Who would Clark hurt most: Dean or Kerry?

[poskonig]

In the event that Clark runs, from who does he take the most votes away?

I'm simply curious. A friend argued that it would hurt Kerry more, since many like Kerry because of his military record. However, Dean is seen as a sort of "savior," and Clark seems to be positioning himself for the savior niche. This may sap some of Dean's support in favor of Kerry.

What do you think?

[Nashyra]

1. Dean

but Clark/Dean would be ok.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. Hmmm....

He would take votes from Kerry for those who are simply voting for the candidate with more military experience.

But I think he would take some Dean votes too.

[arcos]

3. I don't think he would hurt either...

He would probably take a few votes away from them, but most likely he would take a bunch of the undecided voters, and would hurt Lieberman and Edwards the most because they have been the biggest supporters of the Iraq invasion, among the candidates. True, Clark was against the war, but some of the appeal of Lieberman and Edwards is that they would be "tough on security". And definitely Clark has that appeal to.

[Catch22Dem]

4. At first I rolled my eyes at your question

But when I actually gave it some thought, I decided it's a very interesting question. I don't have the answer.

For this voter, I haven't chosen a candidate yet. I like some better than others at this point, but I keep that to myself. I will say that I think EVERY SINGLE candidate has MANY wonderful merits. Some more than others, obviously. Bottom line is, I'd vote for anyone who gets the nomination.

Having said that, if Clark enters the race, he's my man.

[DrPepper]

5. "Take Him Out"

I remember reading somewhere that supposedly the Kerry campaign could "take him (Dean) out at any time". Could this mean get Clark to run with the promise of giving him the VP spot if Kerry got the nomination?

They better hurry it up before the Dean momentum gets too strong to undermine simply by Clark running.

[CMT]

6. I think he hurts Kerry more

because one of Kerry's great assets is his war hero status and he is banking on ex-service men and women to support him especially in a state like SC. Clark also presents a military story which could take some of these votes away from Kerry. Clark could also potentially do well in the South especially with men and this could hurt Edwards and Graham in that region of the country.

[Catch22Dem]

7. Very analytical response

And very correct. I've heard a lot of women talk about how good looking Clark is. (some men too :)) Which, sadly enough, interests people enough to vote for him.

His military service will attract a huge base.

And you're also right about him doing well in the South. Being from Arkansas could be an advantage. Basically, he's Edwards with experience.

[Kahuna]

13. Clark hurts Dean among his moderate supporters.

Don't take my word for it. Check out the Dean supporters on the petition who would flip if Clark runs.

http://www.draftwesleyclark.com/supporters.htm

[CMT]

25. I'm sure he would take some votes from Dean too

but I still believe with his military background he would hurt Kerry most overall and probably Edwards and Graham especially in the south.

[dsc]

8. I have no earthly clue

Clark is a bit of a cypher right now due to people having no idea of his stands on important domestic issues. I think a case can be made for him hurting Dean (outsider, anti war), Kerry (vet, Catholic convert), Edwards (southerner), and Lieberman (security, Jewish). Depending on what he does and what the press does he could hurt any candidate or all about equally. Thus I have no clue.

[Kahuna]

15. You assume incorrectly that supporters don't know where

Clark stands on domestic issues. We have posted many links every time we are challenged in this regard.

This link to the current Esquire magazine is a nine page profile on Clark. There are at least 7 Clark websites out there which have been posted and linked on DU time and time again. So it's really disengenuous to claim we don't know what his positions are.

http://www.esquire.com/features/articles/2003/030801_mfe_clark_1.html

[poskonig]

17. I suspect a lot of it depends on the technical things.

For example, it is stated Clark does well during one-on-one interviews. Kerry also has this quality, but goes into "lecture mode" when he is in front of an audience. Dean currently sucks when ambushed on the one-on-one stuff but does well in front of audiences big time. How Clark performs may be a factor -- if he turns out to be a dry guy, I think he makes it easier for Dean; if he is charismatic in front of a lot of people, I believe he hurts both, since he would have the interviewing and oratory down.

