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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 05:31 PM
Original message
Latest Computer Models on Dennis


Look out, Florida panhandle.
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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. The yellow track
NHC98E is very similar to one of the early forcast tracks from FSU meteorology department yesterday.....can't have access to the really good model...super ensemble...that costs LOTS of $$$$$.

opinions from some professionals are that the "meso scale" models are probably more accurate....I'm stil trying to figure out which ones are "meso" and which are "global"....have to hang out at flhurricane.com some more to find out. Here's a link:

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Numbe...

and a snip from the discussion:

Just watched News Channel 8 & 13...both use the VIPIR model that our own JK helped design! It's interesting to note that the VIPIR models have also shifted to the east.

So, yes, I think the next model runs will be interesting to see.

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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Thank you for the link.
I have a HURRICANE folder in my favorites, and I just added this one.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
2. It's starting to wind up tight...it could still end up anywhere...
Edited on Thu Jul-07-05 05:47 PM by Baclava
Not good

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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. That's the first clear image of the eye that I have seen.
IT had split into two eyes, but now it's wound up into one very clear eye.

I read that it could be category 4 after Cuba. :scared:
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KG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 08:43 PM
Response to Original message
5. eeekkk!
:scared:
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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 09:42 PM
Response to Original message
6. oh-oh!
Look at this post from flhurrican.com

I am in on the NHC conference call via my local NWS office...

Dennis is now a cat 4. 951 mb. 134 knt at FL on recon. 115 knots , gust to 140 kt.


Later on they said that the upgrade will show up on the 11 o'clock advisory.

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Massacure Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. 11 o'clock in what time zone?
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. Eastern Standard Time
n/t
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Yes, I had seen that on the wunderground blog.
It's Cat 4 now. Expected to lose a little steam over Cuba and then regain Cat 4 status.

Plus, the meteorologists on the blog are all saying that there is no way to know where it's going to go, after Cuba. So they are all waiting on the models tomorrow AM before making any reliable prediction.

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Not_Giving_Up Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
7. Well, Texas is out of the track
(for now anyway)

Whew!
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Texas may be, but NO isn't.
The models keep jogging east and west. No one will know exactly where it will go until it enters the warm gulf water. I've got a bad feeling about NO, and I don't know why.
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Lady Effingbroke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:22 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Oh, Maddy, you and all of the other southeastern Gulf Coasters take care,
this looks like it's shaping up to be a(nother) bad one! :scared: :scared: :scared: :hug: :hug: :hug:
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merh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:36 PM
Response to Reply #10
15. shit!
:scared:
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Gay Green Donating Member (485 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-05 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #10
22. Maddy! Don't you PUT that out into the Universe!
N.O. is a very BLUE city in one of the REDDEST states!!!
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-05 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. I love New Orleans.
:hi:

I'm praying that New O. evades this storm. The city definitely can't handle the storm surge and the rain that would come with a Cat4 Hurricane.
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Penndems Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
12. The latest advisory from NOAA . . .
000
WTNT34 KNHC 080237
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...DENNIS BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDANA DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN
AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING PROVINCES OF CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND PINAR
DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF
AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO
LONGBOAT KEY.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI IS CANCELLED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WARNINGS
IN JAMAICA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR NEAR CABO CRUZ
CUBA AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS
NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF DENNIS REMAINS OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS FROM THE AFFECTED AREA
INDICATE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
**********************************************************************
This thing is a MONSTER. :scared:


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Zuni Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:26 PM
Response to Original message
13. I am fascinated by Hurricanes
Are you on the Gulf Coast Maddy?


I just hope this thing won't be a full size cat 4 when it hits.
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. I'm inland, north of New Orleans.
Merh, though, lives on the Back BAy in Biloxi. Very scary for her.
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merh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. Maddy
Just want you to know my friend called and said he would be over Saturday to help board up the house. I'll be out of here and not sitting on the Bay. It is scarey, but I will be fine. :hug:

Heck, I won't clean up my yard from Cindy, figure Dennis will mess it up all over again if it comes this way. And who knows, maybe a casino in the backyard. :shrug:

They did begin to put the Hard Rock's guitar up - don't know why except they had no place to put it but where they had planned for it to be.

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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 11:05 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Glad you have help!
Let me know if you end up with a casino in your yard. I'll come down and we'll plunder. :D

And I want to bring the Double 7 slot machine home with me. :D
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merh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-08-05 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. LOL
Deal! :thumbsup:

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jab105 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
16. My motherinlaw is on Pensacola Beach...she's still not back in her
house after Ivan (bad contracter put a roof on that leaked)...she's supposed to be in in 6 weeks...ugh!
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Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. My cousin lives in P'cola, too.
He's about 75% through rebuilding after Ivan. He's really upset about Dennis.
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jim3775 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-07-05 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
19. Stick to the cone
Edited on Thu Jul-07-05 10:56 PM by jim3775
The computer models are very deceptive

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