RELAX!! Kerry's pollster predicted no bounce before convention

[zaj]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10250-2004Jul23.html

Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Bush's reelection campaign, said earlier this month that the Democrats should have a lead of more than 15 percentage points coming out of the convention. (Most polls show Kerry with a slight edge now.) Dowd based that figure on the average amount of support challengers have picked up after announcing their vice presidential pick and after the convention in every presidential race since 1976. Bush campaign officials stuck by Dowd's number last week.

In a memo on the subject, Dowd cited a bullish comment made by Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe on CBS's "Face the Nation" on July 4: "I think you're going to see Senator Kerry anywhere from 8 to 12 points up" when the convention ends.

Not gonna happen, Democrats say.

Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, says that Kerry has already gotten his bounce -- he's consolidated Democratic support (there aren't many "swing" voters left to convince), which has left him in a far stronger position than most challengers have been going into their conventions. Mellman points out that since 1956, incumbent presidents have held an average lead of 16 points in preconvention polls, which means Kerry is ahead of the typical benchmark.

In a memo replying to Dowd, Mellman suggests that the pressure is actually on Bush. Only three sitting presidents over the past 50 years have been behind in the polls after the challenger's convention, he says. And all three (George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Gerald R. Ford) lost.

[stepnw1f]

1. I Don't Believe In Corporate Polls

It doesn't matter to me, and it shouldn't matter to anyone else here. Bush is done, it's inevitable and we won't stop there. We are going to secure and change Democracy. Say good bye Lieberman.

[lancdem]

2. Thanks for posting this!

Mellman knows what he's talking about. The three polls out today have Kerry leading by 4, 5 and 6 points (including Nader). Bush is in the same boat as Poppy, Carter and Ford.

[prodigal_green]

3. Not much voter "elasticity" so no bounce is no surprise. n/t

[Joe Fields]

4. When most experts agree that the percentage of

undecided voters is the slimmest in modern history, (anywhere from 15 to 20 points) it is most unreasonable for the media to cry "no real bounce".

If John Kerry gets a five to seven point bounce, which it looks like he has gotten, depending on the poll, then he has garnered almost half of the undecideds, which is pretty darn good. Keeping in mind that Bush has pretty much stayed even, that looks awfully good for Kerry. It looks even better when other factors are taken into consideration. Kerry has a great deal more upside potential in almost every category, as opposed to Bush.