Shall we update this 2004 electoral map?

[Zomby Woof]

Take this graphic with a grain of salt if you must, I think it has some weaknesses myself. But it underscores the fact that including Florida - especially Florida - the Democrats will have a difficult time winning back the White House next year without a substantial stab at the southeast corner of the country. Also, it reverses the normal color scheme, and makes the Democrats red, so bear with it.

Another flaw with the map is it was updated on September 29, and much has happened since then, especially in Iraq. On the other hand, with people wrapped up (pun intended) with Christmas right now, there may a holding pattern until the new year, when the primaries loom. So let's try hypothesizing our own updates, shall we? They do promise a new map in January, which will reflect Clark's campaign.

Starting in the west, I think the west coast will stay Dem, even California, which shouldn't be judged ONLY through the prism of the recent recall and installation of the Gropenfuhrer. But I think Arizona is NOT as strong for Bush, and in fact, his support here has weakened considerably since this map was made. Put it in "lean Bush".

New Mexico as well is a swing state, so it could narrowly go either way. Lean Bush again. The rest of the Rocky Mountain states will likely go Republican, as well as the states right down the middle, from North Dakota to Texas. The map is right on that part, as it is for Alaska and Hawaii.

My biggest point of contention is having Pennsylvania and Ohio lean Bush. I think those are up for grabs. Any one in these states care to take a stab?

Even with PA and OH in the Dem column, Florida really stands out again as a near-must. We can win without it, and with Jeb and the fix being set up again, we may have to concede a strategy to win without Florida. PA and Ohio are MUST WINS in this case. But we will need more than those 2 to pull that off.

This is where I want you all to come in - what it is like in your state? Do you think anything has changed since this map was made? Which states do you consider MUSTS for us??

The site says they do not think the solid states will change at all, although it allows for something major to happen in order to change them. To me, that could be Iraq. The encouraging fact is some of the Dem-leaning states once leaned Bush.

So let's hear your analysis!

From the site:

-snip-

The good news for the Democrats is that eight of the nine states that shifted from the previous analysis shifted toward them. Florida, Louisiana, and Ohio (worth 56 electoral votes) move from the SOLID BUSH to the LEANING BUSH column. New Hampshire and Wisconsin (worth 14 votes) move from the LEANING BUSH to the LEANING DEMOCRATIC column. New York, Oregon, and Washington (worth 49 votes) move from the LEANING DEMOCRATIC to the SOLID DEMOCRATIC column. Only Connecticut moves to the right in this analysis, but even it remains in the LEANING DEMOCRATIC column. That's 119 electoral votes moving towards the left! With 231 electoral votes, the Democratic candidate is only 39 votes away from winning in 2004.

-snip-
Link: http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html#map

[Mz Pip]

1. The colors are

backwards! Hard for me to look at CA as a RED state!

MzPip
:dem:

[Zomby Woof]

2. I addressed that, lol

But you know, it used to be that the colors varied from network to network when I was growing up and watching returns. Even as recently as the 90's, you could see the Dems be red on one network, and blue on another. I think it was 2000 that sealed the now-infamous red-GOP/blue-Dem color scheme. :-)

[OKNancy]

46. No not backwards

Too many people don't understand that the incumbant party is listed in BLUE.

Talking about "red" states is according to the Clinton era.

The incumbant party is blue, the non-incumant is red.

Democrats will be red next election.

[dusty64]

3. New Mexico,

Nevada as solid rethug states. Iowa, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, as lean rethug. Where did you find this and what are they smokin? New Jersey and Connecticut as only lean Dem. I think this map is a load of crap. I do forsee the possbility of another tie though. If jebby steals Flordia again and everything stays the same except New Hampshire and West Virginia turning blue, the result will be a 269-269 tie. Any guesses what will happen then?

[Mz Pip]

4. Congress votes?

Whoopee. Kind of like the Supremes picking the PRez.

MzPip
:dem:

[dusty64]

6. Oh boy, no guesses

what would happen there. I do think additional states will turn blue next year, that is if the electronic "voting" machines allow them to.

[Zomby Woof]

8. but!

It is Constitutional for the House of Representatives to break a tie, as happened in 1824 as the most famous example. SCOTUS doing it is NOT, as we all know too well. :evilfrown:

[ochazuke]

14. Tie breaking

It's the incoming house that decides it? Or the outgoing one?

[Zomby Woof]

17. the next

It would be decided when the next House convenes in January. Either way, that could be bad for the Dems, who have a lot of catching up to do in the House.

[Zomby Woof]

7. I admit it is far from perfect

Plus, the national mood has shifted a bit since it was last done. I am eager to see if the January re-adjustment will bring new revelations.

Please don't scare me with the tie-breaking scenario. But you have a point. :-)

[dusty64]

13. I really see

no reason New Mexico was considered by the map makers to be solid rethug. They have voted Democratic in the last three cycles why change now? Nevada, Arizona are tossups and could easily go "red" (for the maps sake). Missouri and Ohio are swing and Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennesee are worthy of serious contention. I think they're smoking crack to consider Iowa lean rethug, the last time Iowa went rethug was in 1984 and that is not going to change. The base there needs some shoring up, but I don't see it happening. Pennsylvania leaning rethug, ain't buying it especially after the 2002 election there. I do not see CT or NJ going rethug either and I would consider West Virgina a tossup at worst and very easily winnable.

