Rall's Rule of Ideological Balance by Ted Rall

[arcos]

RALL'S RULE OF IDEOLOGICAL BALANCE

Leftist or centrist? That's the big question facing Democrats in the run-up to next year's primaries. "The way to beat George Bush is not to be like him," declares former Vermont governor Howard Dean, whose feisty antiwar rhetoric has caught fire among liberals and made him the current frontrunner for the nomination. Seizing the centrist standard of the Clintonites, Senator Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) warns that a liberal standard-bearer like Dean "could lead the Democratic Party into the political wilderness for a long time to come. It could be, really, a ticket to nowhere."

<snip>

Try to imagine an ideological 50-yard line, a perfect middle-of-the-road position that represents the median of American political thinking at any given time. George W. Bush falls as far to the right of that line as any president in memory. Bill Clinton sat a little to the left of that line; FDR was about as far to the left as Bush is to the right. In modern history, challengers have been most likely to beat incumbent presidents or vice presidents when they seemed to reside the same distance from that 50-yard line as their opponent. If you're trying to unseat a moderate, swing voters are key. Your best bet is to run as one yourself. But moderates don't beat extremists--extremists do, by motivating their base.

<snip>

Reagan's 1980 defeat of Carter (right-winger beats moderate) is the only modern presidential election that doesn't validate the ideological-balance rule. In 1996, however, challenger Bob Dole failed to distance himself from Newt Gingrich's extremist "Republican Revolution" of 1994, came off as a right-winger, and lost to moderate Democrat Clinton. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis was far more left than the moderate Bush I of '88; Mondale's milquetoast moderation failed to attract sufficient angry liberal voters to counter Ronald Reagan (news - web sites)'s energized supporters in 1984.

<snip>

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=127&ncid=742&e=7&u=/030807/7/4x2xh.html


Very interesting article. I am agnostic regarding Rall's Rule, but it is certainly a different point of view from the DLC opinion that a liberal cannot win. Even more amusing is that for some (like the DLC), Dean is too liberal, while some see him as too conservative.

Can a liberal win? Obviously no one is right or wrong because it all depends on your point of view and the political climate of the moment. But Rall's perspective is very interesting and one to keep in mind.

[Ohio Dem]

1. Interesting.

It makes sense, kinda.

[JanMichael]

2. Rall is a unique cartoonist. He's also a clever editorialist too.

I agree with view as to how dismount the crazed faux cowboy, run a REAL damned alternative! A "Left" Dem is the ONLY Dem that can win on this most uneven of playing fields.

Anyone that thinks that milquetoast moderates can take out real, truly real, far right extremism is kidding themselves.

We have a nation full of blood thirsty carnivores, an herbavore will only be eaten...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Don't Endorse The Proposition

that Dukakis was to the left of Mondale and if his premise is wrong everything that flows from it is wrong.

If anybody remembers Dukakis said this campaign is about "competence not ideology"

Here's my thesis. I'll develop it at a later date. It's not really novel anyway.

The great debate in American politics is about culture- the secularists versus the traditionalists.

Skilled politicians like Clinton were able to mitigate this debate by blurring the lines and even Clinton for all his obvious political skills could not make these lines disappear.

[arcos]

4. I don't think he's saying Dukakis was more to the left...

but he ran more to the left than George Bush to the right, while Mondale ran more to the center than Reagan to the right. "Rall's Rule" says that the challenger should run more or less at the same distance from the center than the incumbent.

[maggrwaggr]

9. Dukakis was simply too East-Coast for the rest of America

I wish people realized that. And Mondale was too much of the black-suited, bryl-creamed hair, making-secret-deals-with-unions sort of old-school Democrat.

Not exactly populist leaders, either one of them.

Dukakis would only play on the East Coast, that's all there is to it, it didn't really matter what his policies were.

[aquart]

5. Like I've been saying.

No more Mr. Nice Democrat.

[stilpist]

6. But the Smirk doesn't run right.

A problem with Rall's thesis is that although the Chimp has governed as if he had a far right mandate, he ran as a centrist.
Well, qualify that. His hard right base knew what he was about, but many independents saw him as a centrist. Incredibly, with the help of the media and Rove's slyness, many independents still see him that way. And likely he'll run that way again. So what matters more: who he really is, or who he pretends to be?

Personally, I'm not sure which approach is more likely to whip his ass, but I sure do hope somebody figures it out. Worst usurper we ever had!

- stil

[arcos]

8. he ran to the center in 2000...

but after governing from the far right, it will be hard for them to do it again.

[Ouabache]

11. Won't be hard for them to run to the center

Most of the electorate pay no never mind until 2 weeks before the election. If he is ensconced in the center then by the media, that is where they will think he has been for four years.

Democrats job is to make sure all his policies are seen to come from where they really do ---the hard, far, extremem rightwing.

[leftofthedial]

7. Rall rocks

he's the Thomas Paine of the new left.

Very interesting idea.

I think the Democratic nominee needs to run as a liberal, not a centrist.

[maggrwaggr]

10. not even a "liberal" in the old sense

but a pragmatist, which is what I feel Howard Dean is, and why he has such appeal.

Bush only appeals to rabid right-wingers and people who are really scared of looking at the truth.

Dean appeals to those who want the truth.

I think more and more republicans who are pragmatists, and who are tired of getting bullshitted, are gonna go Dean's way.

Most people with half a brain know when they're being bullshitted.