THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW... can a movie effect the election?

[ulTRAX]

At the end of the month is a SFX spectacular called The Day After Tomorrow. Here's some leads: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=%22the+day+after+tomorrow%22

It's based upon an older book called The Coming Global Superstorm coauthored by Art Bell. I haven't read it so I can't comment but tidbits are fascinating. Did such storms ravage the planet some 10,000 years ago?

The premise of the movie that should polar melting can cause some key ocean currents fail, setting in motion catastrophic climate change. Global Warming could paradoxically set forces in motion that could lead to a new Ice Age.

Bush has been sabotaging government GW research. The global warming debate is off the front pages. The Right-wing propaganda machine is doing everything it can to pretend if GW is real... it doesn't matter.

Can a movie in which most of the US is virtually destroyed in a few weeks get Joe Sixpack to question the Bush's Junta's dogmatic inaction?

[bobbieinok]

1. Art Bell,,,

[HFishbine]

32. Ditto

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Far-fetched but plausible

Art Bell and Whitley Steiber wrote the book. Most climatologists think the process would take about 10 years, but the premise of Superstorm makes just as much sense.

People like to bash on them because of their paranormal interests, but they actually wrote a pretty good popular scientific book. With a lot of speculation, mind you, but the book cites many scientists who have been initiated into the Mystical Brotherhood of Peer Review. :)

The movie looks like it will be great eye-candy; the script is supposed to be pretty good, given that it's a disaster flick; and if it increases awareness of our ongoing climate change, I'll be happy.

We discuss this subject a lot on the Environment and Science forum. There's some excellent stuff over there -- check it out!

--bkl

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

3. No, it isn't plausible.

Art Bell has a habit of taking things out of context and always picking the worst-case scenario (which in many cases is "speculative" nonsense that isn't backed up by data) It is NOT science, regardless of who he's seen fit to cite. Many of the scienists he likes to cite have refuted his claims - that is, those who saw fit to dignify his inane gibberish with a response. In this case, the scientific community has actually come out in force to say that this movie is nonsense.

With that said, this movie looks pretty entertaining. I'll probably go see it and take it for what it is - eye candy disaster stuff.

[Arianrhod]

8. The movie is typical Emmerich blow-it-all-up pap,

but the science is correct. The Gulf Stream is dependent on both the temperature and the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean, which act as an engine driving the current that warms western Europe. Continued global heating is melting glaciers at an alarming rate, which is changing both of those conditions in the North Atlantic. Should the engine fail, as it has several times in the last 10,000 years, we will enter a new Ice Age. How drastic and long-lasting this Ice Age will be is impossible to predict, but signs of its coming are already all around us.

There was a Gulf-produced Ice Age around 8000 years ago, and another in the Middle Ages (currently known as "The Little Ice Age").

Check out the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute for some papers on the subject. The German Environment Ministry also recently put out a paper on it, but it's in German, so you may not be able to read it.

[DrWeird]

9. No, the science is horrible.

Yes, Greenland ice melt could shut down the mid Atlantic conveyor, resulting in another "little ice age" for Northern Europe.

No, that won't cause a massive tidal wave that will wipe out major New York landmarks and subsequently freeze solid.

[ulTRAX]

15. if you read the book

DrWeird wrote: "No, the science is horrible. Yes, Greenland ice melt could shut down the mid Atlantic conveyor, resulting in another "little ice age" for Northern Europe. No, that won't cause a massive tidal wave that will wipe out major New York landmarks and subsequently freeze solid."

I have no idea how good or bad the science is. I only posted about the possible political ramifications of the movie. BTW If you read the DAT book... the tidal wave is supposed to be a storm surge. The freezing is supposed to be caused by massive downdrafts of supercold air from mesosphere. The temperature of the mesopause can be as low as -130F. That may be bad science to conceive of such downdrafts. I think they were looking for explanations of how some frozen mammoth carcasses have been found unchewed vegetation in their mouths.

[Arianrhod]

57. Didn't mean to imply that Emmerich had it right.

That's why I called it "pap". But the science that sparked his idea for the film is correct. Even *'s hand-picked team told him that. In fact, the Pentagon recently came out with a paper saying that this is of greater urgency than the threat of terrorism.