Can Clark raise money and organize support? I'm sure he will get the support of Democrats who are spooked by Rove on Bush's superior handling of Iraq other issues they supposedly dominate. But can Clark give the glowing, clever one-liners that motivate support, such as "we need regime change in America" or "I want my country back?" It remains to be seen -- a plain-style like Lieberman may not be much of a plus, though if that is the case, it hurts Kerry.

My intial insight, however, told me he hurts Dean a lot and Kerry a little. I think the "savior" phenomena along, Rove's b.s., and the McGovern stuff the DLC has been making a lot of Deanies gittery about Dean, and they would be the one's to jump ship to the next savior in the apocalptic fight against evil, injustice, and stupidity. I'm not sure we can count Dean out if Clark runs, since Dean has shown an amazing ability to mobilize under extreme conditions, to extricate himself from difficult entanglements, and to counterattack effectively. It would be *very* interesting to see how Dean and Kerry react to a Clark run -- whether they attack, what gimmicks they think up, et cetera. Of course, if they aren't willing to fight, they aren't willing to win.

Thanks for the comments, everyone!

[dsc]

18. With all due respect

I read the links provided and to be blunt it ia a lot of platitudes. He is in favor of progressive taxation but no detail as to how much of the Bush cut he would recind. No health care plan at all. No enviromental position that I could find. He has given not one major domestic policy address and therefore people are left discerning the meaning of things like what is listed above.

[tjdee]

20. I agree with this.

As I say above, it's all "no duh" stuff.

Pro-choice? Progressive taxation? No shit, sherlock, LOL!

It's a good start, and as I said, he already starts at #2 with me, but I worry about placing too much stock in him for the same reason some did with Kerry at first--he's a military veteran (or, LOL, SACEUR).

I've got to see something else, and if he runs I guess I'll see it.

[tjdee]

9. All of them.

A Clark candidacy is so vague in its goals, its stances, etc. that it's hard to tell. His 'views', so dutifully put out there by some of the drafters, are pretty much common sense, no duh positions.

That would be a case where we'd have to really take a look at ability to govern after winning the election. What is his slogan/logline/etc.? Who is he? We'd really be in the crapper if he turns out to be a mediocre politician.

Assuming he meets minimal political requirements, he would put a major hurting on all the major candidates, and someone would have to wrest the nomination away from him if it came to that. Though, personally, I'd prefer an Edwards/Clark ticket, I could live quite happily with a Clark/Edwards ticket. Maybe.

I agree that it would have the most effect, straight off anyway, on Kerry.

[Catch22Dem]

11. Wanna know who he is?

Read this VERY long article: http://www.esquire.com/features/articles/2003/030801_mfe_clark_1.html

[tjdee]

19. Is he a one trick pony?

I don't know, and neither do you.

I read the article, and I do like Clark very much.

BUT.

Just because someone is well accomplished, and particularly just because they have the fortune to be a veteran post 9/11 does NOT automatically make them a good political candidate.

I want to hear how he's going to get Americans jobs. I want to hear how he's going to handle education, etc.

All that will come if he runs, I suppose, but I can't jump on his bandwagon sight unseen, so to speak. And I'd hope no one else does.
National security will be an issue, but that's exactly what Bush wants. I want to see if Clark can compete with him on the questions Bush DOES NOT want to answer--like our crappy economy, health insurance, etc.

[MidwestTransplant]

10. Both!

Because he would win the nomination!

n/t

[wes_clark_for_pres]

26. EXACTLY!!!! n/t

[wes_clark_for_pres]

27. then...with Kerry as VP

he hurts Bush!

[Kahuna]

12. Both! Read the letters on the petition...

Do a "find in page" on Dean and Kerry. There are several people poised to flip if Clark announces. He will hurt every candidate running. People will scramble and fall over themselves to get behind Clark if he runs.

