HURRICANE ISABEL: The official DU thread ver.2 AKA "DUCK & COVER"

[ShaneGR]

Since the other thread has reached around 120 posts I've decided to start a new thread. As of Monday afternoon the storm has weakened to a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 140mph. It has begun a slight turn to the Northwest and is predicted to make landfall on the coast of North Carolina. This storm is in one word, HUGE. If the projected path holds true we will have substantial wind damage up the coast of North Carolina, into Virginia, and possibly even Baltimore. Rainfall will be tremendous and flooding will also be substantial.

Here's an article from MSNBC:

http://msnbc.com/news/961894.asp?0cv=CB10

(snip)
Hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph extended 115 miles out from the center. Isabel was moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 mph.

In Washington, city emergency officials were working on acquiring additional sandbags, and they planned to meet with leaders of other departments and critical services Monday.
“Then we’re going to pray,” said Peter LaPorte, director of the city’s Emergency Management Agency.

NOTE: All but the first image are dynamic and will update automatically as the storm progresses.

[Rowdyboy]

1. Thanks for the update...

Graphics are spectacular. My heart gfoes out to DU'ers on the east coast, particularly in the Baltimore area (I understand the worst of the storm is likely to hit in that area.

[qanda]

5. Where did you get the information about Baltimore?

I live close to Bmore and they are not saying anything about it affecting us in a major way. They say that there will be rain and wind, but nothing too bad. I really don't know what to believe anymore. I did prepare for the worst, as far as supplies, but that's only because of earlier projections and now I've been feeling kind of like I can relax because of the way our local forecasters are presenting it to us. I'm rambling, but it's because I'm confused-- please help me!

[demnan]

10. Baltimore

will still feel some affects - heavy winds and rain are likely. The course projection of the storm shifted slightly to the West this morning so the bullseye is closer to us here in the D.C. area.

This is a huge storm so regardless of the tract I believe the East Coast is in for some rough weather.

I'm going out and buying a hurricane lamp. I've always wanted one, I think this is as good an excuse as any to get one.

[knight_of_the_star]

21. Its certain to be DC?

As I said in the first thread on this topic, that HAS to be a sign.

On a less mystical note, even though Isabel seems to have dropped to a cat 4 and taking into account what others on this thread have mentioned about her increasing in strength when she hits the Gulf Stream, a cat 4 hitting DC is still going to cause some incredible amounts of damage. I wonder how Bush is going to weasel out of being in DC when the storm makes landfall.

[veganwitch]

25. bring it on!!

im looking forward to it. im going to hide in the bathroom with my kitties if i need to but i love storms so im excited. i must bring in my plants and chairs off my balcony.

[Woodstock]

68. DC is only 30 miles away

Will the difference from what we will experience in Baltimore be that much? But by all means, I think we should defer the pleasures of Isobel to our "superior" southern neighbor.

[Rowdyboy]

27. Sorry...

I can't find the site where I read that information. No one really knows yet, anyway. I just really hope all you east coasters from Florida to Maine and north stay safe. Having survived Camille in 1969, I'm well aware of just how horrific experience it can be.

[ewagner]

54. Wow, you were in Camille?

I was in Biloxi in March of 70 and saw the damage.

I don't know how people surviced that!

[Junkdrawer]

20. Posted at wrong spot n/t

[Cheswick2.0]

2. Isabel has weakened somewhat

but as soon as she spends a bit more time over the warm gulf stream waters, she may strengthen.
The next 12 hours will be interesting.

[goobergunch]

3. At least it's not affecting me as badly...

here's the official NHC forecast track (#37). Unfortunately it is NOT dynamic.

[Armstead]

4. What do those friking yellow lines mean?

In the top map, the ones going off to the side. One goes right over my House. I don't like that.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. range of possible storm track of eye

there's a small, outside chance Isabel will pass right over your house.

