SURPRISE-New ABC poll to show Bush leading 48-46

[59millionmorons]

Now why am I not shocked by this.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/07/26/new_polls.html


Oh well they also showed the race tied in there last poll while everyonelse had Kerry leading.


RCP Average 7/17-7/24 44.0% 45.1% 3.4% Kerry +1.1
IBD/TIPP (883 RV) 7/19-7/24 42% 44% 3% Kerry +2

Time/SRBI (1000 RV) 7/20-7/22 43% 46% 5% Kerry +3

Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV) 7/18-7/22 43% 44% 4% Kerry +1

Fox News (767 LV) 7/20-7/21 43% 44% 3% Kerry +1

NBC/WSJ (813 RV) 7/19-7/21 47% 45% 2% Bush +2
CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV) 7/19-7/21 46% 47% 4% Kerry +1
LA Times (1,529 RV) 7/17-7/21 44% 46% 3% Kerry +2

Pew (1,568 RV) 7/8-7/18 44% 46% 3% Kerry +2

IBD/TIPP (842 RV) 7/12-7/17 40% 42% 4% Kerry +2

Marist (938 RV) 7/12-7/15 44% 45% 2% Kerry +1

CBS/NYT (823 RV) 7/11-7/15 42% 45% 5% Kerry +3

Dem Corps** (1,010 LV) 7/10-7/13 45% 48% 4% Kerry +3
Wash Post/ABC (721 RV) 7/8-7/11 46% 46% 4% TIE
CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV) 7/8-7/11 45% 50% 2% Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP (800 RV) 7/6-7/10 43% 47% 4% Kerry +4
Newsweek (1,001 RV) 7/8-7/9 44% 47% 3% Kerry +3
Time (774 LV) 7/6-7/8 45% 47% 4% Kerry +2
Zogby (1008 LV) 7/6-7/7 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2

[swag]

1. Seems the only folks who were at home to answer the phone

over the weekend were in Texas.

[lancdem]

2. Still within the margin of error

Any incumbent who doesn't have a big lead at this point in the race loses.

[iconoclastic cat]

15. Do you agree with that bit of wisdom?

I hear people say that all the time. Is that wishful thinking, or is there any truth to it?

[SaveElmer]

3. Ignore Kerry's number

If Bushs number stays low we will win. Most undecideds will break for Kerry

I guarantee Bush's approval will drop over the next two weeks

[59millionmorons]

5. I feel better

Ater seeing how poorly ABC did in 2000

ABC News Tracking (Nov. 3-5)
Margin of error +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%

[creeksneakers2]

4. Its probably a fluke

Anyway, it might be good to have it out there. If the next poll shows Kerry ahead it will look like a positive bounce from the convention.

[Beetwasher]

7. Not A "Fluke"

I'm beginning to get the feeling that there are a few polling orgs who carry water for the admin. and release biased polls at appropriate/strategic times as cover. Right before the Dem convention is a good time for a poll coming out showing Bush in the lead, so a Kerry bounce can be claimed and then negated later by the Repub convention or other factors.

I only have my observations to back this up, I certainly don't have proof, so don't ask for it.

If you were going to steal an election you would need the cover of at least a few polls showing a close race all along. I have the sick, sinking feeling that this is what's going on. I expect other, more objective polls to come out that are in direct contradict this poll.

I'm not saying they are making up these numbers out of whole cloth, BTW. There are more subtle ways to bias polls that are practically undetectable.

[depakid]

14. I agree with your observations

I've noted the very same thing-

Some people in the know have already come to the conclusion that the Georgia elections were indeed rigged, based on the highly improbable swing in the polls taken several days before the elections and the actual results reported on the Diebold machines. Even though there (conveniently) was no exit polling, any honest statistician will tell you that swings of the magnitude seen in Georgia were not due to chance error in the polls. Unfortunately, they cannot rule out exuberant last minute changes in peoples' voting choices or habits based on pre-election polling data alone.

[Beetwasher]

18. Yup, This Year They Will Say

"Well, the discrepancies in the polls were all due to the undecideds at the last minute deciding they didn't want to switch leaders in the middle of the war on terror. As you can see, there were at least some polls (ABC/Gallup/NBC) that had Bush ahead and this race within the margin of error right up to the election, so this is not at all surprising."

You can also see the backstory being laid in the recent AP article having Bush ahead in electoral votes. It was total bullshit. TN, which in every poll is a dead heat, was counted for Bush, yet PA which has Kerry breaking away w/ a 10 pt. lead was considered a battleground state. So now Kerry, in the public consciousness, has to catch up to Bush in electoral votes, when every other analysis has Kerry ahead.

[SayitAintSo]

9. How 'bout a lie ....

pants on fire ...

[merh]

6. What I cannot figure out is why they post erroneous poll

results. I mean, it just encourages dems and anti-bushites to get out and work harder. It also allows his bunch to relax and not take it so seriously (dahh all the polls show we are ahead, dahhh).

Now if they posted we were 10% ahead, that would bother me cause folks wouldn't worry, figuring its in the bag.

Nov 2004 proved, it is never in the bag.

[Paradise]

8. LOL! :)

We're W A Y beyond shock! :crazy:

[Reciprocity]

10. Who gets Florida in this poll? n/t

[Jackpine Radical]

11. Funny--I just started a thread about how I lied on a poll

conducted by something called the Conservative Union. Told 'em I was voting for Bush & then trashed DOMA, told 'em I wanted my taxes increased, etc. I wonder if this kinda responding is getting common...?

[Sandpiper]

12. ABC is owned by Disney

You know, the same Disney that refused to distribute Fahrenheit 9/11.

[Reciprocity]

13. "ABC is owned by Disney" Enough said.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. I think this kind of disinformation will backfire on them.

Keep folks on the left from getting complacent, etc.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I Had A Nice Democratic Buzz Going On

till I went to www.pollingreport.com.



I should avoid these sites.....


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