The generals are taking it very seriously.

[Emboldened Chimp]

12. Emmerich isn't the problem--it's Devlin

He was the one who Hollywood-ized all their movies. Emmerich directed this one without him, so it might be a little more on the dark side. And word around the campfire is that the movie is good. We'll see.

[Kellanved]

46. I don't like Emmerich's movies, but he is a Green

eom.

[ulTRAX]

7. uniformitarian dogma

Back when I was an undergrad in the mid-70's I took a few geology courses. I found the uniformitarian dogma of the time intellectually bankrupt. While there was plenty of evidence, there was an ideological blind spot that geologic change could be catastrophic.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

27. uniformitarianism

This has softened a bit in recent years, mostly as a result of the recognition of asteroid/comet impact as an agent of change. There are still those who adhere to it strictly, but their numbers seem to be decreasing.

A lot of uniformitarian doctrine is still valid, and the basic premise of trying to understand the geologic past using present-day observalble phenomena is very valid. However, it's usefulness for describing simultaneous world-wide phenomena (extinctions, the rapid onset of some climatic changes) is somewhat decreased.

[ulTRAX]

4. The VEEP Looks Like Dick Cheney

If you look at that DAT trailers... the vice president looks a lot like Dick Cheney. Think that's coincidence?

[gpandas]

6. another push for the culture of fear and guilt n/t

[ulTRAX]

21. another drive-by post with no content?

So you going to flesh out your comments? Or just do a drive-by post?

[gpandas]

29. sorry, thought it was self-evident...

i also think that fear and guilt are the biggest power tools wielded by those who challenge our democracy. the fed gov uses fear almost as well as religions. think about it, would the people of this country endorse this war if they were not afraid of something happening to them? bush and the repugs create fear when none exists. fear is what makes people abandon their own interests, and fear is the reason many can justify destroying civil rights. of course religion is the flagship of our fear and guilt culture. they have had so many years of practice. religion preys upon the greatest fear of man (what happens when i die) and causes the greatest guilt when they say you will go to hell if you don't do as i say, the guilt of failing a god they make up in the first place. the post meant that any device that increases fear of the unknown furthers this culture. btw, i am guilty of drive by posting, which seems to be common practice on du. after posting some lengthy arguements as a brand newbie and recieving no responses i felt one needs to build a base of a thousand inane posts to get a response.on edit i fucked up, my post was to original message

[DrWeird]

5. Looks like it will be as bad as Van Helsing.

Looks like another case of Hollywood Ripoff, too.

Like Armageddon, and Deep Impact

Antz, and A Bugs Life

and Matrix and The Thirteenth Floor and Dark City.

In this case, the concept is: let's take a bunch of scary things from a whole bunch of completely different movies, and throw them into one big movie, complete with bad CGI.

[Emboldened Chimp]

10. I thought the trailer looked good

and since Emmerich directed without Devlin, it might actually be a good movie.

[DrWeird]

11. trailers usually do.

So do used cars at seedy used car dealerships.

[Emboldened Chimp]

13. Man, such pessimism!

[Nashyra]

14. I for one am looking forward to seeing it

maybe I'm just a poor critic of movies? Anyway I like anything that makes our enviroment look scary or bad so that people think about it, and it seems the administration has been makking noises about not commenting on it, and if turns out to be a hit you the press will be all over it.

[sazdem]

16. Just a movie

Looks like a bunch of great special effects. Since I go to movies to be entertained, not informed. I will probably enjoy this one....

[Emboldened Chimp]

17. You're right, it is just a movie

I don't see why the administration is getting worked up about it. This thing was probably in development before * took office, so I don't see it necessarily as an indictment against his policies, though it is possible that the writing was guided by them. It is a disaster movie first and foremost, not a political statement.

[ulTRAX]

20. if you read the book

If you read the DAT book.... politics clearly play a role in the plot. There's a conflict between the paleo-climatologist who's digging up the evidence of past such superstorms, and a pig-headed vice president that looks a lot like Cheney.

