Was ignoring Iowa a fatal flaw in Clark's strategy?

[ringmastery]

If Kerry wins Iowa, he's going to go into New Hampshire with a ton of momentum and he's already starting to rise there.

The last NH poll from ARG I saw had Kerry nipping at Clark's heels:

Dean 28%
Clark 22%
Kerry 18%
Edwards 8%
Gephardt 3%

[Catch22Dem]

1. Don't know about fatal

You bring up a fantastic point about Kerry though. Truth is, when Clark made the decision to skip Iowa, Kerry was down for the count. To everyone's surprise, Kerry got back up. However, I think Clark also expected to do no better than 3rd in NH and instead he actually stands a chance of winning NH. Let's put it this way, Iowa and NH won't decide who the nominee is. Not by a long shot. Wat an interesting race!!!

[alfredo]

2. No, he had little money, so he did what he had to do.

It also gave him time to campaign not only in NH but SC. I would feel more confident with Kerry going up against Bush in a Debate, same with Gephardt.

As much as I like Clark, Kerry knows how to play the game. I am not happy with his vote on the war, but I will support him in a New York minute. Remember bush should not be elected in 2004.

We also need to get back the senate.

[feckerman]

3. Yes it was.

To me here is how it will happen:
* Kerry will place within the top 2 in Iowa, with Dean and Gephart taking 1st and 3rd respectively. (or 2nd or 3rd)
* While Dean may win, Kerry will get the coverage as the "comeback kid" etc. that he is already getting
* He will clearly come in and slow or destroy Clarks "momentum" in New Hamp. - taking 2nd to Dean.

What an interesting race after all. Don't forget about Edwards. He is within the margin of error of winning Iowa too....

Clark needed to be in that action.

[alfredo]

6. this should be a good show.

I wouldn't put money on the out come of the primaries.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. ARG even said in their commentary yesterday

that based on past Iowa bounces, Kerry was within striking
range.  And now today, Kerry is up another two points in NH
with this comment:

"This table shows that about 63% of the volatility in the
race during the past week was due to shifts among undeclared
voters and it could be argued that by the end of the week the
news from Iowa was having a greater impact on those shifts
than the news from New Hampshire."

And what are those shifts?

Changes in Ballot Preference by Party - 1/9 to 1/16
Jan 16 	  Democrats 	Change 	Undeclared 	Change
Clark 	        19% 	0 	29% 	        + 5
Dean 	        33% 	- 2 	15% 	        - 21
Edwards 	7% 	+ 4 	11% 	        + 10
Gephardt 	4% 	0 	0% 	        0
Kerry 	        16% 	+ 4 	21% 	        + 17
Kucinich 	2% 	0 	0% 	        0
Lieberman 	7% 	0 	2% 	        - 8
Sharpton 	0% 	0 	0% 	        0
Undecided 	12% 	- 6 	22% 	        - 3
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

No change for Clark among Democrats, who are looking at the
results in Iowa and moving away from Dean, but even more so,
away from undecided, and towards Kerry and Edwards.  No
movement towards Clark because they still haven't seen him
prove he can be the vote-getter to beat Bush.

bue look at the undeclareds - a whopping 21 point dive for
Dean - but only a 5 point gain for Clark, as most goes to
Kerry  and Edwards. Lieberman too, not competing in Iowa,
takes a hit.  Because if you can't even compete in the Iowa
caucuses, can you really beat Bush?

[brainwashed_youth]

5. man

with the drama in iowa and everywhere else thsi is gonna make for some good drama

[Donovan_McNabb]

7. No

He came in too late.

[9119495]

8. Not fatal but it was a mistake.

Clark only needed to come in fourth to claim a victory here in Iowa. He'd be the man on the move coming out of Iowa. Now, he and Kerry will be splitting votes in NH.

[flaminbats]

9. Only if Dean loses Iowa...

If this happens the primary will evolve into a two-man race between Dean and the winner in Iowa.

Otherwise Clark will have his second chance in New Hampshire.

[floridaguy]

10. Iowas decision was good strategy . .

If you look at the national polls, it is essentially a two-man race in the country as a whole - Dean vs. Clark. The only bad thing that could have happened was that if Dean would have won Iowa convincingly. Now, Clark has a good chance of either winning NH or being a close second. When the race gets to the South, neither Kerry or Dean will compete with Clark. Edwards doesn't stand a chance in NH, and he will lose his momentum before getting to SC.

Tonight's results were consistent with the Clark strategy of skipping Iowa. If you don't remember, Bill Clinton didn't win in Iowa either, and he did okay.

With Dean fading like a lead balloon, Clark is in position to win the nomination.