Obama's Strategy for Low-Turnout Caucuses Helps Drive Delegate Edge

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Obama's Strategy for Low-Turnout Caucuses Helps Drive Delegate Edge
By NICK TIMIRAOS
May 15, 2008; Page A6

For evidence of the strategy that has made Barack Obama the likely Democratic presidential nominee, look at Nebraska, where the candidate narrowly won a little-noticed primary Tuesday. Sen. Obama's 49% to 46% victory barely got any attention from the campaigns or the press, because the state's delegates, who vote on the nomination, were chosen in a February caucus. In that contest, where turnout was less than half that of the primary, Sen. Obama won in a 68% to 32% blowout and picked up a net eight delegates -- one more than Sen. Hillary Clinton later gained from her big win in the much bigger state of Ohio.

The contrasting Nebraska votes help illustrate how Sen. Obama has done a better job than Sen. Clinton of working low-turnout caucuses for big results, even as she racked up primary wins in some of the largest states. Of the 19 state and territory caucuses held since Iowa's kickoff event in January, Sen. Clinton has won only three. Sen. Obama has picked up a net 145 delegates out of the caucuses, which are open meetings where voters gather to nominate delegates to state conventions, as opposed to ballot-box primaries. That's 95% of his current lead of 152 among delegates chosen by popular votes.

The Democratic Party awards delegates proportionally, which means that landslide wins, even in small states, often yield more delegates than close wins in large states. Sen. Clinton won the April 22 Pennsylvania primary by 200,000 votes and picked up a net gain of 10 delegates. Sen. Obama won the Feb. 5 Idaho caucus by 13,000 votes and picked up a net 12 delegates....

***

The Obama campaign strategy, outlined during a series of meetings late last spring at the Chicago headquarters, was driven in part by a recognition that with early preparation, small and medium-size caucus states could yield as many delegates as many of the big states that were in the process of moving their contests to Feb. 5, the earliest date sanctioned by the Democratic Party. Twenty-two states and territories would hold contests that day, and eight were caucuses. By August, the campaign deployed to those caucus states staff from its Chicago headquarters, who trained local volunteers to run the ground campaign....

Iowa and Nevada were the only caucus states where the Clinton campaign had long-term operations. In most states, the campaign sent in staff weeks before some caucuses, a move that veterans on both sides said is far too little time to effectively organize....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121080653202293285.html

[skipos]

1. I guess Hillary wasn't ready on day one, huh?

Bill knew about these caucus thingies, and could have told her.

[still_one]

2. The primary campign is over. The Supreme Court is at stake. I have reached the point

where if the MSM or the individual supportrs want to continue to continue the primary fight I could care less

[DeepModem Mom]

3. I think this article assumes it's over --

and can serve as a valuable political lesson for future candidates. That would be, it seems to me, study the rules and figure out how to work them to advantage -- and, organize.

I appreciate your point, though -- what's really at stake.

[still_one]

4. Agreed, but I sense that there is still a lot of friction between supporters

of both candidates

[DeepModem Mom]

5. And that's an understatement, still! That's why I post in this little corner...

and stay out of GDP. There's not so much of that "friction."

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