When We Stand Up An Iraqi Army, Do We Start Calling It A Civil War?

[DistressedAmerican]

Right now, we do the bulk of the the fighting and dying for the Shia side of the conflict. If this mythical day was to come to pass where they "stood up" and we "stood down" that is the day that the Shia start fighting for themselves. By definition that is a civil war. The civil war is inevitable unless we destroy the insurgency before leaving and that will not happen as we are creating just as many insurgents as we are killing (By the pentagon's own estimates).

Given that, let's have enough of this bullshit from the right about how a withdrawal could lead to all out civil war. It is nonsense. All you can do is delay the inevitable with Billions of dollars and untold American lives.

So let's just bite the bullet. What are we waiting for? Does anyone really think that we are going to restore order to Iraq? Order will not be restored until they fight it out and someone wins.

DA

[RaleighNCDUer]

1. You got it.

Just like Vietnam. Communists were poised to sweep away the corrupt S. Vietnamese government in the elections so the elections were cancelled. We were afraid that the communists would take over, purge the S Vietnamese government, and send the capitalists to re-education camps.

So we fought for ten years, lost 50,000 US lives, upwards of 2 million Vietnamese lives, then the communists took over, purged the S Vietnamese government, and sent the capitalists to re-education camps.

Same end result, just with the difference of a couple million lives. It is a credit to the Vietnamese people that they don't hold undying hatred for everything American today.

The difference with Iraq? Long memories. They still hold grudges over religious arguments from 1100 years ago. The Crusades of 900 years ago are a fresh wound. They will never forgive us if we put them through what we put Vietnam through.

[enigma000]

2. So if the US pulls out now

and civil war escalates, will the Iraqis have a better opinion of Americans than right now?

The US is not stopping a civil war. The Shia are - their leadership both religious and political are preaching against retaliation.

Hopefully the Sunni participate in next month's elections and then form part of the government. This could undercut support for the insurgents.

[DistressedAmerican]

3. The Shia Have Been Told To Sit Tight And Let Us Do The Work.

The Shia will only hold off as long as we remain. As long as we remain we are under attack so that the Shia will not enter the war.

You assert that there will be escalation if we leave. I do not know if that is true or not. But, how many casualties should we take to keep the war at a low level of direct contact between the groups on the ground?

The political process is pure show. The Sunnis are not in favor of the current situation. The insurgency continues to grow despite the other election and referendums. What makes you think the insurgents are getting ready to play ball with the US backed government all of the sudden? What do you think has really changed?

[enigma000]

5. What has changed?

I think the more savvier Sunni have realized, as you so succinctly put it: "As long as we remain we are under attack so that the Shia will not enter the war. " They also should know that as the Iraqi government troops (and Kurdish and Shia militia) take over the fight, the battles will get much more......unpleasent.

Some insurgent groups are talking to the government

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/VBOL-6JDGQ3?OpenDocument

Many of the Sunni may feel it is time to give the ballot box a chance. If not, I fear your summation that this will end only after one side wins in battle.

Where does that leave the coalition? Hopefully a gradual withdrawal can start in the new year. Either way, it will soon be up to the Iraqis themselves.

[izzie]

4. Sounds like a they are in the middle of one now.

????????????

[kliljedahl]

6. They're in one now

Our leaving wouldn't change anything.

[DistressedAmerican]

7. We Just Do Not Want To Admit It!