[ShaneGR]

7. Those are the edges of the predicted pathline

So the middle line is what they are predicting the storm to do. The yellow lines on the right or left are ALSO possible headings for the storm. In other words, while they are saying the storm is going to hit North Carolina, they are also saying it MIGHT make landfall as far South as the SC-NC border or as far North as NYC.

[Renew Deal]

8. The Eye

could pass directly over that area. It sets the strike range. :nuke:

[Raven]

11. Yeah. It's going right over my house too!

:eyes:

[Raven]

9. You have been really good to do all of this Sgr2!

It is really great information! I've been watching some of the charts and wonder if this monster is taking a slight turn toward New England. Just inching it's way more north than west? Does nayone else see this or is it just my paranoia!

[demnan]

13. It's your paranoia

vs. my paranoia. No it will pass through D.C. bringing up water from the Chesapeake to cover the entire D.C. area. Ok, so I'm exaggerating, a little. ;-)

[Raven]

17. I bet my paranoia can beat your paranoia!

Any day! :-) I hope we are both wrong.

[ShaneGR]

15. Well, I think you MAY be ok

It was expected to turn to the North. Fortunately for you, it started its turn a little later than was expected. Yesterday they were calling for landfall about 75 miles farther north. Since it moved due west longer than they predicted it is now on pace to run straight up the North Carolina coastline.

[knight_of_the_star]

31. I hope that doesn't happen

My gf lives in Massachusettes! Anyone want to start taking bets on if it does a sudden turn towards Crawford, Texas? That would be a nice twist if it heads there just in time for Bush to evacuate to his ranch.

[ant]

12. nice

“Then we’re going to pray,” said Peter LaPorte, director of the city’s Emergency Management Agency.

I guess this explains how it is that 2 inches of snow always manages to shut this damn city down.

[demnan]

14. Yeah,

that didn't sound too reassuring to a secular minded person like myself.

[bearfartinthewoods]

16. i called the guy that hauls my boat and wed AM is the earliest we can

pull her out. not a big deal, season is about over but any day on the water is better than a day on land.

[alfredo]

18. Mac users, you can get real time images

using solscape. It is free. It has a lot of other images of the sun, moon, and aurora.
http://www.stimpsoft.com/products/solscape.html
He has stopped developing it, but the version presented works well.

Look at the bottom of the page for downloads.

[Cheswick2.0]

19. Look at the pictures, the eye is reorganizing already

these pics were different an hour ago.

[Raven]

23. Is that good or bad?

:-(

[Cheswick2.0]

26. bad

when a hurricane breaks up and the eye disapears that means it is losing strength and becoming disorganized. For a few hours the eyes of this storm had broken up and you couldn't see it. Now that tiny pin hole is reforming which mean Isabel is getting stronger and will last longer. By the time it passes the warm gulf stream (warm water feeds the strength of a hurricane)it will be almost on land. In fact the outer bands may hit land while the eye is still over the warm waters.

[ShaneGR]

52. The eye will be 80 miles away when hurricane

stength winds touch the outerbanks.

[ant]

24. could you explain more?

I can't seem to find older pictures, and I wouldn't know what to make of them even if I did.

Thanks.

[Junkdrawer]

22. I think it's blowing itself out....

You heard it here first...

I've been watching the satellite since 11:00 AM and it seemed to entrain a lot of dry air. Hurricane hunters only found 95 Kt winds (108 mph?). Pressure up to 950 mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 151713
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1713Z
B. 25 DEG 17 MIN N
69 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2656 M
D. 65 KT
E. 230 DEG 058 NM
F. 323 DEG 95 KT
G. 233 DEG 036 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 14 C/ 3074 M
J. 15 C/ 3082 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/60/50
N. 12345/7
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF985 1113A ISABEL OB 08
MAX FL WIND 95 KT SW QUAD 1702Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 240/018NM FROM
FL CNTR


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?


I think that makes it a Cat 2. Let's see what the NHC (National Hurricane Center) says at 5 PM.

