How meaningful are general election polls at this point?

[LSdemocrat]

Poll question: How meaningful are general election polls at this point?

[kainah]

1. Depends entirely on the poll

What question are they asking? Who are they polling? What's the margin of error? Some are good, some are ridiculous. More importantly, watch the trend.

From recent polls, here are some potentially important findings: *'s poll ratings go up and down, swinging wildly with events. This indicates that many people do not have a firm opinion of him. This is UNLIKE Bill Clinton whose poll ratings remained remarkably stable no matter what new "scandal" broke about him.

* has among the highest ever re-elect (will definitely vote for) ratings among his base. He is right up there with Reagan and Eisenhower. HOWEVER, he also has the highest recorded "will definitely NOT vote for him" ratings ever recorded. This means he has a very high floor of support but also a very low ceiling to expand. In fact, there may only be about 10% of the public who are willing to consider voting for him but are not already committed to doing so. That is opposed to about twice as many who are willing to consider voting for a generic Dem but are not yet committed to doing so.

Those kinds of polls, IMHO, are very significant. They tell you where the weaknesses are, where the strategy to defeat should be focused.

[mikehiggins]

2. The only polls I'm concerned with

are the ones that close after the voters vote. Everything else is talk.

[LSdemocrat]

5. Agreed

Politics can be incredibly fluid. Gore was down by as many as five points is polls a week before the election. Polls, especially this early, are practically meaningless.

[arewethereyet]

3. if you really are about ditching Bush, they matter a lot

there is no sense in nonminating someone who the general electorate dislike. Its important to watch the support flow as issues that would concern the G.E. drift by.

This tells you who becomes your best shot and thats where you go.

If you're clever/lucky, you pick a guy early who will be there at the end. My bet was Edwards, it was a relativly easy choice.

[tsipple]

4. Dukakis Was Leading By 17 Points 90 Days Out

Looking at national polls 10+ months out is pure folly.

[KG]

6. even less meaningful than this poll

:)