Long Island turning to the left, what does this mean?

[ButterflyBlood]

here's something I found rather interesting looking through some old election results.

Percentages in 2000:

Nassau county:

Gore: 57.93%
Bush: 38.49%
Nader: 2.51%

Suffolk county:

Gore: 53.38%
Bush: 41.99%
Nader: 3.16%

so as you can see, Gore won Long Island by a very fair margin. However it wasn't always like this. In 1976 Jimmy Carter won New York, but these were his results on Long Island:

Nassau: Ford: 47.73%/Carter: 51.87%
Suffolk: Ford: 45.33%/Carter: 54.18%

and the results since then:

1980:
Nassau: Reagan: 55.97%/Carter: 34.83%/Anderson: 7.51%
Suffolk: Reagan: 57.00%/Carter: 33.35%/Anderson: 7.73%

1984:
Nassau: Reagan: 61.83%/Mondale: 37.96%
Suffolk: Reagan: 66.03%/Mondale: 33.72%

1988 (Dukakis won New York, but look at Bush I's margins):
Nassau: Dukakis: 42.22%/Bush I: 56.96%
Suffolk: Dukakis: 38.73%/Bush I: 60.51%

1992:
Nassau: Clinton: 46.38%/Bush I: 40.52%/Perot: 12.65%
Suffolk: Clinton: 38.88%/Bush I: 40.40%/Perot: 19.89% (Bush I still won)

but then in 1996:

Nassau: Clinton: 55.74%/Bush I: 36.14%/Perot: 6.63%
Suffolk: Clinton: 51.83%/Dole: 36.13%/Perot: 10.33%

It turned to clearly electing Democrats in presidential elections.

I also looked up the results of the Senate race in 2000:

Nassau:
Lazio (Republican ticket, I'm too lazy to add up the others): 294,205 (49.2%)
Hillary (Democratic ticket, same thing): 254,218 (42.5%)

Suffolk:
Lazio (same as above): 303,906 (52.6%)
Hillary (same as above): 225,027 (38.9%)

Lazio did pretty well in Suffolk, but it was his home county. Yet he still didn't beat many of the Republican presidential candidates in the past. And Nassau came a lot closer. In addition his House seat was won by Democrat Steve Israel. Israel won in a landslide in 2002 facing a retired NYC firefighter who had to quit due to lung damage he sustained during 9/11. I imagine the "9/11 hero" was exploited majorly in a place pretty close to home, and Israel still won in a landslide. Meanwhile in the first district, first term Republican Felix Grucci was defeated by Democrat Tim Bishop, in what was once LI's most Republican district. Now Peter King is the only Republican on Long Island, and it looks like once he leaves we'll get his seat.

Long Island has always had a bit of Orange county-ish "I got mine, screw your's mentality", hence its Repukeness. But this is changing, and while the Democrats don't need it to win New York, it's interesting to ask what this trend means. Could this mentality not be bringing in Repuke votes anymore and the rich suburbs will drift away from them?

[lcordero]

1. From the people that I have talked to from LI

The recession has hit them especially hard.

[sabbat hunter]

4. speaking as a long islander

the main reason long island in general, and nassau county in particular, is becoming more Democrat is two fold
1) for years the republicans had a one party rule in nassau, and completely screwed the county finances over. spending money that didnt exist, relying on one shot revenues, over optimistic sales tax revenues. also they fought for years a property reassessment, which cost hundreds of millions in lawsuits. every year the revenues were lower than forecast, forcing the county to borrow to cover spending. Tom Gullotta and his republican board of supervisors and subsequent county legislature refused to raise property taxes. they campaigned on that year after year, that they kept property taxes down.

but finally it all fell down, the county, one of the richest in the country, nearly had to declare bankruptcy. the state (controlled by a repub gov) stepped in and had a financial oversight board installed.
the republicans continued to campaign on that all was well, but the voters were smarter than that. first they elected a bare democratic majority on the legislature, then a county exec. now a third straight dem legislature. (lost one seat, gained another)
repubs continue to complain about budgets and taxes going up, saying they could do better but offer no alternative plans.

2) the demographics of the county have changed, from WASPy to more diverse.
current enrollment in the county repub to dem is 5-4. twenty years ago it was 2-1. a few years ago it was 3-2.


peace
david
:hippie:

[Northwind]

2. Interesting

My girlfriend is from Sayville (in Suffolk County) and is very liberal, but her family is quite solidly GOP, although they hate Bush. Her brother is a marine who served in Iraq last year.

I will be keeping me ears open this next week, we are flying out to see her family tomorrow morning. Gonna spend two days wandering Manhatten. wOOt!

[NewJerseyDem]

3. All NYC suburbs are shifting left

The New Jersey suburbs have moved steadily to the democratic party over the past decade and I assume that Long Island has been going through the same thing. If you look at NJ suburbs like Bergen County you will probably see very similar stats.

Long Island and parts of New Jersey are some of the wealthiest in the country but ar quite liberal on social issues. The extreme positions taken by Gingrich and others on abortion, gun control, the environment and gay rights has left many people from this area repulsed by the extremism of the republican party.

Also, I think that the area has more "new money" than before where the people didn't necessarily grow up extremely wealthy. These people aren't all the WASPs that used to dominate northeast politics.

While Long Island remains fairly republican in state politics, I believe, the national republican party is way too far to the right for the area to tolerate.

[Forkboy]

5. That the Gulf Stream is getting stronger?

:evilgrin:

[Name removed]

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