My own thoughts on this *booming* economy

[JohnnyRingo]

Last night when I went to bed the future looked dismal as usual with forcasts of plant closings, lackluster consumer confidence, and stagnant wages out of sync with inflation.

I awoke today in the land of OZ, with a newborn economic picture bathed in a technocolor wash thanks to increased hiring and consumer spending surpassing last year's record-setting holid....uhh... Christmas season.

What happened last night that I wasn't aware of earlier in the week?
Two days ago I caught this AP wire blurb:
"NEW YORK (AP) -- A private research group says consumer confidence soared in November, beating analysts' expectations."

Excuse me..."Private research Group"?

That would probably be The Conference Board, a research agency that surveys households, obviously for money.
Now it doesn't take a long memory to realize and connect the administration's obssesion and finesse with propaganda through media and this private agency. The wire release has been the source of countless news stories about a "rebounding economy".

Today, there's no mention of how the figures were obtained, but the White House is firmly on message and Blitzer is ecstatic.

As for the 200,000 jobs added
Tis the season...for seasonal hiring of temporary min-wage workers to stock the shelves with cheap chinese crap. 200,000 sounds about right.

The only thing missing is consumer confidence....and they're working on that right now on CNN and FOX.

If consumers buy into this ruse and max out credit cards again this year there will be a rude awakening in January when we realize we're back in Kansas and it was all just a dream.

[sirjohn]

1. Curious - is your own situation dismal, or are

you more concerned with the economy in general?

Unemployment is ~ 5%

170,000 jobs added as of this morning's jobs report.

[stanwyck]

3. well, you can skew the numbers

the way you want. But ask yourself, who really is doing better in this economy? Jobs added...well, they should be. Considering how many have been lost under the Bush administration.
The average American is losing ground. Haliburton, however, is doing great and the oil companies are reporting record profits.
Meanwhile, more and more Americans live without healthcare. The middle class, for the first time, is decreasing.
Our air travel resembles that of a third world country. Flights are quickly cancelled. More and more destinations have been dropped. Airlines disappear. Gas prices are bankrupting this industry and eating a larger portion of the average person's budget.
Oh, the CEOs are getting their windfall billion dollar bonuses. For failing miserably at their jobs.
So. Yes. The economy is booming for some people.
You need to look at the big picture. For the average American, this administration has been disastrous.

[sirjohn]

6. I know a lot of people and they seem to be doing Ok.

I'm no high-roller, just a retiree. It's not all doom and gloom. There were a lot of people out shopping the last few days. A lot of it is impressions - You may be living in a depressed area. Are you in the northeast or the rust belt?

[stanwyck]

10. well, yeah

people were out shopping. We always do the day after Thanksgiving. But look at the real details of people's lives. Healthcare. Gasoline costs. Home heating.
And it will be interesting to see how the final numbers play out on the holiday season.
Meanwhile, read what your fellow conservatives are saying about our current economy. (and the historically high -- and crippling -- deficit). You might be surprised to find that your own party has tough talk for the Bush administration on their horrific economic policy. (much on this in the Wall Street Journal this past week.)

[Media_Lies_Daily]

26. In which part of the Land of Oz are you currently living?? Wow!

[SammyWinstonJack]

53. maybe sirjohn is a retired CEO.

:shrug:

[JohnnyRingo]

48. Hey....good one

just a retiree. It's not all doom and gloom. There were a lot of people out shopping the last few days

I've got a joke too....
i'm a Delphi retiree, so I guess that means I'm just "between jobs"
Hahahahahahaha
You're too rich.
No...I mean really....Too rich

[leftofthedial]

54. yeah.

uh huh.

right.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. Unemployment is nowhere near 5%. Try 9 or 10%.

The unemployment survey is a crock of rose-colored shit.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. Are you buying that major fracking bullshit??? Incredible!! LOL!!

[cap]

33. 'cept that the replacement figure to keep up with population growth

is something like 250-300,000 jobs.

