Do we live in a Tri-polar world now?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

The U.S.A., European Union and China.

In 2001 as American forces went into Afghanistan, most political commentators came to terms with the fact of their witnessing to the world's single power projecting their force on a country half-way around the world. No one it seemed could match the political will of this single 'hyperpower' as a French newspaper called it.

In 2004 things are certainly different. Although the U.S.A. is supremely dominant in military matters for years to come, it is bogged down in Iraq with little hope of resolution in the near future.

It's policies have met with diplomatic isolation from the rest of the world. With this isolation, the rest of the world turns to the surrogate world powers - The European Union and China for their help and influence.

THE EUROPEAN UNION

It's combined economy of 25 countries is already much larger the the USA economy. It's population is more than 350 million people (USA 290 million). The Euro has more notes of currency in circulation than even the dollar (despite the dollar being the world's reserve currency) and the Euro is seen by many to supercede the dollar (especially if middle east countries switch to denominating oil prices in Euros).

In world affairs, the European Union can wield much diplomatic influence, especially regarding their recent deal with Iran for non-nuclear proliferation. In the next 5 years, Europe is expected to agree to a new EU constitution that will allow for an elected European President and a European Foreign Minister. This pooling of sovereignty is likely to help the E.U. project it's influence more efficiently in the world.

However, the E.U. is significantly behind the U.S.A. in military matters due to the fact the there are 25 member countries with 25 different militaries. Europe has found hostility from its member countries against the idea of a common military and even a common defense policy.

CHINA

China's economy is running at breakneck speed, at around 10% growth year-on-year, which even the Chinese leadership is wanting to cool down. China's economy is on track to be larger than the U.S.A. in the next 20 years. It's population is numbered at 1.4 billion people, which is a vast population pool for economic growth and military mobilization.

China's military is very powerful. It has the world's largest land army that is seen to be expertly trained. It also has a powerful airforce and navy.

In world diplomacy, China has recently become more engaged in world affairs - a different tact that it's previous isolation from the rest of the world. Countries that don't look towards the U.S.A. (due to it's isolation) and towards the European Union (due to it's liberal ideas and ethics) look towards China. Zimbabwe is an example of this trend.

Zimbabwe is seen with hostility from the E.U. and U.S.A. It therefore looks to China and now falls under the Chinese sphere of influence. China buys Zimbabwe real estate in exchange for raw materials and foreign currency to prevent Zimbabwe's economy from collapsing even further. China has become the country to go to if you don't want to deal with the E.U. or U.S.A.

THE QUESTIONS

I would like to get fellow DUers perspective on this.
Do we live in a truly tri-polar world now?
If not, is it because the E.U. and China need a couple of more decades?

I'd appreciate your thoughts on this topic, even if you disagree with any of my writing.

[liberalpragmatist]

1. Not totally, but we're getting there

The US has such overwhelming strength in military power that it can dominate the world like neither the EU nor China can. The US is still by far the most powerful nation.

That said, China is nipping on our heels. They're building up a clear sphere of influence in East Asia and among the developing world. India is fast becoming a secondary power in Asia and may become a major rival to China for Asian influence in the world. The EU is unstable but is becoming more united and has tremendous economic power.

So we are moving towards a multipolar world, with large powers in each continent. Brazil would fulfil this role in S. America, too.

Frankly, Dumbya has greatly accelerated this. We have lost so much respect and credibility in the world. It's likely that we're going going to decline much more rapidly than we would have otherwise, and far less gracefully.

[Old and In the Way]

5. At what cost, military superiority?

That's the $400BB question. Didn't protect us on 9/11, did it? We don't seem to feel safer as a society. Yes, we have nuclear arsenals that can kill the world many times over...but that is ultimately a suicidal option for us, too.

While we are busy building Billion dollar aircraft carriers, the rest of the world is investing in education, their domestic economies, and a future. Power projection is great, but you can't eat it, it doesn't fix potholes, or and it doesn't make our society trained to compete in the global market.

[Maple]

2. No, it's multi-polar

There are no 'super-powers' anymore.

Any of them can be taken out by smaller nations in a guerrilla war, or by economic means.

Finally..no more empires. Now maybe we can get on with things.

[Cleita]

3. We were always regarded as imperialists with a big stick.

Now we are regarded as a rogue nation with a crazy leadership and some big weapons that aren't to be dismissed. I think there is a global leadership that might emerge from this and not in our favor, however, it may save the world and our country. Once, we are smacked down to size we can concentrate on being what Thomas Jefferson once envisioned for our country. Oh yes Bush and Company can fade into history following in the footsteps of all those who would be Emperor.

[Old and In the Way]

4. Good overview.

I do think there is a trend towards 3 economic/political sphere's in the world.

I believe China's military spending is somewhere around $20BB/year. I really don't think that they are projecting a big military threat....the military is more of a social institution today. Taiwan has them pretty pre-occupied, too. While they have a huge army, they also function as a sponge to absorb excess unemployed labor. And I really don't think traditional standing armies can compete with the miltary technology of modern warfare. This may change with China's entry into Space. They're are focusing on developing their domestic markets and dealing with rising expectations of the populations in the interior provinces. One thing I wonder about is what will happen when we have essentially outsourced all of our manufacturing. They may be less constrained to keep the RMB at parity to the USD, but, at that point, what option will the US have other than to pay the increase? I don't see a massive re-capitalization of investing in capital equipment, training, and brick and morter here. That could also change, I suppose.

What I don't understand is why we aren't cultivating Central/South American markets. This should be a growth market opportunity for US businesses and our physical proximity should make this attractive. Of course, this administration seems to only think about oil and we've created a shitload of badwill with our support of RW dictators so maybe the population isn't excited about buying US products. I guess they have faith in corporations to develop the markets, but I don't think there are many going there to do this on their own.

Probably, in the long term, it's a good thing for the world to have at least 3 strong spheres of influence.....this will keep one sphere's designs for world conquest in check, as the other 2 can act in concert to nuetralize that rogue sphere's ideas of world domination. We are in the process of learning that lesson now.

[aquart]

6. There are even people at DU who still believe the US is the only one.

The world's only superpower. George pissed it away groping for an empire.

[IrateCitizen]

7. More so than most realize...

The only thing I'd take issue with in your statement is placing China as another "pole" in the world. China is certainly ascending, but it is really just part of a much larger "pole", which is the Pacific Rim, headed by Japan, South Korea, and China.

The EU's GDP is now greater than that of the US. Both the EU and Pacific Rim are much more industrially productive than the US -- and becoming more environmentally-conscious. Both groups seem to realize something that the US does not yet -- that real power in the world is wielded economically, not militarily. The US is in the midst of following a path similar to the USSR immediately prior to its collapse -- military overspending and overstretching combined with a winnowing of industrial and creative base at home.

For an excellent overview of all of this, I'd suggest the book After the Empire by Emmanuel Todd.

[DinahMoeHum]

8. USA's epitaph? "The war is over, EuroAsia won. . .

they took all our money,
and never used a gun..."


:evilfrown: