Will Osama's "Capture" Mean a Landslide for Bush*?

[smirkymonkey]

That's what a friend of mine keeps saying - he thinks that the American public will be so grateful and relieved that they will cast their doubts aside and pull the lever for Bush*/Cheney.

I told him he was wrong, but now I am wondering. What do you think?

[Liberal Veteran]

1. At this point, I think most would see it as suspect if OBL was caught.

That's my take.

[jobycom]

7. I keep remembering that UBL tape where UBL said he would like to die

as a martyr striking a blow to the heart of the beast, meaning us. I wonder if Bush could work that in somehow. Blow up a plane just before it strikes DisneyWorld, and somehow have UBL's body discovered in the wreckage.

Ah, just rambling. It's hard not to imagine the unimaginable with this current group of thugs in the White House.

[allalone]

25. wanna bet?

they will also find a flight manual and some paper with arabic writing.

[Cat Atomic]

17. Same here.

[complain jane]

21. Me too

I don't think we'll ever "capture" bin laden

[IronLionZion]

2. Well, Time has Kerry up by like 7 points or so

so anything goes. Most people seem to have their minds made up already. I don't see many people switching for some stupid October surprise. Especially when it will be painfully obvious that it's rigged.

[JimHarper3]

23. The lowest common denominator

Look at the millions of people glued to the boob tube watching "reality" TV shows, instead of paying attention to the election. The GOP will haul Bin Laden up out of his cave in October because October surprises have worked in the past for them (and most people don't even know/remember what a GOP "October Surprise" is).
It may be predictable to those paying attention, but many millions are not paying attention--they are paying to get spoon-fed. If it makes good reality TV, then they will buy it--if you put in a few American flags, and some "brave solders" and "leader" who is punching his fist in a victory gesture, many millions will gobble it up--and cast votes like automatons.
It is up to each one of us to educate our own neighbors before this can be successfully pulled off.
Make no mistake, all those major corporations (and foreign governments) with their hands in the cookie jar will do anything they can to make sure the puppet stays in place for them.

[smirkymonkey]

27. That's what I was thinking

We all know enought to expect it, but the average american may not even be aware of terrorism as a political game.

I sometimes get the feeling that we are suddenly having all these "terra alerts" to build up people's fears and intensify the response when they finally drag him out in October.

I don't know, I think it could go either way.

[jobycom]

3. No, Americans are smarter than that

Most people will judge based on the whole picture, not just whether Bush has done anything successful in that particular week. It's hard to convince out of work factory employees in Ohio that a man who keeps telling them they are doing well deserves reelection just because he finally did something he swore he would do three years ago.

It could have an effect. It could sway some of the waivering Repubs and other intellectually and ethically challenged voters, but not a landslide.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. They won't catch him.

Shrub doesn't dare actually catch Osama. If OBL is in custody there's no more boogeyman to scare us with.

[smirkymonkey]

10. Good point, I didn't think of that...

OBL is only useful to them while he's at large.

[Bush_Eats_Beef]

19. There's also another reason why he doesn't dare to do it...

...look how peaceful things are in Iraq since Saddam's capture.

All the U.S. needs to do is air another "Ladies and gentlemen...we GOT him" press conference, with the "him" being OBL, and...as Jim Morrison once said...we will witness "the whole s**thouse go up in flames."

I don't even want to speculate about the blowback from the Islamic world once OBL's oral exam / headlice check video goes into heavy rotation. It's no longer about "bringing the mastermind of 9/11 to justice"...the occupation of Iraq changed the playing field.

I am starting to agree with the people who feel that Bush, deep down inside, really doesn't WANT another term. He's a slacker, for God's sake. He wants to get a buzz on and be a frat boy again. Running the free world is too much like hard work.

[yorgatron]

5. "look here everbody!

we have a dead guy with a beard!" might work,might not,i don't know.i do know this,if they can develop about a million new jobs AND lower the price of gas about 50 cents a gallon they win.

[sendero]

6. It might be worth a point...

... or so. But after all, Bush* himself said that OBL "didn't matter".

[LiberalPersona]

8. Not even close

It will get him a temporary small increase of approval in polls like the capture of Saddam Hussein did, but that's about it. People are pissed and they're not going to change their minds just because of a single positive thing.

[Poiuyt]

9. It depends when it would happen

If it happens real soon, Bush would get a bump, but then it would go back down. Just like when they captured Saddam. If it happens closer to the election, it might be enough to tip the scales toward Bush.

[RandomKoolzip]

11. More like a collective "what took you so long?!"

n/t

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

12. Did he include himself in that number? I mean, he thinks it's fine for

shrubco to have Osama on ice somewhere and just produce him for the votes? I know one or two Repubs who think this kind of thing is just fine, as long as they win.

[NewJeffCT]

38. I think Osama is on ice

And, Bushco is so confident in their control of the media that nobody will question it when Bush drags Osama out in chains for his acceptance speech at the RNC.

"Osama" - if it really is Osama - will then be shuffled off to isolation for interrogation. Then, a week or two after Bushco is annointed again, they'll figure out that it is either a fake Osama or that Osama had been on ice for weeks, if not months. And, it will be spun that since Boy George captured him, he could do with Osama what he wanted.

[Old and In the Way]

13. Is Vegas making book on this?

They should be. I'd wager $100.00 that OBL is not amongst the living. I think Bush tipped it when he told us on 3/15/02 that catching OBL "didn't matter". I think he knew he was dead.....but he was still going to play an important upcoming role in justfying his invasion of Iraq.

OTOH, they might wheel out some slides of OBL's DNA material and announce his demise....but that won't have nearly the same effect as the Saddam dog and pony show.

[PsN2Wind]

14. I don't see a helluva lot of people

saying "WOW!!, Dubya caught OBL we're safe now". Most rational people are probably going to think that there is little change in the chance of a terrorist attack just because this one man was captured. And the even more rational are going to think that our effort in Iraq has created even more terrorists. Plus I would be surprised if the terrorists didn't rush an attack of some sort just to show than Osama wasn't the whole deal.

[meti57b]

15. By now, the public has OBL confused with SH and they think we already ....

caught him.

[Cha]

16. I think bush is gonna lose ...so all this speculation about

what's going to happen between now and then is just that.

The bottom line is bush is going to Lose..so we'll talk in November.

[Enraged_Ape]

18. Oh, give me a fucking break

Bush will have to resuscitate Jesus of Nazareth himself to salvage any kind of "pollage". No one gives a fucking shit about Osama Bin Laden anymore. Even Homo Ridiculous himself said Osama was no big deal. Bush will get just about as much traction out of finding Osama's (frozen) corpse as he did out of finding Sadaam, which is to say NOTHING.

[smirkymonkey]

28. See post #20.

[Osama_Bin_Winnin]

20. You really

can't underestimate the stupidity of the American people.

[Cha]

22. Now there's something I totally agree with.

[Katarina]

24. Sorry, I haven't read any of the replies

but I have feared this happening so any message board in my area, I have posted that I suspect OBL will be caught right before the election. We have a lot of people on this board and if we all made an effort to do this, if it should come to pass, maybe some of these people would remember those posts predicting it. Let's all make an effort to get the word out. Because I honestly think this is something that BushCo will try to do.

Thank you, and back to your regular programming.

[genius]

26. It'll mean that bin Laden is working for Bush

Citizens for Legitimate Government is calling the organization Al-Bush-duh

[WLKjr]

29. According to MSNBC * poll numbers in a live vote are 28% to 70% Kerry

137000 votes

link:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5660374/

[michigandem2]

30. I dont' think so....

why now? how convenient!
Only because the October surprise is heavily on my mind...i won't be surprised if he pulls that out of his ass as a last ditch effort

[gasperc]

31. uh with, Iraq becoming a total diaster

it just won't matter, becuase Usama's capture won't bring ANY of the insurgents to the table nor any of the terror cell heads.

[RedCloud]

32. hope for a patriotic whistle blower!

Imagine how that would crush the repugnants nation wide if a military figure clad, in decorated uniform, broke silence about holding our CIA stooge, Usama, captive for several years waiting for a politically more opportune time to expose his capture.

The repugs do not deserve a single vote.

[Behind the Aegis]

33. October surprise

I feel the capture of Bin Laden would have to be too well timed for the Mis-Administration. If they spring too early, they will lose votes as questions pop-up, if they spring too late, people will think it is a ruse (is that the correct word?).

After talking with my partner, I came to the conclusion that the most effective "October surprise" is that Chaney will "retire" due to health concerns and, of course, to be with his family (bleech). Then, the Shrub will announce McCain as his new VP. A move like this would bring back the moderates they are losing in droves, and would also, possibly, shake loose some of our more conservative Democrats.

However, that being said, this mis-Administration has shown they will stoop to anything to re-steal an election! We must fight with everything we have, not lose hope, and be prepared for a very, very ugly few months...until we see a President we can believe in...John Kerry!!

[Kazak]

34. Assuming OBL isn't dead (which I think he is)...

I'm guessing this dirty trickery will backfire like the rest of their trickery.

[UdoKier]

35. No. It will make no difference.

Bush is doing a lousy job.

[Karenina]

36. Will they use the "Fat Osama"

as a stand-in? No matter what the psy-ops pulled, if the AMERICAN PEOPLE don't boot that *jackass out IF you manage to hold elections, you will be considered "fair game." Take that to Citibank and cash it.

[Ducks In A Row]

37. No. The public will finally realize Osama was always captured

and is being trotted out for political affect.

It will be the straw that breaks the back of the public's belief in Bush.

[noonwitch]

39. It depends on the circumstances

There is always the question of why did it take so long. For the most part, yes, I think it would likely ensure a Bush victory unless it was an obvious fraud or was followed by major terror strikes within US borders.