[Don_G]

29. Here's The Air Force Flight Schedule

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/wxdisc13.txt

Still a Cat 4; the water temperature off the coast, the jet stream and the high sitting off the east coast are the determining factors on which way it moves and the strength of Isabel at landfall right now.

[Don_G]

32. NOAA 3-Day Probability Chart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303P+GIF/151738P.gif

[Clark Can WIN]

28. I was in Raleigh for Fran

And it SUCKED. Glad to be landlocked in Nebraska for this one.

Hurricane tips from experience (unfortunately)

Fill your bathtubs with water for using to wash dishes and flush tiolets

Baby wipes are excellent to refresh and clean when you cannot shower

Stock food that does not have to be refrigerated or heated.

Make sure your cell phone is charged in case your land line goes down.

Fill your gas tanks and get some cash on hand, enough to cover you for several days.

Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone facing this storm.

[ant]

30. on the other hand....

...I was in Miami for Andrew, and if you stock up on enough booze you won't care about any of the other shit. ;)

[Woodstock]

69. I'm old enough to remember Agnes in Baltimore

the flooding along the Pataspco tore up roads like they were nothing. It rained nonstop - I thought it would never end! Pretty sure we stayed home from school, too.

[leftchick]

33. I was in Raleigh too for Fran! It SUCKED bigtime!

I had a 15 month old and just pregnant with number two. Hubby out of state, did not even know about it till two days later. I was the only one on my block without a phone. Had to wait in line for hours for water and ice. We lost 26 BIG oak trees, thank God none hit the house or car. I just remember listening to that wind for hours with limbs hitting the house all night long. I am now in Greensboro and hopefully out of range of this baby....

[KoKo]

34. Leftchick, Raleigh here...I'm thinking of heading your way....Raleigh did

Suck for Fran, and the Snow Storm and the Ice Storm UGH!!!!!

[comsymp]

37. Another good point- PARKING!!!

My MIL's car was totaled during Fran. Hers was the only car they didn't move to a local vacant parking lot so naturally it got creamed by one of the *many* trees that came down.

Oh, and we lived in Ral during Fran too- it was really something, wasn't it? You had a lotta trees in your yard- what part of town? I lived over by Shelly Lake at the time in a wooded apartment complex- will never forget the eerie sound of the wind thru all those trees!

And, coincidentally, we're now in Asheboro... neighbors again.

[leftchick]

43. we lived in North Raleigh

just off of Falls of the Neuse (weird name! :crazy:) very close to the new Wake development near Litchfield Road. We had an acre lot, very heavily wooded till Fran!
Hi Neighbor! :hi:

[KoKo]

46. Left Chick....you were my neighbor! Too funny!

I am near Falls of Neuse and Harps Mill........ I have totally crummy neighbors....how were yours during Fran?

[KoKo]

48. CNN Reporting Navy Ships leaving Norfolk Va. to head out to sea.

People in Norfolk are stocking up on supplies to be prepared.

[bearfartinthewoods]

57. make sure you have a hand crank can opener on hand

no electricity = no electric can opener. hand crankers were a premium after Andrew.

[goobergunch]

35. 5 PM EDT 9/15 UPDATE...NOW A CAT 3...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 152036
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 15 2003

...POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
 
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 470 MILES...755 KM EAST OF NASSAU.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
AND THESE COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.6 N... 70.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/152036.shtml?

[goobergunch]

36. It looks like landfall will be near Cape Hatteras

then moving inland through NC and VA, the WV panhandle, and the Pittsburgh area (as a TS by Pittsburgh).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/152035.shtml?

*breathes sigh of relief*

[Don_G]

38. Expected To Strengthen And Reorganize

As it passes over the warm gulf stream, gaining energy and hit near the area of Cape Hatteras as a Cat 3 minimum as of now. Still bears close watching.

[ShaneGR]

51. Yeah

At least 125mph at this point. It still might hit a little farther south, depending on any further moverment to the west when it reorganizes.