[molly]

14. I really like Clark, but he lacks the political

experiences of Kerry. I think a Kerry/Clark ticket would be unbeatable.

[Kahuna]

16. Kerry is hardly a model of political savvy...

I like Kerry but am very uninspired by him. I'm uninspired by all of the candidates who currrently hold office. None of them have demonstrated "leadership" or any specific policy changes that will motivate people to vote against bush. I can see why deanie..er..boppers, cling to him. He seems to have some leadership qualities, though they are mostly unproven (to the masses - sounds good on paper) too.

We need to give people who are unhappy with Bush a reason to vote on election day. the fact that they may be dissatisfied is unfortunately, not enough reason for them to make a special trip to the polls. I have heard too many people who don't like bush say that they won't vote because their vote won't count anyway. This is what we are up against to unseat bush.

If things stay just like they are now in America and don't get any worse by election day, I can see people staying home in droves. Except for bush's fundie base who will march in lockstep to the polls. We need someone who offers real hope for a change to motivate them to get out and vote.

[midem]

21. neither

As far as I know he has next to 0 dollars at this point and the others have 10 million plus with only a few months left in the primary build up. Its just too late for his to makle a real run for the top spot in 2004.

[leftwingnut]

23. exactly!!

either shit or get of the pot!!

it's to late for Clark to enter the race...he should hope for a vp nomination...i.e. Dean/Clark!!

[RogueTrooper]

22. My view

I think, initially, Clark will hit the 'Beltway' candidates the hardest although, I believe his ultimate target will be Dean. The people behind Team Clark are very sharp. Much of their campaign is, so far, modelled on the Dean campaign. They cannot, formally, move into the electoral arena, as of yet, as they are not quite ready. However, move, they will.

The Beltway candidates will be hit hardest because Clark will take a lot of their support, and potential support, away from them. He is the insiders' outsider candidate. A Howard Dean they can exert some control over. If the technocrats fear Howard Dean winning the nomination, and they do, they will throw their support behind Clark. To of the mainstream insider candidates, Edwards and Lieberman, will withdraw from the race.

Lieberman's campaign is already on the wane and Edwards will have to decide soon if he runs for President or fights for his senate seat. They may try to attack Clark before they leave but, ultimately, they will be unsuccessful.

Kerry is an interesting one. I think his campaign will suffer. He has more scope to attack Clark but that strength, his military service, is also his main weakness against Clark. I think there is little in the way of original thinking in the Kerry campaign and they will be as hard pressed to adequately respond to Clark as they have been to respond to Howard Dean. Clark will not attack Kerry as he had no need; his presence alone will be enough to inflict the mortal wound. Oscar Wilde will again be proved right: It is better to be hated than ignored.

Team Clark will, in accordance with the "Get Dean" strategy go after Dr. Dean with gusto. Clark is a stranger to the Democratic Party and may find campaigning against Dean harder going than you might think. Dean has connections through the Governor's Associations ( partisan and non-partisan ) that Clark does not. Clark will have the support of the beltway insiders but he may struggle out in the field. His grassroots organizing is certainly coming along but he is a long way from Dean's current numbers and will be even further when he does decide to run. Clark is going to have to be careful how he goes after Dean.

Clark has very similar policy positions to Howard Dean. Dean's may be a little better fleshed out than Clark's equivalents but it is obvious that they come from the same part of the political street. He will have to take care of his rear ( the other candidates ) and a wrong footed attack on Dean and he will be tarred and feathered with the DLC brush.

I am, as my avatar would suggest, a Dean supporter. I would say, looking at the potential field, Clark is our most serious challenger. However, I think, his political inexperience coupled with the maturity of Dean's activist base will see Dean through to the end.

I think the ticket will be Dean\Clark.

[leftwingnut]

24. very well said!! eom