What's up with the market...?

[kalian]

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2004/0115.html

And in particular...note how gold has taken a beating...almost 13
bucks.
Something tells me that the big-game players are taking everybody
out to the ringer....

[MercutioATC]

1. It's about trends, not blips...just wait, it ain't gonna be pretty...

Don't get me wrong, my 401k is still 100% stock, but it's only 20% in the S&P 500 now and 80% in small caps and international stocks. We're going to take a beating if things don't change...

[wunnerfulrobin]

2. Short gold now. Interest rates aren't going up anytime soon.

minimal inflation, no need to raise rates. Market money will bring up tax revenues this yr. Just watch and see...........

[MercutioATC]

3. Dollar generally down against the Euro, the Euro replacing the dollar

as the international petroleum currency, creating a temporary economic bounce with a 1.3 trillion dollar tax-giveaway that we're going to have to account for, flat job market...doesn't look so good to me.

[54anickel]

4. I dunno, but I love this guys phrase - greed-driven panic buying mania

That's great!

Regarding the markets, I really do not have a clue.

Gold is a little easier to figure out.
Gold move inversely to the buck. Buck up, gold down. It's been a bit flaky now and then in the last few weeks, but the trend still holds, has for ages.

Your article speculates that the buck is on a dead cat bounce. That's probably a good bet. Could be the PTB are propping it up for a bit to stop the whining. It's not as low as Greenspan wanted to see it. Matter of fact it's bounced back to where it was when all the whining started while he was insisting it still had a ways to go. So, it's a pretty good bet the buck will be on its way back down soon. That means gold should be on its way back up as well. Consider it being on sale right now. ;-)

[aneerkoinos]

5. Some observations

The center of gravity seems to have shifted towards ECB from Fed. Greenman didn't say anything noteworthy and if he did, nobody didn't pay any attention. Only after ECB made some long waited slightly worried remarks about currency, did dollar start it's correction.

The big story right now is yen. Breaking recistanse lines against dollar even as dollar is surging up. All the sharks smelling blood, buying yen with dollars and betting that no matter what, yen is going up, slow or fast?

[54anickel]

7. Not just Yen attracting investors, won, renimbi, even some Latin American

currency.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281076842

[Sir_Shrek]

6. Bigger ups and smaller downs....

Expectations for gains again this year, though not the big ones we saw in 2003. I've seen mostly 10%-12% gains expected by the close of 2004, which is actually just a little above average for typical market gains. Depending on who you ask, over the long term the stock market can be expected to average between 8% and 12% in gains. I think if you take in consideration the performance of the market from 2000 to 2003, this is somewhat important news. I pretty much agree with the analysis from a lot of talking heads that bigger, well-known companies are going to be the top performers, with mid and small caps doing well but not as well as 2003. I'm not an avid gold or bond follower, though I own both, so I'm not sure what the outlook is for them. If interest rates go up, bonds will obviously take a hit.

My own, very amateur, purely hobbyist specualtion is that the stock market is basically going to revert to some sort of normalcy this year. I don't think there are going to be any major occurrences (hope I'm right about this) that are going to shake the market again. It'll have its up days and it'll have its down days, just as usual. I don't think the November election will have a major impact on the markets, though we know that the markets may have a pretty good influence on November.