[carolinayellowdog]

39. Evacuation timing (from Hampton Roads area)

Hey,

My mother lives alone in Chesapeake, adjacent to Virginia Beach. I have one house 120 miles inland and another 200 miles inland. At this point the storm track might go directly over any of those three spots making evacation to one of the others advisable. I'm afraid that if it's not known until Wednesday AM that the storm will hit Hampton Roads on Thursday, 1.5 million evacuees will end up stranded in the world's biggest traffic jam later on Wednesday. Yet, if she leaves tomorrow without knowing the storm direction, coming to my house could be heading right into harm's way.

How would you advise timing the decision re evacuation?

CYD

[Don_G]

41. Wednesday Morning At The Latest

Keep watching. Weather is a matter of probabilities and predictions than an exact science I'm afraid.

[comsymp]

42. Something to consider

Odds are that the Chesapeake house is the worst bet because even if the storm tracks west of her she'll STILL have the worst of the storm's winds (NE quadrant) to contend with.

I'd go for the one that's 200 mi inland just for the weakening potential. And as for timing, you're absolutely right about the evacuation traffic nightmare so tomorrow morning sounds pretty good, don'tcha think?

[ShaneGR]

50. I would advise you to leave late Tuesday night.................. SERIOUS

If you are still in the area of presumed landfall Tuesday afternoon then you should leave Tuesday night or early Wednesday Morning (4-8 AM). By Tuesday afternoon the Thursday landfall should be more definite.

But I cannot stress enough. If you are close to the coast and the eye of the storm is going to be within 50 miles of you then get the hell out of there. The storm surge and flooding will be deadly enough without the wind speed.

[ringmastery]

40. strengthening

The last couple hours showed the eyewall become much more symmetrical with lots more reds along the west side which was barren before. I think it's regenerating.

[Cheswick2.0]

44. yes I think you are right

and that is to be expected. The pics at the top of this thread are dynamic, they will change as the web site pics change. So if we keep the thread kicked we can watch Isabel change.

[Cheswick2.0]

45. kick

.

[Bush_has_Parvo]

47. Lots of warm water for it to feed on

as it moves in closer. Boy, this is going to be a massive storm.

[ShaneGR]

49. UPDATE- VIDEO OF PREDICTION

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstory/video.html?from=news

Good video....

The storm has run into a trough of air and weakened to category 3 (only 125mph GASP) but is expected to remain at least that strength. The next 24 hours will tell the story.

[Kool Kitty]

53. Here's what's going on in coastal central New Jersey.

This is, not surprisingly, the lead story on every newscast this evening. Sea Bright (in Monmouth County-central NJ) is having a boro meeting this afternoon (Tuesday) to decide whether to evacuate. We may not get the full hit here, but the water is up-WAAAAYYYYYYY UP. Poor Bound Brook! Someone posted about this area last night on the first thread about how badly Bound Brook flooded during Floyd in '99. Well, the mayor and the emergency services head were on TV tonight because they are going to have big problems again. The reservoir is full, the river is almost at flood stage tonight because we have had lots of rain tonight. (If you were watching the Monday Night football game you saw the rain, the game was played at the Meadowlands. It was pouring.) The news showed the main streets in Bound Brook, and there was about a foot of water in the streets tonight just from the current rainstorm.
The shore communities are very worried. Manasquan public works department had the bulldozers out on the beach, piling up the sand to try to keep the water away. But as they were talking to the newscaster, the waves were eating away the sand berm. The boardwalks are full of people that want to see the angry ocean, and the storm is still a couple of days away.
The bayshore communities are putting all their police and emergency workers on alert and calling them in on Wednesday, so they are all in place in case the worst happens. There's been a lot of rain this summer and there's not a lot of room for the water to run off, so flooding is going to be a big problem no matter where this storm goes.
I guess it's too late to hope that it will blow out to sea, huh?

[amish_enforcer]

58. Bound Brook

As an Ex-resident, I too feel bad for the town, it was slammed then and it doesn't look too good at all this time around. I had relatives that lived 1 block off of main street in 99 (east second st) and they lost nearly everything. The downtown was under about 8-10' of water if I remember correctly (I had helped contruct the "we will rebuild" headquarters downtown) and many long time buisnesses there either left or were outright destroyed.