[newyawker99]

28. Hi sazdem!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Kool Kitty]

33. You're right, it is just a movie.

Which begs the question-if it's just a movie, why are the idiots in this administration getting their knickers in a twist over it? Do they have to control what we see as entertainment, too? Are they that thin-skinned that they can't let any disagreement (or perceived disagreement, however miniscule) with any of their policies go unchallenged? This is a movie, for heaven's sake! I have never seen such a bunch of cry-babies in my life.

[Catherine Vincent]

18. I just want to know the safest place in the US

if this thing took place. Should we all avoid the coastal areas and move toward the center?

I do plan to see the movie.

[NewJeffCT]

19. No way - the right will paint it as wacko Hollyweird libruls

even if the science of the movie is spot on (first time in sci-fi movie history, I'm guessing)- Rushbo, Hannity, etc will paint it as a movie made by wacko Hollyweird libruls financed by Babs Streisand, Courtney Love and others who are out of touch with the mainstream

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

23. The problem is that they're right.

The problem is that they're right (at least about the wacko bit) The director has been out there shouting "This could really happen!" which is utter nonsense, totally unsupported by available evidence.

[Kool Kitty]

34. No, the problem is that this is just a film and should be

treated that way. The more this administration and the right-wing blowholes that carry water for it gripe about this film, the more free advertisement they give it. And that just might make people wonder why they are so dead-set against it.
And no one knows whether it could happen or not. Anything can (and does) usually happen. The fact is that this administration has taken the stance that global warming is a farce. And I think they are wrong about that.

[karabekian]

22. if we need a movie to effect the election

we are toast

[ulTRAX]

24. anyone say we "need" a movie?

Please stop projecting into my post.

[karabekian]

39. i don't see how a movie would change anything

n/c

[ulTRAX]

43. then your answer to my question.....

"Can a movie in which most of the US is virtually destroyed in a few weeks get Joe Sixpack to question the Bush's Junta's dogmatic inaction?"

Is NO.

The first question you answered was one I didn't ask.

[Thoth]

25. I just this LTTE to my local paper on this movie...

The Day After Tomorrow

On May 28, the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" opens in theaters. Though it depicts the absolute worst case scenario of how a sudden, severe climate change might occur, it may serve as a wake-up call to those still denying the very reality of climate change and its likely destructive impacts on human society and the environment. In the book on which the movie is based, ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream stop flowing as a result of a large influx of fresh water into the northern Atlantic from melting glaciers and the polar ice cap. Large parts of the northern hemisphere become uninhabitable as the climate suddenly changes to ice age conditions. Though most climatologists believe such an extreme event is unlikely, it is not completely out of the picture, as a recent report commissioned by the Pentagon suggests. The Pentagon study warns that "With at least eight abrupt climate change events documented in the geological record, it seems that the questions to ask are when will this happen, what will the likely impacts be and how can we best prepare for it, rather than will this really happen." Whether we will fry or freeze remains to be seen, but at the very least we can be quite sure that the climate by the end of this century will deteriorate from what we enjoy today if present rates of greenhouse gas emissions go unchecked. It is long past time we pressure our elected representatives to take climate change seriously. If we do not act, we will get the climate we deserve, whether it can support us or not.

-----------

I will be sending it to a few others, like the Boston Globe (I'll have to cut out 100 words for that!)

[Indiana_Dem]

42. Hey, can you submit it to my little local paper?

It's really good!

[mouse7]

26. "Flash-frozen" people the same as giving alien computers a virus

There's a moment in these movies where plausablity goes flying out the window at some point. In "Independence Day" it was Jeff Goldblum interfacing with an alien computer with a Mac laptop and giving the alien computer a virus. I knew that Mac OS X was versatile, but I didn't know it had a universal translator built into it.

I saw the trailer, and the plausability went out the window when I saw people being flash-frozen. I can only turn off so much of my brain for these types of flicks. That moment requires more of my brain turned off than I am capable of doing.

[ulTRAX]

30. that movie lost its credibility before that

The virus was as ridiculous as attacking a 15 mile wide UFO with stinger missiles.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

37. So you're saying...

that the UFOs LIHOP? Or... Nevermind. This doesn't make any sense.

