Mississippi Projections

[babylonsister]

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/3/11/125818/587

Mississippi Projections

by BooMan
Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 12:58:18 PM EST


No one thinks that Hillary Clinton will win the primary in Mississippi today, but there are optimistic and pessimistic projections. The optimistic projection is that Obama will win 3 of the 4 congressional districts and pull a 20-13 delegate advantage, the pessimistic projection is that Obama will win one of the congressional districts and pull a 17-16 delegate advantage. Based on little more than a hunch, I think Obama will win 2 congressional districts. Obama will win the 2nd congressional district by a huge margin and pull a 5-2 (or possibly 6-1) delegate advantage. He will probably (but not definitely) lose the 1st congressional district. The big question is whether he can win the 3rd and 4th districts. I think he'll win the third and lose the fourth. If he can get more than 59.9% of the overall vote, he'll get a bonus delegate. Based on the polls, he is right at that 59.9% threshold, and everything will turn on organization and late deciders.

Mississippi's white population is among the least educated in the nation, and that spells trouble for Obama. He may not crack 20% of the white vote. If he does better with whites he will have a big night. My prediction:

Obama 58% Clinton 42% (Delegates O-6, C-5)
District 1- Delegates C-3, O-2
District 2- Delegates O-5, C-2
District 3- Delegates O-3, C-2
District 4- Delegates C-3, O-2

Total Delegates- Obama 18, Clinton 15

Factors that could help Obama: If he can win 59.9% of the vote he will get a 7-4 split in the at-large delegates. If he can get 78.57% of the vote in District 2, he will get a 6-1 split. If he can win District 4, he'll flip it to a 3-2 split in his favor.

Clinton needs to win Districts 1, 3, and 4, hold Obama below 78.57% in District 2, and keep him below 59.9% statewide. If she does that, she'll emerge just one delegate worse for wear.

The more convincing Obama's win the better the chances that he can bring forth a bloc of superdelegates to say that the race should not go on to Pennsylvania.

[babylonsister]

1. At stake today in Mississippi

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/03/at-stake-today.html

At stake today in Mississippi

33 delegates are up for grabs today. When the polls close, we will have selected 83% of all pledged delegates.

If they split the delegates 17-16, then Hillary Clinton will need to 66% of the remaining delegates to hit the real magic number of 1,627 - a majority of pledged delegates. If they split them 19-14, then Clinton will need to win 67%.

If they split them 20-13, then Clinton will say the people of Mississippi don't count and the state doesn't matter anyway. :)

[babylonsister]

2. Obama On Track For Big Victory In Mississippi Today

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_on_track_for_big_victory.php

Obama On Track For Big Victory In Mississippi Today
By Eric Kleefeld - March 11, 2008, 11:47AM

Today is the Mississippi primary, in which Barack Obama is excepted to win big thanks to heavy African-American turnout, as he has in other Deep South primaries.

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger says turnout is expected to be only light to moderate, but still higher than the 2004 primary when John kerry had already sewn up the nomination. The polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

Here are the latest polls:

ARG: Obama 54%, Clinton 38% (March 10)

InsiderAdvantage: Obama 54%, Clinton 37% (March 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 53%, Clinton 39% (March 8)