They are fooling around with the numbers. I work on Wall Street and the analysts think the numbers are crap... one guy only trusts corporate cash flow.

[converted_democrat]

63. You really believe the numbers the administration are touting?

I'd bet everything I own, that the actual number is twice that, if not more. They don't count people that are self employed that have lost their jobs, and they only count people that are getting an unemployment check. If your unemployment benefits run out, but you still have not found a job, too bad. You aren't counted anymore. Plus it does not count people that have lost their jobs, but are too embarrassed to go after an unemployment check. (I know many people like that.)


In our area things are getting really bad. My church is serving 3X's more people out of their food pantry than they were at this time last year. What used to be our community park is now where all the families that have lost their homes live in their cars. I used to live in a small town that had no homeless, now we have a whole park full.

My hubby and I have been very lucky, we have a business that caters specifically to high end home owners, so we do okay. Everyone around us though is being laid off, and begging for work. It really is a sad situation.

Oh and the 170,000 jobs you mentioned, it's seasonal help being hired for the holidays, that will most likely lose their jobs after the holidays....Wanna bet?

[screembloodymurder]

2. It's a joke.

70% of the jobs were in temporary construction and service positions. People are borrowing to spend (wonder who* gave them that idea)and that can't last. Our economy is about to go the GM route. GM's sales were up this summer when they discounted, but look at their sales for the last three months.

[sirjohn]

4. GM has an uncompetitive structure

I used to work in one of their shops.

Other US auto manufacturing plants are doing better.

[EVDebs]

9. Jobs in GM India are up 30% and what do shareholders think of all this

doom and gloom while management gets multimillion dollar salary/bonus packages ? Something is rotten in Denmark.

[samplegirl]

12. hows delphi doing

in Ohio?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

27. Let's see what you're saying after all of those "other US auto....

...manufacturing plants" are outsourced to a country with far cheaper labor rates. How many jobs will that affect?

[DemonFighterLives]

56. Dear Sir

The Ford Plant in St. Paul, MN has announced closure or at least possible ( I don't have all the facts).

This rose colored economy is a wreck. I'm still paying off any credit cards as fast as possible.

[hatrack]

68. The five Ford plants now facing shutdown are part of your analysis?

Or maybe not . . .

:eyes:

[Mutley]

5. Greenspan doesn't seem to think the economy is doing well...

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-12-02T201117Z_01_BAU250698_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-GREENSPAN-DC.XML

LONDON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan offered twin warnings at home and abroad on Friday about the urgency for the United States to tackle its huge budget deficits to preserve the global economy's health.

In a keynote speech in London ahead of his final appearance as a key participant in a Group of Seven finance ministers' gathering, Greenspan deplored a move toward unstable budgets and trade protectionism that could trigger a messy unwinding of world financial imbalances.

"If...the pernicious drift toward fiscal instability in the United States and elsewhere is not arrested and is compounded by a protectionist reversal of globalization, the adjustment process could be quite painful for the world economy," he told a conference.

The 79-year-old Greenspan, who steps down at the end of January, appeared intent on rounding out his 18-year tenure with a sharper call for discipline in government spending while time remains to get U.S. finances under control.

[EVDebs]

7. Deficit and debt ceiling issues are going to destroy the R's in '06, '08

Check out the two articles from the SF Chronicle last Sunday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2285905&mesg_id=2285905

[sirjohn]

8. You guys are depressing me so I'll just move on.

Work hard, live right, take care of your family, respect your neighbor - and the rest will work itself out.

Best wishes.

