These are the facts. This is the truth. We WILL win.

[TruthIsAll]

Summary of the Analysis:

The average Kerry lead over Bush in April polling is 2.89% (8 polls). This is his all-time high average lead. Kerry has come from 11 points down to 3 points up, a 14 point net gain, since January. Bush's average poll numbers have DECLINED every month since January.

CNN has Bush ahead by 3%. This appears to be very suspicious when compared to the average. Kerry's average lead is 3.22% if CNN is not included. Suspicions are raised even further when Bush CNN job approval is compared to 10 other polls.

Bush is at his lowest all time job approval (11 polls): 48.25%
CNN has him 4% higher than the average. Notice a pattern here?



Bush has spent a lot of his money advertising.
He is now having to cut back.
Heavy Bush spending on advertising has had virtually no effect.

The Bush "War President" aura has been demolished.
Thank you, Richard Clarke.

The trend and momentum is clearly toward Kerry.
Kerry is raising money at a record-breaking pace
Kerry has spent only a small percentage of his funds.

The Democrats are UNIFIED.
Even Lieberman is campaigning for Kerry.

There is no longer a question that Bush KNEW before 9/11.
There is no longer a question that Bush DID NOTHING.

Iraq is coming apart.
Are WMD being planted?
The Woodward book is not flattering to Bush.
The Wilson book is coming out shortly.
The Moore 9/11 film is in final editing.
There are at least 8 ongoing critical investigations of Bush, Cheney and the GOP.
...................................................................

12POLL AVERAGE
AVG Kerry Bush Spread
Jan 40.50 51.25 -10.75
Feb 47.50 45.13 2.38
Mar 46.82 45.09 1.73
Apr 47.33 44.44 2.89
...................................
IBD
Jan na na
Feb 44 41 3
Mar 40 45 -5
Apr 45 43 2

ABC
Jan na na
Feb 52 43 9
Mar 53 44 9
Apr na na

AP
Jan 37 54 -17
Feb na na
Mar 45 46 -1
Apr 44 45 -1

NWK
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 50 45 5
Mar 48 45 3
Apr 50 43 7

ARG
Jan 47 46 1
Feb 48 46 2
Mar 50 43 7
Apr 50 44 6

NBC
Jan 35 54 -19
Feb na na
Mar 45 47 -2
Apr na na

FOX
Jan 32 54 -22
Feb 43 47 -4
Mar 44 44 0
Apr 48 43 5

CBS
Jan 48 43 5
Feb 47 46 1
Mar 43 46 -3
Apr 48 43 5

CNN
Jan 43 55 -12
Feb 48 49 -1
Mar 52 44 8
Apr 45 48 -3

PEW
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 48 44 4
Mar 47 46 1
Apr na na

LA Times
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar na na
Apr 49 46 3

Zogby
Jan na na
Feb na na
Mar 48 46 2
Apr 47 45 2

[coloradodem2005]

1. Sounds good to me.

We must not get complacent though. I will be among many who cheer when the reign of George W. Bush ends. If he looses on 11-2-2004, I will be smiling ear to ear. If President Kerry is being inagurated on 1-20-2005, I will be doing summersaults.

[keithyboy]

34. But what do we win?

Winning will be losing in this next election I am sorry to say.
Just think about it. After we win, what the hell do we win?

[freetobegay]

2. You forgot one very important fact!

Most Americans are sheeple!

[TruthIsAll]

3. Not true. The American people are waking up. Look at the polls.

Bush is going down. The only question is: How far and how fast?

[freetobegay]

5. I truly hope you are correct!

But I sometimes wonder.

[Melodybe]

4. Chris Rock just reminded a few million people that not only is Shrub

and idiot the media is covering for him.

The truth is out, people want Bush gone.

[Barbara Ann]

6. I'll believe it when it happens

I don't put anything past this desperate bunch.

[Beam Me Up]

12. Time for another "terrorist attack"

to get another SPIKE in those polls.

Of course some say they wouldn't DO that. I think they would. I think they want to ignite total war in the Middle East. All they need is to eliminate one major city anywhere in the West with a small nuclear device. Then they can say it was OBVIOUSLY terrorism, drive public opinion to accept all out war abroad and, if they deem it necessary, martial law here at home.

Wouldn't surprise me one bit.

