

4. Yes, they're really on a roll.

Even the hoi polloi are contributing above average commentary.

[hunter]

5. I think we'll be too busy shooting at one another to take Canada.

Anyone going to start up that M1 Abrams is going to discover the fuel has already been stolen to sell on the black market by cold, hungry, bitter "volunteer" soldiers with tattoos on their fingers.

[Javaman]

6. once the great contraction begins, exports will stop way before then. nt

[losthills]

7. When I was studying Ecology around 1980...

my favotite professor was alway saying that we were going to be out of oil in 60 years. I don't think he was too far off the mark. We're not going to be exactly "out of oil" by then, but the stuff we'll be going after will be very expensive to recover, and cause extreme environmental damage.

Russia just bestowed a medal on the guy that "claimed" the Arctic sea floor.....