Bank says Saudi's top (oil) field in decline

[mhr]

Bank says Saudi's top field in decline
By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

Tuesday 12 April 2005

Speculation over the actual size of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves is reaching fever pitch as a major bank says the kingdom's - and the world's - biggest field, Gharwar, is in irreversible decline.

The Bank of Montreal's analyst Don Coxe, working from their Chicago office, is the first mainstream number-cruncher to say that Gharwar's days are fated.

Coxe uses the phrase 'Hubbert's Peak' to describe the situation. This refers to the seminal geologist M King Hubbert, who predicted the unavoidable decline of oilfields back in the 1950s.

"The combination of the news that there's no new Saudi Light coming on stream for the next seven years plus the 27% projected decline from existing fields means Hubbert's Peak has arrived in Saudi Arabia," says Coxe, referring to data compiled by the International Energy Association's (IEA) August 2004 monthly report.

Snip ......

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/08B97BCF-7BE6-4F1D-A846-7ACB9B0F8894.htm

[Coastie for Truth]

1. It's called "Peak Oil"

Check out the "Peak Oil" forum at http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=266,

Read
1. Deffeyes, "Beyond Oil : The View from Hubbert's Peak"
2. Deffeyes, "Hubbert's Peak : The Impending World Oil Shortage"
3. Goodstein, "Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil"
4. Yergin, "Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power>'

Google
1. "Peak Oil"
2. "M. King Hubbert"

Also, try Evans, "An Introduction to Economic Geology and Its Environmental Impact" - a good, readable intro to economics and natural resource geology.

It's here. It's happening. And we Americans are fat, dumb, happy, and unprepared.

[mhr]

2. Yes, Know That - And All Comments Are True!

eom

[IrateCitizen]

3. Oh yeah, it's a-coming...

Saudi officials talk as if they can instantly raise production with the wave of a wand. As the article points out, they pledged to raise production last year to bring prices back down -- and nothing happened. Now they're saying again that they can do at whim what they failed to do previously.

Look for markets to get more and more hectic. Any boost in production will likely be only short-term, resulting in an even sharper fall-off.

That's not a light at the end of that tunnel. That's the headlight of the oncoming train....