[Denver Bear]

22. They're already hinting at this.....

http://www.comcast.net/News/DOMESTIC//XML/1152_Cabinet/8ebd9cc2-95d2-4858-8cb2-101e5be6842e.html

[dusty64]

33. But the only claim to fame

they have left is that another "terra" attack hasn't happened since 9/11. While I wouldn't doubt our regime would do this again, I really think it would paint them as the complete and miserable failure that they are and the fact that they can do nothing right.

[LoZoccolo]

7. I remember someone here would post a chart...

...that would show like a ton of polls at once on a line graph, so you could see how certain polls lean. Does anyone know where this service is?

[TruthIsAll]

8. I have just included the Bush job approval chart in the original post.

TIA

[gristy]

21. Go here

www.radiofreemonkey.com

Here's a sample from that site:
http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/img_bush_kerry_spread.gif

They don't plot all the polls, though. The last CNN datapoint is from early Feb, when only FOX news was giving * a higher polling result.

[OneBlueSky]

9. not as long as BushCo owns the voting machines . . .

do you REALLY think they're going to allow themselves to lose this election? . . . not a chance . . . they'll do whatever they have to to win . . . including altering election results in enough districts in enough key states to give them an Electoral College majority . . . take it to the bank . . .

[TruthIsAll]

10. That is the ONLY way they can win. By stealing it. But...

to do this they will have to get the pollsters to prop up Bush so as to keep him close enough (within 4% of Kerry) to steal it. CNN and Fox will surely try just that.

But I trust Zogby and Newsweek, as well as some of the others, to poll fairly.

If Kerry is ahead by an average 6% or more in the final polls, it is unlikely that Bush can steal it. I assume there will be exit polling, but who knows after the 2002 fiasco.

That's why the next set of polls are key. We will see if the Kerry trend continues and he widens his lead, as he should, to 5%.

[JackDragna]

11. Numbers, numbers, numbers..

..you're attaching relevance to poll numbers in April? Bush hasn't even begun to bring out the negative attacks. He has the most well-oiled character assassination squad in presidential history. Ultimately, you have to remember one thing: Americans are stumpfuck stupid. As soon as it gets close to election time, the president will saturate the airwaves with his mom-flag-apple pie routine until all the Super-Patriots quiver with joy. Oh, and all the independents will get that little idea in their minds that because Dubya talks more about overt, chest-beating patriotism than Kerry, that Dubya will actually be better for America than Kerry. Let's also not forget about the electronic voting machines, more shenanigans like the people purged from the rolls in Florida..face it, folks. We're boned, and anyone who says otherwise is living in a dream world.

[TruthIsAll]

13. Bush has gone negative. It hasn't worked. And it won't going forward.

Bush came up empty after smearing Kerry with the bogus Jane Fonda photo and that bullshit affair.

Those indies and Repubs who have decided to not vote for Bush will not go back. They see through him and Rove. Any bounce he gets from Wagging the Dog or capturing Osama will be negligible.

Why shouldn't we look at Bush vs. Kerry poll numbers now? And job ratings also. There has never been an incumbent who has won reelection with such low approval ratings six months before the election.

Now Diebold is another story.

TIA

[porkrind]

29. OMFG !

"stumpfuck stupid"

That's one of the best terms I've ever heard! I laughed out loud. Thanks!

[TruthIsAll]

14. Bookmark this post. I will update every month.

TIA

[seabeyond]

15. and anytime i do cnn polls

kerry is always way ahead. yet then their numbers come out different. leaves me in question in the consistancy in this over the months

[mediaman007]

16. please explain...

Do you have "inside" knowledge?

[sleepystudent]

17. oh please...

We had these same threads right before the 2002 election-literally with people chanting "we will win...we will win..." and what happened?
Threads like these just encourage complacency, as if we have already won, the race is over, we don't have to do anything. I don't want to see a wave of these threads and then have everyone gather the day after the election and ask "What happened? I thought people on DU said we were going to win..."

People need to get off their butts, stop looking at polls like they are crystal balls, act like we are behind(at least financially, we are way behind) and scratch and claw to win. Not come on here and post that Bush is toast and we have it in the bag. Cause we don't. And threads like this do nothing to help.

[TruthIsAll]

18. Sorry you don't like the poll stats. You fail to see the overall.

The purpose of tracking them is to
1) gage the trend
2) be wary of poll-rigging to prop up Bush

Wouldn't you like to know if and when the pollsters are propping up Bush to prepare for another stolen election?

They stole it in 2000.
They stole it in 2002.

We will watch them very closely in 2004. That is why we need to track them.