[Zomby Woof]

16. New Mexico

Gore BARELY won it in 2000. It was literally low 4 digits or something very Florida-like. So it is definitely anybody's.

Remember, with fear, the war, and other BS, I can see this map being fairly accurate for September. Iraq has eroded his support a lot since then, which is why I think January will bring exciting improvements in the findings. Perhaps all of your predictions about who leans where will come to pass.

[dusty64]

18. I hope so, I'm not

nearly as optimistic in my forecasts as I was last year, but then again some VERY strange occurences with voting machines made by some pretty scary extremist rightwingers. I know New Mexico was close, but certainly not a solid rethug state. At worst a tossup and swing state. Resources will have to be spent there and it can not be ignored but it really was so close due to the Greens, nader got almost 4%. I seriously doubt the rethugs have won many hearts and minds there. The Democrats wins there in 2002 has given me hope this state will be won by much bigger margins than in 2000.

[sistersofmercy]

26. I was just in NM and saw Dean bumper stickers everywhere.

Also saw big Peace Is Patriotic bumper stickers, the ppl I talked to don't want bush*. Of course most of my time was in Santa Fe but I predict NM won't be repug in 04.

[Zomby Woof]

27. Peace is Patriotic!

I love it! :thumbsup:

Thanks for the report. :-)

[Yupster]

30. Electoral vote tie

the race gets thrown to th House of representatives with each state delegation getting one vote. Since the Republicans are generally stronger in the smaller states, I would think they would win that one handily.

Bush would then hit each way you coud win except the traditional one where you actually get the most votes.

[gmoney]

5. Dang!

That's a lotta dark blue real-estate...

What pale blue states have to become pale red to swing it to the Dems? Would Ohio and Florida do the trick, or will it take Pennsylvania, too?

If Clark's in the first or second spot, that might swing Arkansas, too.

[Catt03]

9. Please! Change the colors

I don't want to be red.

[Zomby Woof]

10. sorry!

I didn't make them up. It's from a non-profit site, and it seems fair in its analysis. I don't mind being red, the "commie" color. ;-) That's what the fascists think of us anyway.

[Ediacara]

11. Add PA, WV, IA to the "red" side

And probably the same for New Mexico, and Louisiana. Arkansas, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Ohio are easily within our grasp. Arizona, Montana, Tennessee, and Georgia are places we should go after as well.

[Zomby Woof]

12. I mostly agree with you

I don't see Florida as easily within our grasp. 2000 still stings, and Jeb is still guarding the henhouse. But I can see Nevada as a surprise, although it isn't squat for electoral votes - BUT we don't have an electoral vote to take for granted, so I am not dismissing it either.

[dusty64]

15. Georgia, I

would forget it. It appears diebold has a stranglehold on that state and there were some VERY odd election results there since they went over to electronic "voting".

[AndyTiedye]

37. After the Gubernatorial Catastrophe, CALIFORNIA is Only a "Lean" At Best

Yes, I know what that means for our prospects, but look what their
iron control of the media and the voting machinez has enabled them
to do even here! They have installed Enron's lackey as Governor,
and you can guess how popular Enron is around here.

Bush*'s strategy has been entrirely successful. There is no such
thing as a safe Democratic state. We will have to spend tens of
millions in California alone to try to counter all the free media
that the Republicans get every day, and we have to win by enough
that they can't get away with Diebolding our votes.

Alas, the same is not true for Republican states. Nearly all
of them are held safely in the Bush* camp, by fair means or foul.
Florida is a lost cause for obvious reasons. We must accept
that and spend our resources in the Rust Belt where we might
have a chance of picking up some more states.

In any state where Diebold is counting the votes, we must win
by a landslide or we lose. The Georgia 2002 elections were
the beta test. The media happily spun away a 16-point shift
to the Republicans that can only be explained by blatant fraud.
Even optical scan offers no protection if they steal enough
votes to prevent any recount.

[dkamin]

45. WTF?

No, CA is not going Bush. Even Republicans in CA don't like Bush, because he's been poison for their economy.

The vote against Davis should be seen as what it was, a vote to change things dramatically, not a vote for Republicans. Arnold did not run as a Republican so much as he ran as a celebrity who was going to change things up (much like Mr. Burns), who happened to be married to a Kennedy (I think this had a HUGE impact). This anger at the status quo will transfer into a NO vote on Bush.

Also, remember that outside of a very small geographic area in Los Angeles, Californians LOVED Clinton. Dean would win Cal by over 10 points.

On the other hand, Missouri, I fear, is a lost cause. Even in St. Louis, which is one of the ostensibly liberal areas in MO, most people are solidly pro-Bush.

I think Arizona and New Mexico ought to go dem.