[EVDebs]

14. Indeed, bury your head back in the sand....and watch Fox Snooze

Research Dispels Bush Claims That Tax Cuts Create Jobs
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/1118-02.htm

and

Suicide by Free Trade
www.amconmag.com/2004/2004_04_12/buchanan.html

says this:

"Indeed, if the issue is jobs, Republicans ought to be thrown out. For not only are they not creating them, they have no idea how to stop exporting them. In their hearts, some of them think it a good thing. They are like the doctors of old who sincerely believed bleeding the patient was the way to get rid of the disease because that is what their textbooks and wise men told them" -- Pat Buchanan

Also, any articles by Republican Paul Craig Roberts who views Bush's economic programs are foolish, for example:

Still No Jobs: Corporations Deserting American Workers
http://www.vdare.com/roberts/051106_no_jobs.htm

[pretzel4gore]

17. does truth depress you, sir john?

i don't know if the economy is doing ok or not, and don't really care. what i do know is that a unelected fraud has been crowned king of america, and he has created such hatred between the otherwise friendly rival of dems/repubs that there will, almost certainly, someday be bloodshed...i know that a temporary government agency called the 'plunge protection team' was reactivated after sept 11th, and no one knows what the ppt has done to make bush look good (bush supposedly won the '04 election, and if the stock market was 5 k or so, then he'd be gone, so the ppt has spent untold billions to keep markets up, way up; even news of 38000 layoffs at GM added 50 points to the dow!)...there's also one other thing i know: when the busheviks are gone, the truth about what's REALLY going on in all sorts of areas will come home, like the proverbial chickens...and it will be very very bad....this isn't depressing so much as it's creepy, because while the pigmedia lies relentlessly, the problems they pretend aren't that bad fester in secret, and when the democrats regain control the shit will hit, and the lying liars will all have run off with their retirement funds, and their well earned paranoia.

[EVDebs]

20. Bush had lots of Indian and Chinese support during the election and now

The DOL actively promotes hiring of H1B visaholders, see

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1878508

and check this out

Nation's immigrants account for bulk of labor force growth since 2000
Native-born workers eclipsed by great wave of immigration
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-01/nu-nia010804.php

DOL is basically an employment department for the India and Chinese elites.

[sirjohn]

21. Nope. Truth doesn't depress me at all.

It's what I live for. Good day.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

28. You won't find the truth where you're going.

[sirjohn]

29. Are you sure? Every day I discover something new.

[pretzel4gore]

30. don't act like a frigging goof here....why bother?

simple fact is, im old and tired etc, and really don't spend much time worrying about myself- but most human beings are younger then i, and considering the rube goldbergian success of the bush gangsters and their allies, most people might be a little too innocent for the type of cheap thugs that walk the halls of power. What they affect includes all of 'gods' creation, including kittens and baby whales and hyena puppies- who also 'live truth' as you say, yet who will suffer terribly unless something isn't done to stop the for example, 20 billion tonnes/year carbon put into the atmosphere...i have a responsibliity to 'god's' creation to at least honour it by thinking of it, and consider the put upon air of cool you exhibit contemptuous of 'god's creation' even if you don't believe in god...
why even post here if you're so chill to benign neglect?

[sirjohn]

32. I'm not sure I understand you. I have absolutely

No contempt for God's creation (your words), or even his people (joke).

I just don't think that arguing and complaining solves much, other than wearing people down to a point where they might try to find common ground.

[EVDebs]

34. Common ground ! Now that's a hoot ! All the moderate/liberal R's

were run out of the party long ago. And if your here to impersonate a moderate or liberal "R" or have been referred by Free Republic, you may just as well go there for more comparable points of view...

[sirjohn]

38. Subject: The guy I was talking to actually used the

...word "bloodshead" (pretzel4gore - post #17). I'd say finding some common ground would be preferable. How about you?

Actualy, I'm starting to lose interest in politics, although for a long time I was just as obsessed by it as many people are. What's more interesting to me is conversation - not for the sake of conversation - but to understand how people think and see things. None of us is going to be here forever. Sometime before it's over I'd like to have some understanding - rather than a continuous hot polemic until the lights suddenly go out.

[EVDebs]

52. Rolling over and playing dead isn't an option. Disaparacidos

came about in Chile and Argentina with US funding/assistance and media complicity (no news is good news !).

