Scenarios in which someone other than Dean wins the nomination

[dolstein]

Here are a few:

1. The Gephardt sceniaro -- Gephardt shocks everyone and wins Iowa decisively. The press immediately annoints him as a the "stop Dean" candidate. Suddenly a Dean victory no longer seems inevitable. Gephardt finishes a surprisingly strong second in New Hampshire. Kerry drops out. Gephardt wins South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma on February 3. Edwards, Lieberman and Clark drop out. Gephardt defeats Dean in Michigan -- the first true "head to head" match-up between the candidates. Now the momentum is solidly behind Gephardt.

2. The Edwards scenario -- Gephardt narrowly edges out Dean in Iowa, but the real news is Edwards' surprisingly strong third place finish. Edwards' status as the "stop Dean" candidate is cemented by his second place finish in New Hampshire the following week. Kerry and Gephardt drop out. Edwards wins South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma on February 3. Lieberman and Clark drop out. Edwards defeats Dean in Michigan -- the first true "head to head" match-up between the candidates. Now the momentum is solidly behind Edwards.

3. The Clark scenario -- Gephardt narrowly edges out Dean in Iowa, but, short of cash, finishes a disappointing fourth in New Hampshire and drops out. The real news in New Hampshire is Clark's surprisingly strong second place finish, fueled by an unexpectedly large influx of independent voters. Kerry, who finishes a disappointing third, drops out. Clark wins South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma on Feburary 3. Edwards and Lieberman drops out. Clark defeats Dean in Michigan -- the first true "head to head" match-up between the candidates.

Frankly, I'm completely at a loss when it comes to devising a scenario (other than one involving multiple plane crashes) in which Kerry gets the nomination. And while I can imagine a scenario in which Lieberman gets the nomination, it really isn't worth the effort.

[robsul82]

1. I think that...

"I can't envision Kerry winning short of multiple plane crashes" sums up the whole sorry state of affairs.

Later.

RJS

[displacedtexan]

14. MI Governor's husband

is on kerry's national steering committee.
hhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

[goobergunch]

2. So if Dean wins Michigan, he's pretty much assured of victory? (n/t)

[Bombtrack]

4. No, Tennessee and Virginia are on the same day as Michigan

and nothings official until at least super tuesday, 3 weeks after those 3 primaries

[UrbScotty]

8. Probably, if he's also won Iowa and New Hampshire.

That's what I think, anyway.

[dolstein]

15. Not necessarily, but Michigan is likely to be a big deal . . .

because there's a good chance that by then the field will have been narrowed and the leading alternative to Dean will have emerged. If that alternative is Gephardt, then I'd say that a Dean victory pretty much clinches it. But if the alternative is someone like Edwards or Clark, I think the race may not be over until sometime in March.

[jpgray]

3. It's sad that Gephardt should have a better chance than Kerry

Nothing to me describes what is wrong with our primary more than this. It's true Dean and Kerry are competing for the same people, and Gephardt gets the scraps, but it still sucks that the Rose Garden candidate is more likely to win now than Kerry.

[eissa]

20. You're right on that

I'm in Dean's column, but I respect Kerry. That Gephardt, who I consider the poster child for the weak democrats, is now ahead of Kerry IS sad indeed.

[HereSince1628]

5. Scenario...

Maverick asteroid strikes hall in which democratic primary candidates debate...

Hillary Clinton reluctantly accepts a devastated party's nomination.

[jpgray]

7. DLC blamed for asteroid.

:D

But seriously, Hillary is not as solid a speaker as most of the major candidates, nor is she as good on the issues as most of the major candidates.

[UrbScotty]

11. Or at least they SAY it's an asteroid...

You know PNAC, right?

[HereSince1628]

Tin hats want to know why missle defense wasn't deployed...

[mot78]

6. I vote for #3!

:hi:

[Patriot_Spear]

9. My only caveat is that these scenario's must have SOME basis in reality...

So far I have'nt seen one that does...

[HereSince1628]

16. I take it you don't like the asteroid scenario...

[Patriot_Spear]

17. LOL... slightly more realistic than the others...

Of course he's right in that nothing is etched in stone and anything could happen. But the probabilities are against it right now...

[ComerPerro]

10. 4. The FReeper scenario

Hillary (or, should I say Hitlery) decides to be the VP of our candidate. She runs with him, and everyone votes her because, unlike FReepers, they aren't smart enough to see how evil she is. So, everyone votes for her and our nominee despite Hillary's (I mean Hitlery, damn!) pledge to sacrafice everyones first born child to her master, the Devil. Hillary and our candidate win, and the Hillary kills our candidate and becomes Emperor for life.


Any questions?

[HereSince1628]

18. Technical question...Wouldn't that be Empress?

[ComerPerro]

19. No

Because Hitlery is a man, I think, according to, uh, some guy I talked to. The fact that Hitlery says it is a woman makes it more of a liar, right? right?

[Padraig18]

12. Are asteroids, earthquakes and plagues ruled out in the scenario?

;)

[sleipnir]

13. Interesting for debate, but highly unlikely

Sorry, but Dean's got the nomination. I've come to accept this, but I won't rule anything out 100%...

That said, it's interesting, I feel #1 is the most likey, but I wouldn't bet money on that happening.

Dean will win, it's only a matter of time...

Dean is quickly becoming the media darling, and that makes him the nominee in our modern media driven world. Clark has been shut out (and will continue to be shut out) of the media for no damn good reason (it pisses me off!) and Kerry isn't good on TV. Dean's got the media's attention, and with a TV Nation, Dean has wrapped up the nomination...