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18-Jul Killed:1 - Ran over "explosive device" in Fallujah (Hostile); 1 wounded: 4th ID
19-Jul Killed: 1 - 1st Armor Div: Shot in hostile fire incident while guarding bank in Baghdad 4 wounded: 1st Armored Division, Baghdad RPG attack
20-Jul Killed: 3 (2) - 101st Airborne: RPG convoy attack at Tel Afar (outside Mosul); (1) - vehicle rollover, Bahgdad Airport 1 wounded, Mosul attack; 2 wounded, Baghdad airport accident
21-Jul Killed: 1 - with Iraqi interpreter - blown up in Humvee, Baghdad (hostile fire) 22-Jul Killed: 1 - RPG Attack - Balad-Ramadi Road (Sunni Triangle) 1 wounded, same incident
23-Jul Killed:2 (1)-Mine attack - Mosul; (1) 3rd Armored Cavalry, Hostile Fire: Ramadi 6 wounded in Mosul mine attack; 2 wounded in Ramadi attack
Trending, uh, poorly already. Of course, the point is that the admin claims of a short-term spike is a low risk procedure. If things keep on as they are, or intensify, all that falls under the presumed spike. The term "long-term" is absolutely vacant, and if things worsen, they count on people either forgetting the putative benefits of the Hussein Brothers' Last Stand, or they put the blame on some other aggravating factor, or both.
The chilling part is that their prediction of a spike is actually their hedge against what they expect to be a significant escalation of attacks and a significant increase in US casualties. One to two a day will become three to five a day before the end of August.
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