If Kerry does not gain at least 2% in the April polls, the fix is in..

[TruthIsAll]

If Kerry does not gain at least 2% in the April polls, the fix is in. I say this because of the Clarke 60 Minutes interview, his devastating 9/11 testimony, phenomenal book sales and the character assassination response of the WH. It doesn't look good for Bush.

In addition, if Bush's April job ratings don't drop at least 2%(to 46%), that's further proof that the media has frozen his decline to prepare things for the Diebold Coup.

****************
10-POLL AVERAGE

Avg Bush Kerry
Jan 49.38 42.25
Feb 45.33 47.00
Mar 44.88 46.50
****************

IBD Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 41 44
Mar 45 40

ABC Bush Kerry
Jan na na
Feb 43 52
Mar 44 53


AP Bush Kerry
Jan 54 37
Feb na na
Mar 46 45


NEWSWK Bush Kerry
Jan 52 41
Feb 45 50
Mar 45 48


ARG Bush Kerry
Jan 46 47
Feb 46 48
Mar 43 50


NBC Bush Kerry
Jan 54 35
Feb na na
Mar 47 45

FOX Bush Kerry
Jan 54 32
Feb 47 43
Mar 44 44

CBS Bush Kerry
Jan 43 48
Feb 46 47
Mar 46 43


CNN Bush Kerry
Jan 55 43
Feb 49 48
Mar 44 52


PEW Bush Kerry
Jan 52 41
Feb 47 47
Mar 44 48

[whatelseisnew]

1. The fix is likely in anyway, there will be a w* 'comeback'

count on it

[Jeebo]

2. This is why there MUST be exit polling on Nov. 2...

Is anybody going to do exit polling on Nov. 2? Correct me if my memory is faulty about this, but didn't the people who did exit polling in the Nov. 2000 election announce that they're not going to do it for this election? We've GOT to be sure that exit polling is done for this upcoming election. Exit polling is the most accurate kind there is, obviously, because you're polling people who actually do vote and you're catching them at the same time that they cast their votes. So if the voting machines are rigged, WE'LL KNOW ABOUT IT and will be able to prove it statistically with good exit polling data.

We let them get away with rigging and stealing the 2000 election. We can't let them get away with it again.

Ron

[TruthIsAll]

5. You are 100% correct.

We need a Voter Paper Ballot AND Exit Polling for just the reasons you state.

BTW, I did a probability analysis post right after the 2002 elections to prove circumstantially that the Repugs stole it. Four out of 10 senate races in which the Dems were way ahead (beyond the Margin of Error) ALL fell to the Repugs.

The odds: Less than 1 out of 40,000 that this was due to mere chance.

[Jeebo]

7. Bev Harris said Ga. 2002 was a "statistical impossibility"

Bev Harris said a few months ago on ... I think it was Thom Hartmann's radio show ... that what happened in the Nov. 2002 Georgia gubernatorial and Senate races was a "statistical impossibility." And there's Chuck Hagel in Nebraska. His first election to the Senate was a huge upset, and then he was re-elected with 80% of the vote ... in two elections in which all of the votes were counted on machines made by HIS old company that he had been the CEO of before he ran for the Senate.

All of this stuff (and lots more) stinks to high heaven. How much longer are we going to let it keep happening?

Ron

[ParanoidPat]

16. Read all about it here.....

.....:evilgrin:

:kick:BLACK BOX VOTING - Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century:kick:

Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9*
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Chapter 13*
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Appendix
Footnotes
Index

* graphics, allow time to load

Requires free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view. :)

[tom_paine]

9. They have got AP-Pravda doing the Exit Polling

Which makes it utterly untrustowrthy and corrupteed. AP is thoproughly infiltrated by Busheviks and we'd be crazy to think they've left anything to chance regarding the one mecanism that could catch them at fraud.

[bobbieinok]

11. I heard there was no exit polling in 2002 - is this right??

[tom_paine]

12. That is correct. Lots of "upsets" you know.

Nice coinkydink, don't you think?

[shoopnyc123]

3. Garbage...

...he was doing well before the lastest stuff; the nail in the coffin will be the movie this summer "The Hunting Of The President". Nuff said.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Exactly WHAT do you disagree with? Of course Kerry is doing well..

all I am saying is that if he doesn't get at least a 2% kick from all the Clarke news, that means the pollsters are propping Bush up.

You call that garbage?

[Racenut20]

4. polls polls & more polls

If we never get above 50%, which I don't think we have, we are not going to win in November. Have to beat that number and keep it.

[David__77]

8. I disagree.

The media spin was a Bush "bounceback" in the wake of Kerry sealing up the nomination. The conventional wisdom was that Kerry got all this "free positive publicity" and so it was inevitable that he get dirtied up and Bush gain on him. I think this has not happened. Maybe a lot of the Clarke effect "soaked up" the Bush "bounceback." Does that make sense? I don't think a Kerry advance is mandatory for a positive assessment. The longer we keep Bush relatively weakened, the better. And weakened he still is...

[rinsd]

14. The CW....

is exactly what you are saying. Bush had a very brief "bounce" before Clarke took the stage and has now rendered that even money at best.

[Sparkly]

10. Approval Ratings at 46%?

http://smirkingchimp.com/print.php?sid=15532

Things aren't looking good for the chimp.

[emalejim9]

13. Interesting comments at our Kerry meet-up

At our meet-up last week Bob Mulholland, campaign adviser to the California Democratic Party stated that these pukes would try anything and he did mention electronic tampering. I found this quite surprising that someone heavily connected to the campaign would state this. I walked away from our meeting with confidence that the Kerry team is aware of all the avenues the repukes will explore to pull off this election. He stated this race is going to get nasty come September.

[ParanoidPat]

15. Maintaining the illusion of plausability......

......via distortions in the polling data. :evilfrown:

The task for us is to be ready with the human and machine resources to capture the 'real time' election results on election night from every S.O.S. web site and perform an 'on the fly' analysis of the data based on equipment type utilized in every precinct and the demographic data of those who show up at the polls and how they voted in other recent elections.

A proper statistical analysis of those data sets should quickly expose any questionable results coming from precincts using electronic means to tabulate the results as opposed to precincts using 'other' means based on weighted demographics and pre-election polling data.

I've already started assembling the link list to the incoming vote tallies and a database of equipment types in use on a county by county basis to aid in the analysis of the returns. :evilgrin: (Unfortunately kind of a moving target at the moment!)

I'd be more than happy to share the spreadsheets and pivot tables once they're complete with anyone who wishes to perform their own analysis. (Hint, hint! :) )

The sooner we can provide the analysis for public peer review after the election the better our chances to mount legal challenges if required to the appropriate entities before the results are certified.