Here is why Dean can win in November, 2004

[CMT]

Some of this is from a Meetup speech in Madison, Wi from John Nichols, the Washington Correspondent from The Nation.

1) Dean is bringing new people into politics. Nichols asked how many people at the Meetup (a crowd of app. 220)had never been involved in a political campaign before? about half the hands in the room went up. And this is happening at every Meetup--brand new people are coming in and also people who had given up on politics are coming into the Dean campaign. In a country where only roughly 50% vote this could be crucial.

2) Dean has re-invented campaigning via the internet. Think of it by Nov. 2004 there could be a million people signed up for Meetups across the country and we really do work. This million people plus the usual Democratic party establishment of Organized Labor and party regulars could conduct the most extensive GOTV campaign ever mounted. Lit drops, phone banks, taking people to the polls, organizing neighborhoods--this more than anything could the difference with Bush's big bucks. Nichols also stated that this kind of turnout GOTV efforts and turnout could make all the difference in congressional races--infact, he said if Dean won he would be surprised if there was not major inroads for the Democrats in the congress--such as what Ronald Reagan had in 1980 when he won the senate and made big gains in the house--this too was unexpected.

3) When Dean speaks to people he doesn't speak down to them like too many politicians do. He has a simple message and he repeats it agressively. Nichols pointed out that this worked well for Ronald Reagan because the average voter could relate to and understand what Reagan was saying.

These are the major reasons I think Dean could do surprisingly well in the 2004 general election should he be our nominee. Other reasons include: The Green vote will be down from 2000--why? Bush--its that simple. Too many Nader voters will vote for a candidate who has a realistic chance to beat Bush and while they don't agree with Dean on every issue they will probably support him more than a Democratic nominee who voted for the Iraqi resolution.

Also, like it or not (and this is an issue I don't particularly support Dean on) the gun issue could be neutralized. The gun issue did cost Gore several states including West Virginia, New Hampshire, and his own state of Tennessee. If Dean could win every Gore state (and this is our base in 2004) and pick up New Hampshire (since he is from a neighboring state this will help too) and West Virginia (which is normally Democratic) he will win.

[Gman]

1. These are all some very good things but...

how do you keep the candidate from shooting his self in the foot?

[Ediacara]

2. I am not sure this is such a big deal

after all George Bush, the supposed president, hardly has a grasp of the English Language :-)

[ibegurpard]

17. 16 at my meetup in Billings on Wednesday

That's almost twice as many as last time. And I heard there was another on in town as well.
I wasn't able to attend...venue changed and I couldn't find it based on email notification.

[Ediacara]

27. 25 at ours in Bozeman

which is 13 more than last month

[jab105]

34. we had 135 thhis time....

60 last time...

I'm in Gainesville, FL

[CMT]

6. I haven't noticed Dean shooting himself in his foot

Nichols was asked too about Dean switching some positions and he didn't think it was a major problem as long as it doesn't get out of hand that voters like people who evolve and he thinks Dean has shown the capacity to grow in this campaign.

This said Nichols said that his prefered candidate is Kucinich but doesn't think that DK will have the capacity to go all the way and that he does have trouble with some of Dean's more moderate ideas and record.

[TLM]

9. The same way you stopped beating your wife...

by seeing BS loaded questions for what they are.

[RogueTrooper]

12. Na Gman

Our candidate has been "shooting himself in the foot" since he entered politics. Not done him any harm so far :evilgrin:

[LoZoccolo]

3. I disagree with #2...

...because I think he could have a million people signed up by November /2003/. There are 353,119 people signed up for his campaign (granted, only 100,000 signed up for meetup), but if all those people signed up and brought one more person to the October one you'd have around 700,000, and then if they brought one more person in November it would break a million. I think this would be easy; I'm already talking to two people about coming to meetups next month. This many people plugged directly into a campaign would be real useful if attack tactics start getting used.

Another thing to think about is whoever gets nominated, if they can get 5,000,000 people to contribute $50 to a campaign, we'd have Bush's estimated $250 million matched. I think Dean's real good at having this kind of wide-reaching distributed campaign.

[LoZoccolo]

5. Also, I forgot...

"And any time you got the Pope and the Dixie Chicks against ya', your time is up!"

[caledesi]

14. Definitely. Just put up the "bat" and he can get any $ he wants.

[idontwantaname]

4. dean may win...

but it doesnt necessarily mean he is the best for the future of the country and world. it seems he has a lot of mainstream catchy - jump on the bandwagon - warm fuzzy community ideas... but to apply it all to the nation and word is a different sort of game. it would be interesting to see who gets left out of his "community".

[PAMod]

25. My brain must be tired

What the hell does this even mean?

There's nothing warm & fuzzy about Dean's campaign, that's for sure. He is dead-on serious about getting this country back on track.

The "bandwagon" is filling up with progressive-minded Americans who are sick of being doormats to the right wingers that are ruining our country.

The "community" is all freedom-loving people in the world - a concept lost on the thugs in charge of our foreign policy.

[Ediacara]

7. Dean can pick up more than just WV and NH

I suspect he can pull in Arizona and Nevada, and even Montana.

Dean's two supposed negatives are gay marriage and anti-war. The gay-haters and war-mongers aren't going to vote democrat ever anyway, so they're non-issues.

The issue of guns, as well as rural and agricultural rejuvination (which really are big issues with Dean) can pull in some unusual states like Montana by way of the Dem base and swing voters.

PLUS, Dean will have an unimagineable amount of cash. Dean's campaign evergizes people like crazy and thousands of people have been giving afordable sums of money over and over. I think that Dean may get close to the amount of money that Bush will have, and that's something increadible!

