2008 Landslide Denied: Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll (TIA) -x

[tiptoe]

2008 Landslide Denied:  Uncounted Votes and the Final National Exit Poll

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Uncounted2008.htm

Nov 7, 2008

With almost 100% of precincts reporting, the latest election results show Obama leading by 65–57m votes (53–46%). That’s a very solid mandate, but his True Vote is better than that. The tremendous GOTV and new registration effort has not resulted in an increase in the recorded vote from 2004. Remember the 17m net increase from 2000 to 2004 (105m to 122m)? The media should be asking the questions. Why is the recorded count at 123m, when a 140m+ turnout was forecast? How many voters were told they had to complete provisional ballots?

Historically, about 75% of uncounted votes (spoiled, lost, provisional and absentee) are Democratic. Therefore, if 143m votes were actually cast, Obama’s current 8 million vote margin would increase to 18m 80–62m — a landslide rivaling Johnson (’64), Nixon (’72) and Reagan (’84). View the Election Calculator projection below.

•••

Obama must have done better than the 53–46% share as indicated by the Final National Exit Poll (NEP). The margin is probably closer to 55–43% (as projected by a few national pre-election polls).

In order to match the vote count, the Final NEP adjusts demographic category weights and vote shares. The 'Voted in 2004' category indicates a TOTALLY IMPLAUSIBLE  46%-Bush 37%-Kerry returning-2004-voter split of the 2008 electorate! Analysts would like to know what the split was in the earlier NEP update — before the Final was matched to the vote. We have the preliminary numbers from 2004 and the 2006 midterms. Changes to the “How Voted” mix of returning-voters from the Preliminary to the Final NEP were to the advantage of the GOP. The goal was to MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE COUNT. This election is no different. Landslide denied.

In 2004, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2000' 43/37% Bush/Gore returning-voter mix was impossible;
in the 12:22am Preliminary NEP it was 41/39%.  Election stolen.

In 2006, the Final NEP 'Voted in 2004' 49/43% Bush/Kerry returning-voter mix was implausible;
in the 7pm Preliminary NEP it was 47/45%.  Landslide denied.

The BIG question is this: How does the official 2.4% Bush 2004 margin equate to the 9% Bush margin in returning voters? It doesn’t. The anomaly is even more ridiculous, since Kerry won the True Vote (see the 2004 Election Calculator, below).

•••




Full story: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510524

 

[texpatriot2004]

1. k & r nm

[PDJane]

2. Kicked and recommended indeed.......

perhaps the US needs some election scrutineers from abroad....

[Phredicles]

3. Thanks - that's about what I thought was happeneing -

Obama won (and that's the most important thing) but what can most charitably be described as our messed-up voting procedures have obscured the magnitude of the electorate's wishes.

I know our new president-to-be has a whole lot on his plate, but I've come to the conclusion that ensuring the integrity of our elections by 2010 is the single most important thing that needs to be on his agenda, even given the bad state of our economy and our cruel joke of a health-care system - nothing else can be reliably fixed if our electoral processes are broken.

[tiptoe]

5. The Electoral Vote landslide is masking a popular vote shaving ("managing the mandate")

The Census's followup survey (0.30% MoE) will indicate the "True Vote" being corrupted.


2 million new democratic registrants (in 28 states), 344,000 FEWER Republicans (in 28 states)

Susan Eisenhower and moderate Repubs abandoning their "hijacked" party and supporting Obama...and only a 53% share for Obama?

[mcg]

6. Given the disparity in the size of rallies, it is difficult to believe

the reported results. Besides the voter purges, I suspect there was some fiddling with the counting.

[tiptoe]

4. If inclined & you haven't already: Please recommend at the "FULL STORY" link as well:

Thanks!


Full story: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x510524

[autorank]

7. The win is all the more remarkable considering all of this

They can't hide things anymore. This is great work and begins the process of unveiling even more dirty
tricks. The denial of a true landslide lets the creeps say, 'well we're still a divided nation.' Not so.

I made my own modest contribution to this inquiry by looking at the wave of primary turnout followed by
mundane turnout at the polls. http://usacoup.scoop.co.nz/?p=966

[Enthusiast]

9. I've heard several pukes claim

"This is still a center-right nation." BULLSHIT!

We need election reform! It must take place before 2012. The process of registration should be simple and foolproof and the election process must be easily verifiable and have every safeguard against tampering. These goals should be as important as any other priority.

[PatrickSMcNally]

11. "the creeps say, 'well we're still a divided nation.'"

That's not really exactly what has been said. The talk about "a divided nation" is a bit more recent than that. Here is what Anne E. Kornblut of The Boston Globe said on November 4, 2004:

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/11/04/on_to_a_second_term/

-----
Bush claimed sizable margins of victory in both the popular and electoral counts, overcoming the legacy of his one-term father and allowing him to claim a clear mandate to advance a conservative agenda over the next four years. Strong Republican performances in the House and Senate laid the groundwork for sweeping legislative action on taxes, Social Security, and education -- goals Bush named in his victory address.
-----

The Los Angeles Times claimed on the same day that:

http://www.spokesmanreview.com/tools/story_pf.asp?ID=35856

-----
Bush can claim a solid mandate of 51 percent of the vote, which made him the first presidential candidate to win a clear majority since 1988 – a point Bush aides made repeatedly Wednesday.

So while the president reached out to defeated Democrats in his brief victory remarks Wednesday afternoon, his aides and supporters were equally quick to suggest that his bipartisanship might not go far – and that they expect Bush's second term to pursue even more ambitious conservative goals than the first.
-----

One could make a laundry list of such stories, but it does seem that the concern about "a divided nation" is relatively recent. It's not so mush "we're still a divided nation" but that suddenly the issue of a division has arisen in a way inconsistent with the precedents.

[snot]

8. k&r'd

[Joe Chi Minh]

10. Those rallies weren't mirages.

[JohnWxy]

12. Extremely important post. M$M of course doesn't mention Republican efforts at election fraud.

I was worried whether Obama's margin would be big enough to overcome the gaming of the election by Repubs. They can't be too obvious or the Dems would finally speak up about it. But 3 to 4% they are definitely messing with.

We must get back to paper ballots and no electronic machines. This election, I think the early voting through monkey wrench in Republican tactics. They didn't know how to deal with this many early voters and thus we got the man who actually won the election despite there efforts to miscount the votes.


Tried to reccommend this thread but was too late. Book-marked.

thanks for the info and the links!