They called US traitors, remember that sirjohn. When Chalabi was busy giving his info to the Iranians. Exactly whose benefit is the war in Iraq for anyway ? The US taxpayer funding a war that will eventually end up creating another Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq ? or was it just 'blood for oil' all along and any old excuse will do ?

When we demanded truth we got skewered and slandered.

My blood is running hot now that you got me started. I'll cool down a little when I hear less of O'Lielly, Fox, Limballs, and the whole neocon crowd start dishing out the apologies ! Until then ... to the baricades.

"A Coward Dies A Thousand Deaths, But A Brave Man Dies Only One"
DUers intend on only once and not at the hands of some freeper who knows not what he's doing in the first place.

[sirjohn]

58. Enjoy your rage if that's what ...

...interests you. But as you work yourself up, remember it's your experience, not mine. Ask yourself when it's over whether it made you happy. Best of luck.

[EVDebs]

61. "Am I my brother's keeper ?" .... sirjohn just went back to his gated

community.

[sirjohn]

62. You object that I won't try to save you from yourself

while you try to drag me down?

[EVDebs]

65. No, that you won't save me from Bush/Cheney & Co.

Only Jesus can do the "heavy lifting" and in fact I'm already born again. BTW, you might be interested in reading Forcing God's Hand by Grace Halsell (a former LBJ speechwriter, now deceased), or even End Time Delusions by Steve Wohlford.

I try to maintain the Norman Vincent Peale optimistic outlook but, when confronted with the actions of an administration that can only be described as the worst I've ever seen (my AARP membership is showing) I have to speak out. When Pollyanna (aka sirjohn) comes to DU and presents disinformation, I think I, like Geo. Washington in his time, have the right to challenge someone who is trying to be helpful in 'trying to save me from myself', thank you very much.

A better place for your opinions may be freerepublic.com where persons of like mind can mindmeld. Pollyanna is defined as
"a person regarded as being foolishly or blindly optimistic."

Your thoughts that this economy is booming somehow was why you initially responded to this thread. I seem to think that maybe Bush & Co are using the same 'catapulting the propaganda' domestically as they are in Iraq. Maybe the military should take over that effort too ! Or maybe they already have...

[sirjohn]

66. "Only Jesus can do the heavy lifting."

We agree on that, then. Have a great day.

[B Calm]

11. I was told today by my non union employer that my fellow

co workers and I just took a wage concession of 50 cents an hour..

[orwell]

13. In Some Respects...

...you should disabuse yourself of the term "the economy", even though we all use it. Just about all economic statistics are painted in very misleading aggregates. It is unclear what the "inflation rate" is or the "unemployment rate." All I know is that grocery bills, energy bills, and housing prices are rising at an alarming rate. If you are unemployed, the unemployment rate is 100%

Engineering it all are the Crony Kings at the Federal Reserve - the modern day version of the Politburo, disguising central planning under the rubric of capitalism. Without the prop of "cheap money" and engineered inflation, the US would descend into a rather nasty debt implosion very similar to the 10 years of hell the Japanese have just endured. Bear in mind that the US is in far worse structural shape than Japan when it entered into its "period of adjustment."

So is "the economy" good or bad. It depends at what height you view it from. From the hilltops, I'll bet it looks mighty good indeed.

Keep an eye on gold and silver prices...something is up.

[stanwyck]

16. good analysis, Orwell

better perspective than the fun with numbers we get every day.

[orwell]

39. Thanks...

Everybody plays with statistics to butress their preconceived worldview. But aggregates can be very misleading in and of themselves. For example, if Bill Gates walks in a bar, the average annual income of persons in said bar may suddenly jump from 25K to 750 million.

Such an event wouldn't put a dime in anyone's pocket however...unless Bill bought a few rounds for the house... ;)

Cheers!

[EVDebs]

18. I've heard that a draft is inevitable after mid 2006 'staying the course'

So lots of 20 yr olds and medical professionals will be sent over to Iraq...