Gore beat Bush (sort of) while being outspent tremendously. If the monitary playing field is leveled (or close to leveled) we'll get our message out there so much more, and force the Republicans to spend so much more cash in places they never even thought of like Oklahoma and South Dakota!

[CMT]

8. I agree

I mentioned WVA and NH just because they are the most obvious states to pick up, but yes, in the west I think Dean could win Arizona and Nevada--and posssibly Colorado.

[TLM]

10. Don't forget Missouri...

I think Dean would win MO too in large part because of his gun positions and union support.

[CMT]

11. do you think that Gep would be a good running mate for Dean?

Gep is great on domestic issues and would make Missouri very competitive. He also has strong labor support--or does his war support hurt him from becoming a Dean running mate?

[TheYellowDog]

28. Gep would make a good running mate

for Dean. So would Cleland, though.

[sham]

31. Gep is great on domestic issues

and I think he and Dean could really complement each other as running mates, but I don't like Gep on foreign policy. And the war vote would be a major contradiction because Dean opposed the war, and Gep still says he stands by his vote. It would be interesting to see how they would deal with that.

[Punkingal]

13. I wish I could share the enthusiasm for Dean......

that so many people have here, but I have not been especially impressed with him in either of the two debates. Having said that, I of course am sure he would be a million times better than Bush.

[Eloriel]

15. These debates aren't his best venue, that's true

See if you can catch him speaking some time, one of his stump speeches. Or read some of them -- the one I love is the Jund 23 Announcement speech. I thought it was superb.

And check out the Official blog.

I was quite amused and touched by the following which was posted on the blog yesterday:

Lori, September 4, 2003
I got interested in Howard Dean one day many months ago when I was half watching a televised candidate forum, half reading the newspaper. Blah blah blah blah blah blah came from the TV. Then, all of a sudden, I heard a voice answering "no, and here's why not ...." I nearly fell off the couch! I looked up, and it was Howard Dean. I'd never heard a politician just answer the goddam question before. They all seem to just launch into their favorite spiels -- maybe somewhere in there is an answer, but by the time they get to it we're all asleep.

Eloriel

[Ripley]

20. Hahah!

Thanks for the quote from Lori Eloriel...it sounds exactly like what happened to me!

This is his best asset...keeping your attention.

[Woodstock]

24. I got hooked watching a video of him on CSPAN

in January. I had to know more about him - here was someone speaking out against Bush and all of his failed policies, while the other candates were too busy voting for them. And he's really engaging and energetic and motivates the crowd - so not only is his message, good, but he can deliver it. He seems like an honest man who has not lost touch with the people, and that comes through. And he's moderate enough to appeal to a wide spectrum of voters.

[Woodstock]

23. Try this

http://www.deanforamerica.com/webcast

[mlawson]

16. It will be harder for Dean to win the nomination, than it will be

for him to beat GWB, IMO. But I am more and more convinced that the Dem power brokers will install some nominee who will NOT be able to beat bush. Just like in 1984.

But I believe that, if Dean or Edwards can somehow beat the DLC/DNC machine and get the nod, they can beat bush next year.

[David Zephyr]

18. CMT: "Dean is bringing new people into politics"

Is that the truth or what?!

Dean is a winner. Enjoyed your post.

I expect he will win even Republicans over.

[calimary]

30. He HAS energized people.

At the Dean meetup this past week, they asked how many people there had never been to a meetup before, and of the 50 or so people in the room, a VERY LARGE MAJORITY raised hands.

The very fact that you hear, over and over and over, the comments of people who admit they've "never been active in politics until Dean" or they've "never given money to any campaign before until Dean" or that they "never ever got involved in helping a campaign before until Dean" - is EXTREMELY significant.

This will fly in the face of all the Nader-parrots who claim there's no difference between Dems and rethugs, and that it doesn't matter anymore. These newbies being inspired to get involved are the leading edge of a great tidal wave, I suspect.

This also flies in the face of all those who fear a low turnout among the good guys in November 2004. With all the new people fired up to actually get involved and give a damn and donate money (many only being able to afford maybe 50 bucks or something), you may not have much voter apathy to worry about next year. If all these folks turn out, the election will be ours.

[RobertFrancisK]

19. I think Dean can win also

He needs to keep playing up his outside the beltway status and even take some shots at the democratic establishment that didn't want him to run after he gets the nomination (if he does). That would appeal to swing voters and libertarians a lot, for they tend to like mavericks. If he plays up the angle that he won the nomination by appealling to the people and not the establishment, I think he can definatly win.

[hooligan]

21. Also, Dean is attracting Independent voters

Like me.

[ThomWV]

22. Prepare for The Trump Card

I think Dean, or whoever the candidate will turn out to be, and in this case mabye Clark will be an asset, had better be prepared when Bush pulls out the trump card and takes military action again - say in the September area - against a country like Syria or even Jordan just to bring out that old jingoistic vote. It works and the whistle-ass is certainly not above doing it.

Thom

[pruner]

29. he already played the trump card

remember the 2002 elections.

the game's over for Bush.

[waggawagga]

26. Isn't it New Hamspshire OR West Virginia?

For the Dems to win all they have to do is win the same states Gore did and pick off one of these small states. If I were Dean I'd start spending a lot of time in Ohio (call it a feeling but I think he'd go over well there).

[Woodstock]

32. I think he'd go over well in W Va, too

They like straight talkers there.

[farmboxer]

33. What About The Republican Manufactured And Programmed

voting machines? How can any Democrat win, unless something can be done?