[Speck Tater]

40. Ignore those flash frozen wooly mamouths...

... still standing upright, and with half-chewed food in their mouths. Couldn't have happened, so the folks who claimed to have discovered them must have been lying commie liberal scumbags. Ah, it feels so much better to know that the great God of SCICOP knows all and will tell me what to think.

But just in case, should I get an electric blanket?

[ulTRAX]

44. Creationist Loonies LOVE Frozen Mammoths!!!

Most of the links here are "creation science" bullshit
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&q=mammoths+frozen+mouths

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

45. Link?

1) Supporting evidence, please! This is one I'd like to see.

2) You misspelled mammoth. (and maybe I did, too... too lazy to spel cheek)

[qb]

31. I thought Art Bell was Bush's sex slave. Does he approve of this movie

considering it could be damaging to Bush's reselection?

[Kool Kitty]

35. Art Bell does approve of this movie, according to his

statements about it on his show. This may be the only point at which he parts ways with W.

[meow mix]

48. Bell has been against Iraq War - since before it started.

and has made many statements on the air to this effect.
these days..
thats about all i need to hear.

save the crap-talk for someone who deserves it mmkay?

[Kool Kitty]

55. You're right about Art being against the war.

I forgot about that. Think I'm getting CRS.

[AgadorSparticus]

36. looks like a good movie. i'm going to go see it when it comes out.

and i think the CGI looks pretty good. can't wait.

[Dogmudgeon]

38. The Coming Global Internet Shitstorm

Man, you can tell that a lot of sharp knives are out for The Day After Tomorrow.

Yes, it will probably be a visually stunning movie, with less of a plot than there would be in a movie about some drug-addled yuppie's mother dying, and the science will be OK but awkwardly cobbled together to make a more dramatic effect. Still, the cries of outrage are puzzling ... where are the Swinging Bachelors of Science when Congress is in session? Why don't the Skeppers appear, clutching copies of Skeptical Inquirer to their breasts, when Team Bush sends Science out to work the mean streets like a twenty-dollar crack ho?

But the Skeppers are hard at work Skepping the movie, based entirely on the reputation of Strieber and Bell as paranormal writers ... "Science? It's by Bell and Strieber ... We don' NEED no steenkin' Science!"

Then, the Film Critics have emerged ... "It will be shyte (British pronunciation only, please). Terrible. Completely lacking in nuanced themes, post-modernist modalities, and, most reprehensibly, devoid of interracial teenage lesbian anarchist love scenes. Typical whitebread bourgeoise pandering! Feh!"

NASA is under orders to savage the film, too ... "Well, of course it's unscientific! Mr. Cheney, Mr. Stossel, and everybody at the Pioneer Fund says so!" Meanwhile, a top-secret ski lodge is constructed deep underneath launch pad 37-A for Vice-president Cheney to use as an Undisclosed Location, "just in case".

Speaking of Mr. Stossel, I can hardly wait for his unimpeachable journalistic arch-skepping of the movie, on ABC: "Superstorm ... or Superscam? The Skeptical Environmentalist Investigates." Clad in his "Bad Boy of Science" leather jacket, Der Stössel will conclude that all modern climatology is a Politically Correct™ quasi-religious cult based on Socialism, and that its followers -- who waste huge amounts of The Taxpayers' Dollars™ -- are simply resentful of successful capitalists. Case closed.

<Fiction>
Shortly after Bush wins the election, Wallace Broecker and Robert Gagosian lose all their grant money; Lamont-Doherty Earth Lab and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Climatology group are shuttered; and in mid-September, a number of Siberian and Alaskan towns are wiped out by the appearance of the mysterious "Dancers" ... The "Dancer" is an ancient legend shared by both the Western Inuit AND the Siberian Chukchi, suggesting a common origin before human beings first crossed the land bridge that joined Asia to North America during the last ice age. A Dancer is described as an enormous windstorm that only happens once every three generations, that freezes people and large animals on the spot, and resembles a tornado -- except that the Dancer is blindingly white, since it is a tornado of ice and snow...
</Fiction>

Mind you, I do expect the Film Critics to be too interested in covering the Olson Twins' arrest at a Brentwood orgy to want to cover the End of the World. As we know it. And I feel fine.