[orwell]

40. Who knows?

The draft would be catastrophic politically for the R's so they will probably avoid it at all costs. But, they haven't been known for their "rationality" as far as Iraq so far...

[adriennui]

60. that's terrific!!!!

those are the 21st century jobs the repubs and dems were saying the unemployed should train for.....just wait and see, the unemployment rates will plummet as soon as our young people become the employees of the new iraqi government.

just look at all those new jobs in the surface sector. there are many openings for human targets as well.

[Strelnikov_]

23. Whats Wrong? Didn't You See The News About The Chocolate Ration?

Or how well the war is going with EastAsia? Or was it EurAsia?

Oops, I'm in trouble now.

Like you said:

[EVDebs]

35. Iraqification ...while Pentagon has plans for 14 enduring bases incountry

Bush talking out of both ends of his bod.

Long term presence planned
http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2004/040323-enduring-bases.htm

What Bush DIDN'T tell us the other night, or those bright shiny faced K-DETS.

I guess they didn't tell them they're not to tolerate anyone who lies, cheats, or steals...unless he's their Commander-In-Chief or until they graduate, whichever comes first to Annapolis.

[orwell]

41. LOL

Thanks for the laugh...and the chart.

Nice uptrend...looks a bit overbought however. :)

[Jose Diablo]

67. One thing about gold, it don't lie

With gold topping out at $503 on friday, in spite of all the rosy statistics about how really wonderful everything is, shows that all is not well in Mudville. There is no shortage on the supply of gold, it is the increased demand from those pesky Asians trading their hard earned paper dollars for shiny metal. I would say there are many here in the colonies that also do not agree with the view of Camelot portrayed by the spin masters.

When things go splat, then investments go to gold. It's always been that way, always will be that way.

When currency turns to just paper iou's, then the King of money shows the ignorant who is really god in the financial markets. Then the con artist bankers that pulled a fast one with the value of money do all they can to slip out of town, just like Greenspin is doing.

Gold just don't lie, hold it in your hand then you will know. There is nothing so soothing as a 10 kilo bar of gold in your hand when the paper money becomes useful for heating.

And for all of you out there that like the paper, well just stick around, a lesson is about to be shown about the difference between money and value.

[The_Casual_Observer]

19. This booming economy is kind of like the depression.

The wealthy stay wealthy, the news is full of stories about rich movie stars, everybody else is working their ass off just to survive.

[raccoon]

69. Great post! nt

[Strelnikov_]

24. Happytalk To Keep The Proles Buying Through The 'Christmas' Season

Like Christ would really want his name connected with an orgy of consumerism and greed.

[Hubert Flottz]

25. Elves!

Lots of Elves get jobs this time of year!

[Deja Q]

31. Check out this laugh of an abc news article...

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=1366292

[EVDebs]

37. "Thereafter ABC was referred to as "The CIA network."

I guess they're just doing their part in the 'catapulting of propaganda' !

quote from
CIA, Drugs, and Wall Street
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/economy/dontblink.html

after Peter Jennings got too interested in a company project and Wm. Casey had bought the firm.

[Justice Is Comin]

36. Wow, let's hurry and pay off that

200 billion we owe Japan and that 170 billion we owe China and that 69 billion we owe Korea right quick, as long as the economy is doing so well.

[orwell]

42. Close to 8 Trillion

And with an average maturity of 3 years. That's a lot of short to intermediate term debt.

Happy days are here again!

[pretzel4gore]

51. 10 percent of 8 trillion is what?

mygod, the debt burden too much! the usa will have to conquer the entire world! so that was the bushevik idea: get the usa in so deep, they have no choice but to swim to nearest and only lifeboat the
W-USS TITANIC!
glub glub america!
meanwhile where were the grown ups? fukking! and the elders? fukking the grandkids? and the youngsters? fukking weach other...and the christians? teaching rabbits how to fukk...
(excuse my angloo)
btw, at end of Carter US nat debt only 1 trillion-fought won 2 world wars, put men on the moon and built the country for that!

