Will we have a nominee after March 2, (super tuesday)

[Bombtrack]

it seems more and mroe that there are going to be 3 or 4 strong candidates going into super tuesday, and I'm just wondering if those states will produce a clear winner, or if more primaries will be needed.

I think it's clear that those candidates going into it will be Dean, Kerry, and Gephardt. And if Edwards can get a little more coverage between now and then I think he'll also be on par with them.

Anyway I think that if Edwards can make it PAST 3/2 he could win the next 2 primaries on the ninth, Florida and Louisiana.

By 3/2 I'm confident that Lieberman and Graham will have dropped out and I believe Edwards can get a decent chunk of that support

[BeachBuckeye]

1. Oh how I long for the old days when we had open conventions.!

Those were such exciting days when we had no clear-cut winner till the convention.

[mlawson]

2. Yep. THAT was excitement!!!

Staying up on Wednesday night, and wondering which ballot will put the nominee over the top.

I suppose that nowadays, the nominee needs much more time before November, to get MONEY... What a shame!

[mlawson]

3. Hmmmm. You think Lieberman will drop out early?

I doubt it. He will hang on to the end, and he just MIGHT be installed as nominee by the party machine. Unless they decide that it's Kerry.

I really believe that by March 2nd, the DNC/DLC will have made its decision, and will pump enormous sums of money and others adventages into the campaign of its Chosen One. All of a sudden, in February, one candidate will just 'take off'. As if by magic.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. Does the Chosen One look like this?

[mlawson]

5. Maybe. Or he looks like Kerry.

Gephardt hopes he looks like himself....

But probably one of the three; they have the most political 'chits' to cash in. SSDY.

[ShaneGR]

6. Here is the primary schedule

MY THOUGHTS: We will know who the nominee is after Super Tuesday. If Edwards is to capture the Democratic nomination he needs to do finish third in New Hampshire followed by winning South Carolina and New Mexico. With some momentum on his side he would then need to carry Virginia and Tennessee. Then it's all dice on the table for Super Tuesday.


2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Calendar

January
• 1/13: District of Columbia Primary
• 1/19: Iowa Caucuses
• 1/27: New Hampshire Primary

February
• 2/03: Arizona Primary
• 2/03: Delaware Primary
• 2/03: Missouri Primary
• 2/03: New Mexico Dem. Caucuses
• 2/03: Oklahoma Primary
• 2/03: South Carolina Primary
• 2/03: Virginia GOP Caucuses
• 2/07: Michigan Dem. Caucuses
• 2/07: Washington Dem. Caucuses
• 2/08: Maine Caucuses
• 2/10: Tennessee Primary
• 2/17: Wisconsin Primary
• 2/24: Idaho Dem. Caucuses
• 2/24: Michigan GOP Primary
• 2/24: Virginia Dem. Primary
• 2/27: Utah Primary (tentative)

March
• 3/02: California Primary
• 3/02: Connecticut Primary
• 3/02: Georgia Primary
• 3/02: Hawaii Dem. Caucuses
• 3/02: Maryland Primary
• 3/02: Massachusetts Primary
• 3/02: Minnesota Caucuses
• 3/02: New York Primary
• 3/02: Ohio Primary
• 3/02: Rhode Island Primary
• 3/02: Texas Primary
• 3/02: Vermont Primary
• 3/09: Florida Primary
• 3/09: Louisiana Primary
• 3/09: Mississippi Primary
• 3/16: Illinois Primary
• 3/20: Wyoming Primary

April
• 4/13: Colorado Primary
• 4/27: Pennsylvania











May
• 5/04: Indiana Primary
• 5/04: North Carolina Primary
• 5/11: Nebraska Primary
• 5/11: West Virginia Primary
• 5/18: Arkansas Primary
• 5/18: Kentucky Primary
• 5/18: Oregon Primary

June
• 6/01: Alabama Primary
• 6/01: Montana Primary
• 6/01: New Jersey Primary
• 6/01: South Dakota Primary

TBD
• North Dakota
• Alaska
• Kansas

NOTE: In an effort to frontload the primaries, the DNC has announced that any State can now move up their primary to within 7 days of the New Hampshire Primary. Arizona has already taken advantage of this decision by moving their primary up to early February.