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I was dead on in predicting a Davis recall by 55%-45% margin, though I was a little light on Schwarzenegger's margin.
So here we go:
KENTUCKY
Fletcher (R) 55% Chandler (D) 45%
The corruption from the Patton administration will fuel a "time for a change" calculus for many voters, swinging the bulk of the undecided to Fletcher. On the other hand, I like our chances for winning Fletcher's House seat, where national issues will likely play more prominently.
MISSISSIPPI
Barbour (R) 50% Musgrove (D) 49% Others 1%
This race will be close, and Barbour may come in under 50%, throwing the race to the House, which I think would give it to Barbour if he got more votes (still a lot of Dixiecrats there). Musgrove will need a good black turnout, but the last poll I saw had Barbour with 11% of black voters: a bit too high to enable Musgrove to win. That being the case, Musgrove will probably need 30% of the white vote, which could be a reach. This is a race that is certainly within the margin of error, so I could be, and I hope I am, wrong.
PHILADELPHIA
Street (D) 58% Katz (R) 40%
The FBI bugs at City Hall delivered a crippling blow to Katz. It associated him with the unpopular national Republican Party, which is a no-no in Philadelphia. A Republican win here would actually give them real bragging rights.
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