[orwell]

57. Even at 5%

...the debt service on 8 trillion would be 400 million. That is about 1/6 to 1/7 of our entire yearly federal outlays. In other words, we pay that each year for what we have already overspent, without paying down the debt at all.

Welcome to the wacky world of the US deficit.

[SmokingJacket]

43. I'm unemployed, and have never been officially counted.

I left my job to have a kid, never went back. Now that I *want* to go back, I can't: no one is hiring in my field.

There are many like me who never appear in any unemployment figures.

[NewJeffCT]

44. Some perspective on the jobs numbers

While 215,000 jobs created in one month is an okay number, and great compared to normal under the Bush economy, the fact of the matter is that would be a BELOW average month under Clinton - his entire 8 year tenure averaged more jobs created per month than that.

[NewJeffCT]

45. The economy is booming - if -

1) You are a major shareholder of a large corporation. Corporations are returning profits at a level not seen since the Roaring 20s.

2) Or, you are the CEO of one of those major corporations. Your salary increased WAY faster than that of your rank & file employees.

[Vinca]

46. My impression is that the economy is better for those who don't

have many worries anyway . . . a few bucks here or there doesn't make much of a difference. Of course hiring is up. How many thousands of Katrina refugees relocated and found jobs? (Want fries with that?) Same for construction. The real measure, or so the talking heads imply, is the stock market. Great. If I had a huge portfolio of stocks I'd be happy. I don't and a good half of the country is with me. We're trying to pay the heating oil bill and sock a few dollars away in case of an emergency since we can't afford health insurance. In case you're ready to say, "but the GDP," forget it. There is a certain amount of money coming in and an increasing amount of money going out. That's what matters to average people and it's why Shrub isn't getting a bounce for his (borrowed) economic boom.

[chat_noir]

47. like these well-paying retail jobs?

:sarcasm:




or these?

The Labor Department said November goods-producing employment rose by 50,000 jobs.

The manufacturing sector increased payrolls by 11,000 jobs, after adding 15,000 in October.

The construction sector added 37,000 jobs last month. "Some of the recent job gains in construction reflect rebuilding and cleanup efforts following Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma," Utgoff said.

Service-providing employment went up by 165,000. Retail jobs rose by 9,000.

Growth resumed in food services and drinking places, with jobs up by 39,000.

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/DJStory.aspx?DJStoryID=20051202DN006243

[JohnnyRingo]

49. Yep...50,000 union manufacturing jobs go overseas

Replaced by cashiers at the Dollar General.

A republican wet dream is when an employer can tell you:
"....and you're lucky to have this job, there's a college grad waiting right outside to take your place."

[stevietheman]

50. Long-term unemployment rate high

http://epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_20050518

"The unemployment rate and long-term unemployment (i.e., the share of those unemployed for more than six months) have historically run fairly parallel courses. As the unemployment rate increased or decreased, so did the share of long-term unemployment, usually with a short lag in time.

This trend was consistent from 1948 through the 1980s. The last two downturns, however, have seen a different picture emerge—the divergence of these two series. The 2001 recession and recovery have had relatively low unemployment rates, but the long-term share has been more than 20% for an unprecedented 31 consecutive months (from October 2002 to April 2005)."

[Mr_Spock]

55. They just shipped 14 of 19 engineering jobs in my office to China Wed.

Merry fucking Christmas and a booming economy (in China) too. :(

Motherfuckers.

[Lorien]

59. I can always gage the true health of the economy by the performance of

my main client; a major film studio that has produced popular toys and collectibles-mostly sold to the middle class-for sixty some years. We were booming during the Clinton era, but it's been a long steady slide downward since * took office. Now sales are so bad that many departments are closing. I'm saving as much as I can these days because the future looks rather dark indeed. :-(

[stepnw1f]

64. Its a Good Thing My Company Sells to Dollar Stores

The future is looking graver by the day.