[Old and In the Way]

19. This map shows money donated to campaigns by states...

(countries/zipcodes, too). Might be interesting to see how this matches with your map.

http://www.fundrace.org/moneymap.php?cand=RepVDem&zoom=County

[Zomby Woof]

21. thanks!

I will peruse that now. Could be revealing!

[Toucano]

25. Oh, that's cool!

Thanks for sharing that site. That's a wonderful tool.

[liberalcapitalist]

20. Florida is the must-- and I can't see how it can be lost!

Why is everyone conceding Florida? Gore won it in 2000, and there's no way they can steal it twice in a row. They will mobilize Black voters in record numbers and win the state handily-- plus, we're not going to lose 97,000 voters to Nader. How can FL possibly go Repub?

States Dems will win:

Maine
Vermont
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
New York
Connetitcutt
Mass
Michigan
Iowa
Minnesota
Wisconscin
Oregon
Cali
Washington
Illionoise

And that's all we need.. But we NEED Florida!!

[Zomby Woof]

22. I appreciate your optimism

I won't write Florida off, I am just saying we also need an alternative no-FLA scenario, just in case! You can NOT be too careful with the Republican &#%@ when it comes to fairness and legality in the process.

[liberalcapitalist]

28. if we really have to consider foul play, then we might as well give up now

n/t

[Zomby Woof]

31. not at all

I think it is realistic to EXPECT or PREPARE for the worst by the GOP, but still work for an honest win. By no means should we abandon FLA, but by no means shall we take it for granted that it is the only way to go either. We need to encompass ALL means of winning fairly.

[Toucano]

23. I like to think about the 1992 election

Clinton won quite a few of the Southern states including AR, GA, and LA. He also took Nevada. In this map, blue is also "them".

I'm not suggesting it will be easy, but it happened to Poppy!

http://[e-mail]/pe1992.gif

[Zomby Woof]

24. very cool!

Although I am working on helping AZ go Dem!

[mrgorth]

29. FL, just say no

We can't win in FL. It's in the bag. Don't spend a fucking cent there. Work harder elsewhere.

[Zomby Woof]

33. where do you suggest?

You make it clear you want to write off FLA. What's your strategy for winning without it? I think the Dems must have one, and you seem to agree.

[frustrated_lefty]

34. Louisiana and Ohio

Spend your dollars there, that's where we win.

[mrgorth]

35. I'm mostly

looking at NH, WV, OH, AZ, NM and NV as winners. If we win in Fl, I'll kiss your arse.

[Zomby Woof]

36. how about PA?

I think it's worth the money, and the votes.

[mrgorth]

47. Since I live in PA

I agree. We need it. Luckily we have a dem gov. We have a shot here.

[TruthIsAll]

32. We are gonna rock the vote. Here's why:

Lean Dem:
FL, 97,000 greens, pissed off blacks in record vote. We will watch Jeb like a hawk.
TN, blacks will vote in record numbers
NV, nuclear wasteland
AZ, seniors bite
NM, seniors, hispanics
WV, dem state; removing steel tariffs hurt bush
AK, dem state
MO - harry truman turning over
LA - see 2002-2003 voting trend

Solid Dem:
IA, liberal, green
MN, progressive tradition, green
MI, unions, steel, muslims
WI, progressive tradition, green
CT, heavy dem
NJ, heavy dem
ME, solid dem, green
VT, solid dem, green
PA, solid dem, union

That's how I see it. But I'm an optimist.

[ArkDem]

40. Alaska is a dem state?

I don't think so.

[_NorCal_D_]

42. Nice assessment.

It's a rosy scenario but who knows what will happen in this race? :shrug:

I guess it's a matter of picking the right candidate. B-)

[Zomby Woof]

38. Monday Monday...

:kick:

[Jacobin]

39. With Dean or Clark, put Louisiana paint Louisiana BLUE

(these colors are reversed from the usual, are they not).

I'm here to tell you. With a Kerry or Hillary or other, paint it red again.

We just elected a Dem governor and we re-elected a Dem senator when the rest of the world was going repuke.

Smirky and his war are not popular here. Nor is his economy.

[gasperc]

41. PA, NM , Iowa and WV lean DEM

and we should fight for NV, AZ, AR and LA

[dkamin]

43. Apologies

if I'm repeating others,
but I also consider Nevada at least a tossup, possibly leaning Dem. Pennsylvania is definitely leaning Dem. Ohio is leaning Bush. Iowa should be leaning Dem. Florida is a tossup, but expect more hijinks in 04, so it should be considered Solid Bush. Also, W. Virginia should be a tossup.

I think Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and PA are the key states in 04. If the Dems win these states, they win the election. If they win 4 of these states, I think they win. If they win 3, it's anybody's call. If they win 2 or less, they lose.

[poskonig]

44. Well, Pennsylvania is a must win.

After that, the main battleground will be in Florida and Ohio, with sub-battles in Iowa, WV, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. (The GOP *will* contest Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.)

Our odds suck, but the clumsy Gore managed to beat them, even with Nader and the constant media attacks.