Your repeating the mantra of not becoming complacent is a given.
That is why I am running the numbers.

Forewarned is forearmed. Have you ever heard of that?

Cheers,

TIA

[Deja Q]

26. THANK YOU!!!

You are absolutely spot-on.

We were fools before, getting pie in our face.

In 2000, we had no clue.

In 2002, we didn't know they'd stoop so low.

And I think we might be getting another visit from the baker if we maintain the phony-bologna of "The polls say it all, nyah nyah nyah-nyah-nyah!" Only this time, we have only ourselves to blame.

[kwolf68]

19. Too early

I like the signs, but the propaganda machine has yet to hit full force yet.

Expect some really deranged accusations against Kerry. I predict this will be the dirtiest campaign in the history of American politics and Kerry will get slammed.

However, Kerry is the better man, the smarter man, and Bush doesn't deserve to keep the job where there remains questions if he earned it in the first place.

Still, propaganda can produce false realities and here in American that is usually the way of the world. I'm hoping, but not going to get fooled into a major letdown come Novemeber.

[TruthIsAll]

20. I expect the worst from Bush. But so does everyone else.

Everyone expects dirt. That's why they are deserting Bush, apart from his miserable failures.

Bush is caught in a vise. He needs dirt to win, but the more crap he digs up, the deeper he falls into his own dung.

You fail to see that Bush cannot extricate himself. He is losing moderates from his base every day. Rove has nothing to work with.

Demonizing Kerry the war-hero, experienced Senator, uniter of Democrats, will not work. Kerry will throw the truth right back at Rove and give him hell, as Truman would say.

[gristy]

25. I agree.

Bush is up to his neck in the slop of his own making. He cannot extricate himself. The more he struggles, the more his sinks. His campaign and the public's perception of him is essentially out of his control. His past behavior, the legislation he passed over his four years, his numerous improprieties, lies, and illegal maneuvers, the disaster in Iraq, and his failure to conceive and implement a viable program to control terrorism in the U.S. and throughout the world are all things now out of his control. The only thing in his control is his propaganda machine, but that machine IMO is woefully under-matched against the forces I've mentioned.

[sable302]

23. If that chart was not Bush's numbers

but a chart of a company's stock performance, I certainly wouldn't be investing a nickel.

Everything points down a cliff. Not good for the president, IMHO.

[Deja Q]

24. Here are some more facts (and unlike polls, these are unconditional):

WHO is getting polled?

ARE they being polled several times over?

WILL the election be fair, no hanky-panky goin' on like last time with Florida officials and the US 'Supreme' Court?

How about the October or just-before-election Surprise?

We did not expect Gore to lose in 2000.

We did not expect to lose big in 2002.

I also made a post earlier today. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=1430198&mesg_id=1430198 (I looked it up. Enjoy.)

Bush is not toast, we need to be vigilant, we can not go around saying "whee, he's toast with frosting on it, wee-hee woo-hoo!!!"

[IronLionZion]

27. I think Kerry spends it as fast as he gets it

Bush has a humongous war chest plus the corporate media is with him.

[TruthIsAll]

30. Kerry is holding onto his cash. Smart. Not like Bush. n/t

TIA

[BabsSong]

28. When I see "the polls" one thing keeps running in my mind

All states are not created equal----for example: every call made to Texans and very other southern homesteads probably yields about 85% pro Bush responses. I'm wondering how that factors into the overall in that it's already a given that these people will glow red on election night. It's how things are going in the critical states that make the difference. I'm not just talking about "what are the numbers" but "what are the trends"?? We have a whole bunch of mid-Western states that we won by a hair and have to keep and we have a shot at a few that Bush just won by a hair. Now, I've seen no recent data but heard some analyst mention that after Bush's ads, there was a significant pick up of pro-Bush. I would love to see data from: Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio and further east - Pennsylvania. I'd be interested, too, in places like Arkansas which I believe was our only bright spot in the interim elections. These are the states where this thing is won or lost. That's why I wonder how they are polling. If they do X number per state then it would definitely look like Bush is hanging in there. But once you get outside the ones that are a 'given' for Bush, that's the states I want to know about.

[Zinfandel]

31. We'll win, doesn't mean shit...we won last time, BushCo is going

to steal this one too, (BBV).

[Egalitarian]

32. Notice the diminishing returns

on "good" events? Even with a strong October surprise this trend implies that there will be little effect and that it is likely to be extremely short lived.