--bkl
"Behold! The door shuts tightly on wicked Man, and the appliance light bulb of GOD goes dark. Many shall be Cold, but few will be Frozen!"
(Frigidaire 2:14-15)

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

49. the Dancer concept is pretty cool...

...a tornado of ice and snow! Neat!

[meow mix]

50. your right, they already are here in this Thread! heh

but the fact of the matter is.

no one really knows whats exactly what is going to happen during the next century.
it could be worse than this movie...
but the concept in itself is a very good thing to point out to people!

much to the annoyance of the skeps..
(who want people to believe that everything is going to be just prefect and wonderful)

there will be no climate change, and just keep doing exactly what your doing.
dont worry... be happy. (and keep consuming, faster)

[robbedvoter]

41. I hope not, since the Passion is forcefed to the wingnutz

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

47. I want to see the glaciars advance on Cleveland!

If we are talking about a new ice age I would like to see the glaciars advance on Buffalo and Cleveland, tidal waves on Lake Michigan, wild ass shit like that...

New York getting hit by a tidal wave is just so, well, predictable. I want to see an ice age, not a remake of the Poseidon Adventure....

[meow mix]

51. LA gets super tornados instead of earthquake..

i think? what happens in la?! heh

[hatrack]

52. Roland Emmerich - Feh!

I think we can relax and assume that this is going to be another big-budget Hollywood POS, though one with an environmental theme, which is at least something of a change of pace. I have to confess, I probably will cough up the requisite $7 and see the thing but I'm not terribly confident as to its quality.

Glacial and sediment records do show extremely rapid climate changes happening in the past. Some seem to have been linked more to geological events, such as the closing of the Panama Isthmus. Others may have been pushed by declines in ocean salinity. One example is the draining of Glacial Lake Missoula, which not only created the scablands of the Pacific Northwest, but possibly also caused a rapid cooling because of ocean conveyer shutdown.

But "extremely rapid" has two very different meanings for scientists and producer/directors. A ten-year "madhouse" period, in which climatologists believe the climate can flip rapidly between cold and warm regimes, is extremely rapid by geological standards. But apparently the whole thing in the movie takes about five days, which is possible (I guess) though not likely.

All the above cautionary notes aside, I'm also confident that the corpo-whores will bend over backwards to howl about the movie's scientific inaccuracy (as though it were airing on Nova or Frontline), while simultaneously running star/director interviews in the usual blitz to pump up ticket sales.

What's striking was NASA's initial e-mail order to its scientists not to discuss the movie's premise with the public. Just yesterday they issued a "clarification" saying that their message muzzling their scientists shouldn't have been taken as an attempt to muzzle their scientists.

So, yeah, I think there is a political angle to this story, though if the movie sucks, the thudding sound at the box office will be more than enough to render the preliminary sound and fury gratutious.

[meow mix]

53. hi hatrack, been busy in environment..

thanks for all the good articles in there =)
*hugs*

[hatrack]

54. You're most welcome, Meow Mix!!!

Thanks for stopping by! ;-)

[MadHound]

56. Can it? Sure it can! Will it ? Probably not, well the odds aren't good.

In the past twenty five years, there are only a handful of movies that I can think of that had an impact on American political thought. The China Syndrome, since it was also closely coupled with the Three Mile Island disaster, played a large part in having no new nuclear plants open up. Silkwood also sparked reforms in the nuclear industry. Wag the Dog hurt Clinton, and by association Gore, and remains an enduring political catchphrase. All the President's Men, for it brought Nixon's crimes to the masses. And there are probably more.

But all of these effects are indirect, an innoculation of the body politic. Don't expect it to impact how a person votes, but more how a person comes to grip with our political life. What that person brings to the voting booth if you will.
But a lot depends on both luck and talent. Does the movie parallel an ongoing event? Does the movie raise questions that make the viewer think? Is the movie engaging enough both in plot and acting to open up the viewer to the inherent questions encompassing the movie?

The only way to find these questions out is to see the movie for yourself. What Bushco has to say about it brings to mind Shakespearean odes, and that always makes me curious. But having been concieved Art Bell, well, that's just an open invitation for ridicule. The odds of this movie having an impact on the election are very long, but not impossible.