Manville is in the same boat, the adequately named "Lost Valley" section was completely submerged in 99

My thoughts go there..

[soleft]

59. I know Seabright and Manasquan, where's Bound Brook Kool Kitty?

[althecat]

55. Latest NOAA GFS Model Graphics...

More here...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0309/S00142.htm

[molly]

56. Wilmington, DE Update

Flash Floods Soak Region

http://www.delawareonline.com/newsjournal/local/2003/09/16flashfloodssoak.html

Evacuation orders may begin today in Del

snip...

Delaware has never taken a direct hit from a hurricane, but the forecast for Isabel worries state emergency planners.

"Because of the fact that we don't deal with this every three or four years, there is a concern that people aren't going to take this seriously," said Rosanne Pack, spokeswoman for the Delaware Emergency Management Agency. "In all likelihood, we're going to get a major weather event here."

http://www.delawareonline.com/newsjournal/local/2003/09/16evacuationorder.html

[JHB]

60. kick

it's not over yet

[Junkdrawer]

61. 11 AM Tuesday - Cat 2 (105 MPH)

I think this reflects last night's and the early morning drops...but it looks like the worst of the shear/dry air entraining is over. I'll bet we're back to Cat 3 by 5 PM.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

62. but pressure is still rising.

how do you figure? I see a cyclone which is rapidly spending its energy and being pushed off the coast by the cold front/high pressure from the continent. And the winds are drying it out.

[Junkdrawer]

64. Earlier this morning the entire west side of the storm was exposed...

now I see the central dense wrapping back around and a more symetrical storm reforming.

[FireHeart]

73. Maybe...

Max sustained winds have increased to about 110mph. It does look as if some strengthening could occur--at least temporarily--over the next 24 hours. These things are notorious for their unpredictability when it comes to reformation and re-insensification.

She's still a force to be reckoned with.

[Junkdrawer]

65. Visible Loop (Animation) here...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[Mari333]

63. If I were a religious person

Id say God is doing a smackdown on DC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3111686.stm

[ShaneGR]

66. Lots of rain

EVERYWHERE

[i have issues]

67. :kick:

[FubarFly]

70. kick

The dynamic images are really helpful.

Catagory 2 is still bad, but much better than what it was 3 days ago.

My heart goes out to anyone effected by this storm. Be safe.

[electricmonk]

71. Big waves a few miles out

WED NIGHT
E WINDS 40 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 TO 29 FEET. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH 3 NM VSBY.

THU
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SEAS 25 TO 30 FEET SUBSIDING TO
20 TO 25 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH 3 NM
VSBY.

Hopefully they'll stayout to sea. Can't imagine 3 story sized waves.

[althecat]

72. Latest GFS Model has track moving back to the east....

Just ran this series.. if you compare with the earlier one above you will see that the track is moving back to the east... it would not take much further for the eye to miss Cape Hatteras.

[Cheswick2.0]

74. I would not be suprized if it hit Md or NJ

and then went right over Ne PA. Having lived through the outer bands of Andrew, which was headed for Ft Lauderdale until it made a last minute shift, I know that even a few degrees change in direction can make all the difference.

[Cheswick2.0]

75. kick

.

[geomon666]

79. right

"Having lived through the outer bands of Andrew, which was headed for Ft Lauderdale until it made a last minute shift, I know that even a few degrees change in direction can make all the difference."

Having lived a few degrees south of you at the time all I can say is you're damn right. :-)

[Cheswick2.0]

76. kick

kick

[FubarFly]

77. kick

[molly]

78. Intermittent blowing here

not bad yet, but I lost all my cable - internet and TV for about 2 hours. I looked out and the police were parked up on the corner. When the FedEx delivery guy came, he said there was a big tree down and everyone on my adjoining street had lost their electricity.

[Cheswick2.0]

80. kick

kick