predicting the market and fortune telling?

[imenja]

Is there any difference? I say no. Might as well read tea leaves.

[MazeRat7]

1. Well actually.....yes

Reading "tea leaves" is an "instantaneous" point in time... predicting the market is generally based on "trends". I am not trying to say you can predict market variances... however observation based on previous fact (trend) is definitely more viable than an instantaneous point in time (tea leaves, chicken bones, etc)... *grin..

MZr7

[pscot]

2. Some reading in abnormal psych

might help. Or maybe just watching national geographic specials. Have you ever noticed how the market can be going in one direction and all of a sudden it's going the other way? The entire market seems to be able to turn on a dime, like one of those vast shoals of fish that reverse direction simultaneously, and for no apparent reason.

[BillZBubb]

3. Of course there is a difference

Evidently you subscribe to the random walk/efficient market school. I don't.

Making useful market predictions based on factual information is possible. No predictions are going to be 100% accurate, but the odds can be pushed in your favor. That's how you make money--being right more times than not. For instance, if there is a Democratic president, the markets will do better than if there is a Repug president. Not a big prediction and not always correct--just usually.

With tea leaves there is no method to get the odds in your favor. It is all guesswork with no empirical data. Totally dumb luck. Random chance.

[imenja]

5. why do they seldom get it right?

Ever day you see these market forecasters on television predicting this or that, and as far as I can tell, they are no more accurate than a simple toss of coin.

[BillZBubb]

6. "They" are not serious analysts of the markets

The people you see on TV aren't the ones making money in the markets. Usually they are shills for brokerage houses trying to drum up business or just reporters with no real background in finance. All they do is parrot the current consensus view, which isn't any more informed than a coin toss.

[Nite Owl]

4. Yes, there is a difference

there are definite patterns that are repeated. These patterns are like footprints that show emotions, greed and fear, on a grid. It isn't easy to figure out but it can be done to the penny sometimes.